Fed will not be in a rush to lower rates: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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현재 시장 여전히 긍정적. S&P500은 약 20배 PER(성장주 25~30배, 가치주 15배 수준)로 비싸지 않다고 봄. 경제가 여전히 강하고 S&P500 2024년 EPS가 상회할 것으로 예상해 올해 8~10% 상승 가능. 연준은 경제가 강해 금리 인하를 서두르지 않을 것이며 고금리 장기화가 주식을 다소 억누를 수 있다고 봄. 다만 강세장이 금리 인하에 크게 의존하지는 않는다고 봄. 성장주 실적 실망 시 모멘텀 변화 가능성을 언급하며 저PER 주식 선호를 시사.

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01. it takes us right to our talk of the tape what stocks are likely to do in the weeks ahead and how the next 5 days will be critical to that outcome let's ask Wharton professor of Finance Jeremy seagull you see him there as he joins us now Professor welcome back happy to be here Scott I'm so happy to have you with us today because we do have so much important lying ahead the state of the market today to you is what I'm still positive on the market um we are selling for 20 times earnings although I mean if you're a growth stock you're selling at 25 to 30 if you're a value stock you're selling at 154 so there is a difference uh overall 20 uh is okay it's not cheap uh and I still think we can get 8 to 10% for the year um uh I said the economy is still very strong I think we're actually going to beat 242 earnings on the S&P 500 um and uh as a result I think stocks could advance I mean earnings haven't been really good though to to start things off or are you kind of disappointed with the way we've started cuz I mean let's be honest they they just have not been good well I mean there's been a few headline ones like Intel particularly Tesla mean that doeses Intel I mean I I could go on I okay I thought I I had read earlier uh that 70% had beat which is I think a little bit lower than the historical average uh which is about 75 78% I mean we have to see how everything falls out uh of this um uh but you know not withstanding um I think all the news about a soft Landing uh and no recession keeps on getting strong stronger and stronger with every day of data that we get so you said I think a moment ago you could get 8 to 10% this year I thought the last last time we spoke you were thinking maybe 10 to 15 um have you have you muted those expectations because what we did towards the end of the year and now where the overall multiple has gone to well I I'm talking about from today we have gone up a few percent so that that does bring us down a little bit and the fact that you know take a look at the multiple um I don't think the FED is I mean we're going to hear next week I think they're going to be really reluctant to say they're going to be lowering rates soon because the econom is so strong they can afford to stay higher for longer that might disappoint the street somewhat although I've maintained that I much rather have a stronger economy with better earnings than the FED rapidly lowering rates because they see a recession so uh I don't think a a bull market really depends on them lowering ratees quickly but nonetheless I think that uh the you know I think the rates are going to be staying higher for longer maybe that will dampen stocks a bit but I still think I mean look at even 8 to 10% that's still a very very good return much better than you're going to get on bonds do you think that the broadening out of the market happens more substantially and that's how you get the 8 to 10 12 whatever percent or is it still going to be a go big and go home Market it's so hard to say I mean you know Tesla uh you know is the first of the mag s to fall if you want to call it that um I I I think you need more earnings disappointments on those growth stocks to change the momentum but let not put that out of uh you know consideration I think there's a story about how fast things can can change uh I mean we we just hearing about Florida passing laws against uh social media I mean what you know what happens I mean there's a lot of anti-tech attitudes what happens if uh the US Congress decides to move in some way against Tech I mean what happens to meta what happens to all these companies that depend on that I mean there's always threats out there it isn't always uh you know smooth sailing and as long as there's those threats out there I I would move to those lower PE stocks they don't need the growth in order to get the great returns uh that I think are are inherent in their company