저자: TaylorHorton · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 미중 무역합의와 최근 신고가 흐름으로 강세를 보이며, 엔비디아·AMD는 풋 매도 중심으로 접근하고 우량 대형주 위주로 기회를 찾는다는 입장. 시장 전반: 지난주 연준 발언과 관세 우려가 있었으나 일요일 미중 합의로 시장이 급등, 목요일 신고가 후 금요일에도 추가 신고가 흐름이라고 설명. VIX가 16 아래로 복귀해 안정 구간이며, 지수는 15일·50일 이동평균 위에 있음. 다만 한 번의 트윗 등으로 추세가 쉽게 바뀔 수 있다고 경고. 엔비디아·AMD: 두 종목 모두 콜 옵션 자금 유입과 거래량 증가가 확인됨. 엔비디아는 221달러 돌파 지지 여부가 핵심이며, 당장 추격 매수보다는 눌림 후 콜 진입 또는 풋 매도를 고려. AMD는 금요일 급락 후 38달러 풋을 매도(풋 크레딧 스프레드)했고 38 위에서 마감하면 최대 수익 기대. 반도체는 미중 무역 진전의 수혜주로 지목. 얼타(ULTA): 실적 후 갭상승했으나 눌림이 나온 상태. 명확한 지지선 확인이 부족해 콜 매수 대신 240달러 풋 매도(약 1,100달러 수익 목표, 리스크 약 4,000달러) 전략 제시. 240 위 마감 시 수익, 하락 돌파 시 숏 가능. 페이스북(META): 목요일 악재 후 194달러 지지선이 붕괴되어 급락, 이후 반등. 195 풋을 매수해 약 40% 수익 실현한 사례를 소개. 장 시작 후 194 아래 하락 여부를 호가·체결 흐름으로 확인해 추가 하락 시 매도 관점. 장기 포지션: SPX 아이언 콘도르 포지션 보유 중으로, 풋은 2945, 콜은 3025 부근에 매도. 현재 하락 완충 여유가 크다고 설명. 출연자 전망: 단기적으로 지수 강세 지속과 반도체·무역 수혜 기대, 개별 종목은 옵션 흐름과 지지선 기준 대응.
다듬은 글
alright guys Monday morning and just like that work back to it so quick recap from last week really interesting me for the market we had Federal Reserve we had your own Powell speech and then we had you know those potential tariffs that were set to get imposed yesterday on Sunday here obviously Trump and China came to an agreement and the market reacted very well so kind of a sketchy market last week as far as you know a few spikes in volatility but things are looking great heading into today so market breaks on Thursday to a brand new all-time high as that news is announced Friday we continue to move towards a new all-time high and if you look here at the hourly chart heading into the open we got another all-time high here so looking like it may be a little bit of a gap to the outside this morning granted the market opens in about one hour and a half but nonetheless we got all those potential catalysts all those you know potential you know market changing events out of the way the market survived and thrived here and then we take a look at VIX guys in the focus trades group you understand the importance here of volatility being below sixteen and as I mentioned we had a few days there where volatility was knocking on the door spike in above sixteen but as the market reacted well to the news that came out volatility got sucked right back out of the market and we find ourselves guys back here in that safe zone the market is well above the 15 period moving average well above the 50 volatility is way back below that sixteen dollar level things are looking good now as you guys know when the market [ __ ] can change really really quick it can take one tweet one little news blip but as it sits here this morning the current uptrend survived right that recent drop there it survived the dip below the 15 it got right back up here volatility leaves the market we're hitting multiple all-time highs and we got another all-time here this morning so like I said things can change quick but as of this morning heading into today market looks really good so now let's take a look at a few different setups here so the first two names I want to cover with you guys here are going to be Nvidia in AMD so last week and AMD in particular just getting crazy call flow so big money buying calls [ __ ] non-stop there on Thursday big time move now it did fade there on Friday along with NVIDIA however we take a look at the two daily charts here for both of these respective stocks and you guys are gonna notice you know a good increase in volume there on Thursday for Nvidia but a really really big increase in buying volume there for AMD so we've got a little bit of volume coming in we had last week some very obvious option flow up to the call side for both of these names looking for continuations this week so those of you in the group I did post recaps of my trades last week and one of them was a little two-day swing Wednesday to Friday on Nvidia here and those calls were turned 160 percent which is pretty damn nice but what we're looking at here guys is kind of a continuation of this potential breakout above this 221 level we get the big move on Thursday and a little bit of sloppiness and volatility here on Friday however we did close above 221 so that's kind of you know the support level that's kind of a threshold here that myself and I'm sure a bunch in the group are gonna be using you know for potential trade ideas so I'm not necessarily eager to jump into this this morning I want to see how things shake out want to get a feel for the tape but we do have some obvious resistance above my best guys guys as far as what I'm looking for is I'll avoid you know looking for the breakout and I'll probably just sell some puts instead however you know we'll see how this opens up we'll see where things fall I would like to get into some more calls on you know a better pullback but you can see we're gapping here this morning so I'm gonna be patient with NVIDIA see what kind of price action we get maybe I'll get into some calls maybe I'm gonna sell the [ __ ] out of some puts now speaking of selling puts here right with AMD I got a position here on Friday so big time move here guys we did get the breakout however nasty fade there on Friday so like I typically do in a name that's in a clear uptrend getting a lot of strength when we get that pullback I'm looking to take advantage of that spike and premium on the put side and sell some of the money puts in the form of a put credit spreads so that is what I did on Friday you get a nasty sell-off here on Friday I come in and I'm someone puts down here at 38 so just like you can short a stock for those of you guys aren't familiar with options selling I shorted the 38 strike puts now if you're new to options trading you probably learnt this lesson the hard way options that expire out the money so for a put if the market is above that price of the put for a call if the market is below that call the strike prices rather they go in to zero so just like a stock I shorted those 38 puts with a put credit spread so as long as we close anywhere above 38 by the expiration of these puts I'm gonna collect the max profit so I've