저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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결론: 에드 야데니는 올해는 변동성이 클 것이며 본격적인 개선은 내년에나 기대된다는 입장이다. [시장 반등과 조정 성격] - 현재 반등은 과거 고점 대비 약 13% 하락 상태에서 나온 것으로, 야데니는 상승 여력을 30~400 수준으로 봤다. - 베어마켓 여부에 대해서는 S&P500이 아직 공식 베어마켓에 진입하지 않았고 본질적으로 조정(correction)이라고 주장한다. 다만 개별 종목 다수는 이미 베어마켓 수준으로 하락했다는 데 동의했다. - 2020~2021년 PE 급등 이후 대형 기술주의 밸류에이션 조정이 진행된 것으로 봤다. [밸류에이션] - 선행 PE는 19~20배에서 16배까지 떨어졌다가 최근 반등으로 17.5배 수준이다. [금리·연준] - 연준은 금리 인상 몇 차례가 더 남아 있고, 대차대조표 축소(QT2)가 월 950억 달러 규모로 진행될 예정이라 상승 여력을 제한한다고 봤다. - 연준이 6~7월 이후 인상을 멈출 수 있다는 견해에는 일정 부분 공감했다. - 주택시장은 모기지 금리 상승으로 경기침체 조짐이 있다. [경기·지표] - 지역 경기 서베이가 약해 5월 PMI가 50 부근 또는 소폭 하회할 가능성이 있다. - 가격지수는 여전히 사상 최고치 부근이라 인플레이션 정점 확인은 이르다. [인플레이션 전망] - 내구재 인플레이션(중고차 가격 등)은 하락했지만 임대료 인플레이션은 문제로 남아 있다. - 에너지 관련 불확실성도 존재한다. - 6월 CPI 한 번으로 방향이 확정되지는 않으나 인플레이션이 정점을 찍고 하락하는 추세는 유지될 것으로 봤다. [관련 종목·자산 언급] - 명시적 종목 방향 언급은 거의 없으며, 전반적으로 미국 대형 기술주(메가캡)의 밸류에이션 조정 이후 재평가 가능성을 언급했다. [리스크·조건] - 올해는 단일 이벤트로 방향이 정해지지 않는 변동성 장세가 지속된다. - 경기 둔화로 애널리스트 실적 추정치 일부가 하향될 수 있다. - 인플레이션 둔화 시 연준이 완화 기조로 돌아서면 멀티플 확장 가능성이 있다. [출연자 전망] - 야데니는 올해 한 해 조정이 이어질 수 있으며 개선은 내년 이후로 본다. - 현재 상황을 과도한 비관으로 보지 않고 과거 밸류에이션 거품을 해소하는 건강한 과정으로 본다.
다듬은 글
wrdenny research he joins us now live ed welcome it's good to see you thank you scott this comes just what a day or so after you cut your earnings estimates and s p range uh for this year uh correct so what's what do you think of where we are now given this read and this rally i think this is going to continue to be a very volatile year i think it's next year that i'm just anticipating we'll see better times ahead but for now i think the lower inflation is going to help for a while we still have some uncertainties with regards to energy for example up up ahead here but what's really come down quite a bit is durable goods inflation and a lot of that has been used car prices of all things and there's still plenty of room for other durable goods and inflation rates to come down on the other hand rent inflation is going to be a problem so there's still going to be a lot of volatility in the market as these numbers continue to buffer around about about this bounce let's talk about that specifically uh before we get into some other um issues how far do you really think we can go here well scott i don't think anybody knows i i mean i think i'm kind of using 30 4 300 400 as kind of kind of the upside in this particular move here i mean i i don't i don't even know that it's proper to call it a bear market rally because we had a bear market that was an intraday bear market but the reality is it's been a correction based on just a technical uh reading of the drop since january 3rd and here we are down 13 so we're still this is just turning out i think to be a very long correction i don't know that it's actually going to turn out to be a bear market and i think the upside is going to be somewhat limited by the reality that the fed still has a couple of rate hikes to go and i think what we've all forgotten about is there's qt2 up ahead here quantitative tightening uh act two is still ahead and the fed is going to be cutting back its uh balance sheet by something like 95 billion dollars a month after an initial uh cutback of about half that i've got adam parker sitting next to me uh still who i think wants to take a little issue with your characterization of this is simply a correction rather than a bear market is that right i mean i guess it's a semantical thing right he's probably saying there's some definition of you know that's mathematical but i think you're running money in the real world it's been a month it's been bad yeah you know you've got names are down 40 50.
