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hello today i have with me bill ackman one of the world's best known investors and the man behind hedge fund pershing square holdings now a ftse 100 company now um hello bill thanks for joining me sure thanks for having me when we last spoke before christmas you talked about animal spirits being unleashed as societies emerged from lockdowns now we're seeing that in the uk now um but is the route out of the pandemic and economic progress living up to your expectations yes um you know i think the us is in a similar place or about to be in a similar place i mean i'm in new york city i'm first day i'm in my office actually in quite some time and you know uh the streets are crowded there's traffic there are people walking around the people eating outside um so i think i think you see a lot of uh i think the animal spirit the animals are coming out of the uh out of their den so to speak in terms of the um uh the start to 2021 i mean has the investment outlook for the rest of this year changed following developments in q1 particularly joe biden's first hundred days i'm thinking i think the most important factor this year is the pace of vaccination if you look at a country by country basis you see you know india in a very disastrous horrible place hopefully they can they can recover from that uh and you know the uk the us uh israel uh you know the israeli friends sent me some photos and videos on what's going on in israel and his life is back to normal and uh i just think you're going to see that on a rolling basis uh throughout the world and we're the you know so to speak first world um first movers are our big beneficiaries anyway what are your thoughts on the uh the stimulus package and some of uh joe biden's other um initiatives um you know as i say during the his first hundred days are these i mean clearly they're positives are they are they enough i think he's i think i would say people are generally very positive on progress you know outperformance on vaccinations uh very significant stimulus package passed uh checks being sent out um you know some important steps on environmental uh you know rejoining you know uh paris accords uh us starting to you know take a part in these uh kind of important discussions i think the from a market's perspective i think the biggest fear that really relates to tax policy uh there's been some you know the proposal is a you know a near doubling of more than doubling uh in capital gains taxes and uh and a very large infrastructure plan uh you know in the approaching 3 trillion and just i think a bit of fear clearly in the bond market about inflation about the impact of all this uh stimulus hitting the economy along with you know if you think about it you have a combination of vaccinations giving people more confidence you have this you know nearly 2 trillion of stimulus you have infrastructure stimulus and you have incredibly low interest rates and a very i would say benign policy uh from the kind of u.s central bank right so it's really setting up for explosive uh gdp recovery and uh and probably inflation right yeah i was gonna ask so you do buy into that inflation argument we saw the spike in in tbil sort of uh um a while back and uh so that that so that is a real concern for you it is and in fact actually in december january we put on a very large notional if you will short of uh kind of you know the shorter term part of the treasury curve as well as kind of the 10-year treasury curve part of our my day job i think about what we do is finding the greatest business in the world that we can ideally own forever and then hedging kind of the black swan type risks i think the blacks one of the black swan type risks for markets is a real spike in inflation that's not just a three-month spike that's more sustained and also you know meaningfully higher interest rates which i think will affect the discount rates that people use to value companies and i think those could be countervailing you know stock market forces are we talking a 2021 problem here or are we spilling over into 22 and 23.
look i think by i think we're gonna be back to full employment much faster than uh people expect uh you know if you look at the categories of employment where people have lost jobs it's been actually education is one of the big categories well all those jobs are gonna come back you know pretty much immediately or september and then uh hospitality you know the hotel industry the restaurant industry uh you know the theater i think again those are going to come back you know very very quickly i think you know by the later part of the year so i think we'll be back to by the turn of the calendar year something close to full employment and near all-time low uh you know unemployment rates and and those are the triggers for the federal reserve changing you know policy and so i think you could see certainly expectations change uh as as soon as you know the next few months about how accommodated the federal reserve will be i think that could be a stock market factor right so it's not something that that private investors can dismiss they have to take this issue seriously yeah and you want to own businesses with pricing power i think inflation is is going to be real you're going to see wage inflation i mean you know everywhere there are help wanted signs it's very hard to hire people to fill its jobs uh particularly the stimulus package which includes extra unemployment uh you know benefits so it's a lot of pressure on wages i think which i think ultimately is a good thing um but you know could have a again depending on the nature of the business could have a negative impact bill ackman at pershing square holdings thanks very much for joining me today thank you so much appreciate it you
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