got my trade there for Nvidia I'm gonna leave that one see what it does but these are two names guy really suggest you guys focus on just with all the options flow and these semiconductors particularly are gonna benefit from any kind of progression we make here with China in the trade war so now let's talk a little bit about Ulta all right so with Ulta guys this is a pretty simple one we had earnings recently we get a big gap to the upside I'm a really positive reaction to the earnings and rather than get continuation here we've seen you know a bit of a dip so you get a really big reaction then you get the pullback here so we're still looking at this thing thinking potentially it's gonna make a move to the upside you know but me personally I'm not confident enough and there's no real in a clear level of support here for me to want to buy calls so instead what I can do guys is sell some puts right another put credit spreads so don't got to go into too much detail on this one here's something I'm looking at right we got a drop there on Friday that drop on Friday spikes the premiums on the put side that gives me an opportunity here this morning to come in and for example sell some 25 days to expiration 2:40 puts and for me that's a pretty good risk reward you're risking a little bit less than four K to make about 1100 that's a trade I'll take every day and that's below the 15 period moving average that's below the 50 and if it does end up dropping and tanks below 240 then I'm gonna short the [ __ ] out of it anyways so it's one potential idea here for Ulta looking for a continuation of that earnings gap to the upside but selling puts doesn't necessarily require it to actually make that continuation it could move higher it could go sideways go lower long as it closes anywhere above 240 come that expiration you're gonna collect that thousand bucks alright guys and if the audio on this video sucked up until this point my bad for whatever reason when I keep my phone on my desk it sounds like a little bit of auto-tune so threw the phone back now Facebook Facebook was a fun trade here on Friday for those of you guys in the group you know I really don't day trade all that much anymore but when I do looks a little something like this so Thursday afternoon negative news comes out her Facebook and they blow through this level of support like it never existed all the way down to 194 so I'm sitting here Thursday night probably you know 11 o'clock midnight and I'm just looking through charts looking for potential trade ideas of the next day and I noticed that in the after-hours action this thing's making this crazy bounce to the upside now typically guys when something makes a nasty nasty drop like this on pretty big selling pressure right you take a look at the volume there they're dumping the hell out of this thing typically when something makes a nasty drop like that it's not just gonna rebound right back to that same level so I'm sitting here that night I'm looking at this thing bounce and I'm kind of calling [ __ ] right I don't think it's gonna rip right back to 200 you know 199 200 so what I was looking for here on Friday morning was to get into some puts you know with confirmation from the tape so really focusing on reading the tape with the group so we're looking at the level two here and we open up right around here there's no buyers in sight right there's still some selling pressure on the ask but it was clear as hell on the bid nobody's coming in to buy this thing so what I did guys is I bought a one 95 strike put and the game plan was to exit as soon as we hit that level of support right I'm not trying to get involved in bounces I'm not trying to hold on for more profits looking for the easy move so typically the easiest move is going to be the move right back down to that level of support that's what took place here and that was about a 40% profit in about 15 minutes and for those of you guys in the group I posted that trade recap in the members area now as far as what we're looking for today with confirmation from the tape potentially look on the shore this thing below 194 once again so it's one thing guys some identified level of support it's a whole nother level to your trading to be able to see on the level to on the time and sales whether or not the buyers who can hold that up as support or coming in or whether there's enough selling pressure and not enough buyers that this thing's gonna crack through 194 and continue to sell off so this is something you guys really got to think about you know is it enough to have a simple level of support everybody's doing that [ __ ] right everybody's looking at the chart and picking a level of support and looking to go short underneath that support but if you don't know how to read the tape and it's kind of its kind of a coin flip so we'll see what Facebook's looking like there this morning on the level 2 we do get a drop back although 194 with some big selling pressure on that ask we'll probably be looking to take that move to the downside but that's about it guys along with that right I do have my bigger picture trades right now which are my iron condors on the SPX I got about two of these on right now and they expire over the next few weeks and I've got put sold all the way down here I believe hold on let's see all right let us see no I got a few condors on right now but let's go take a look at January thirds and work thirty to twenty and then we are at twenty nine forty-five so I've got puts sold way down her at twenty nine forty five all right so I got crazy crazy crazy cushion there on the put side and I've got calls up here at thirty to twenty five right that's my bigger picture trade guys I can leave that on it happens it happens so I wish you guys the best of luck today for those of you guys and girls in the focused trades group I'll see you at 9:00 a.m.
thirty minutes before they open and we're gonna trade live together until about 10:30 so we'll go together for about an hour hour and a half see if we can make some money
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