you got a lot of funds that are down 20 so you know whether it trips some academic definition to down 15 or 20 or whatever i don't think anybody cares right that's kind of the point right i mean who cares if we went down 19.9 right uh the s p uh you've had um just huge percentages of stocks that have been well into bear market territory for a while now let's just call it what it is rather than hang out get hung up on some textbook definition of a bear market maybe i hang out with the investment managers that tend to focus on the s p 500 uh and uh the reality is uh that index uh has yet to actually enter a bear market but you're right it's semantics uh the reality is so far this year if you didn't own energy it's definitely been a bear market and but the reality it's been to a large extent extent the correction and the mega cap h stocks uh as we've seen their valuation multiples really taken a dive that's where we've seen a lot of the corruption going on and here we are with this rally back at 17 and a half on the forward p e multiple up from 16 only a few days ago so everybody thought with the benefit of hindsight yes the market was way overvalued at 19 to 20 we got down to 16 and finally that's fair value and then bam we're right back at 17 and a half so it's not as cheap as it was only a few days ago no i know but if you weren't in energy it's uh you know it's been a bear market i mean the energy is only five percent of the s p 500 that tells me that 95 of the s p was a deep bear market yeah i mean look i i i'm not going to get into the semantic argument with you you're right i mean that's the way it's been feeling for most investment managers and most individual investors it's been feeling like a bear market for sure do you believe as i suggested and i brought up ron and sana's name because he put forth a provocative idea that maybe the fed's done enough and now he doesn't mean done enough to to right now he means done enough after june july 50s what do you think about that i think there's something to be said for that fed officials have uh made the case that uh for all the talk about how far behind the inflation curve they are the fact of the matter is they also use forward guidance they've talked a lot and they've certainly tightened credit conditions in that way look we've got recessionary conditions in the housing market developing with a mortgage rate going from three to five percent but of course home prices are also 50 on a two-year basis so things are slowing down uh one of the reasons that i become more costly short term is i started to see these regional business surveys for may and they're really quite weak they do suggest that the national association of purchasing managers index could be pretty close to 50 they actually suggest it could be slightly under 50.
so we're going to know that in on june 1st and that could kind of make the market realize that that things are actually pretty slow and that uh while analyst expectations for earnings uh have been high some of them are going to be coming down i wonder if the you know the the sell the rippers are going to come back uh shortly they feel left out this week it was the by the dippers who won out this week and then the sell the rippers are going to show up again it could be i'm curious about his view on inflation peaking though because if that's really right and that becomes more the consensus narrative over the next couple of months i think people will start to believe more and more the perception will be that the fed will have to get more dovish and then you could get more multiple expansion views for growth and those rippers will be worried yeah ed yeah well look again i i think that a lot of this bear market has in fact been a pe uh meltdown after a pe melt up as a result of the pandemic and so this is in many ways a correction of the overvaluation that we had in the uh mega cap 8 stocks the biggest largest stocks have had a tremendous pe rally in 2020 2021 and a lot of them have given all of that back or or quite a bit of it back so from that point of view um the corrections have been by i guess healthy hasn't felt felt very very good for anybody's health but to the extent that uh this kind of corrects the excesses and sets us up for the market doing better maybe not this year but next year i think that's a good thing more immediately in front of us you know i'm thinking about kind of catalysts up or down that that are here earnings season you know all but over you know nvidia sort of closed the door on that this week at least ones that you know i think have a maybe could have a more outsized impact on on market direction you've got pretty much the market understanding what the fed's going to do uh in not only in june but but in july feels to me like then everything comes down to the cpi uh in june i guess it's in a couple weeks time i don't remember the exact day it might be june 12th or thereabouts but that means we're going to be paying such close attention to that and hinging everything perhaps on it well i think we are but i don't think it's going to be decisive as just the way the data today hasn't been decisive we still see lots of inflation indicators that haven't peaked yet again i watch these regional business surveys very closely and the prices paid in prices received indexes remain in a range near their record high so we're not seeing relief there yet and so i don't think that the june cpi is going to be the number that tells us yes we don't have to worry about inflation anymore and the the fed only needs to do 100 basis points so i i that's the problem with this year nothing's going to really kind of resolve this one way or the other and i think it's going to continue to be just a uh year where uh we all have to get neck braces for the kind of foot that we're seeing in the marketplace yeah and i appreciate it as always enjoy the long weekend and i'll see you again soon and last quick word to you if nothing else it's not going to be definitive on on where we're going but it will if nothing else uh perhaps confirm the trend of at least peak and then declining albeit slightly isn't is intact yeah it's all second derivative right rate of change so people think that cpi is coming lower throughout the end of the year i think that's probably directionally bullish more heads are now all right uh thanks for hanging out with me yeah man have a great weekend 38
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