저자: TaylorHorton · 외국인
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S&P500은 15일 이평선 위에서 지지되며 상승 추세가 유지되고 있어 강세 흐름으로 본다. 시장 구조: S&P500은 10월 초부터 상승 추세이며, 15일 이평선(녹색) 지지가 확인됨. 연준 발표와 이번 주 경제지표, 관세 이슈가 변수로 언급됨. 주요 가격대: S&P500 저항선은 약 3,15x~3,25x 부근이며, 상단 신고가 저항은 약 3,150 수준으로 제시됨. 변동성: VIX가 16 아래로 내려오면 시장이 안정적이라고 봄. 현재는 16 아래로 복귀해 긍정적이나, 관세 관련 트윗 등 돌발 리스크는 남아 있다고 경고함. 샵(SHOP): 380달러 돌파를 기다리고 있으나, 돌파 전 세력의 조작성 움직임(등락 반복)이 있어 확인된 돌파 전까지는 인내가 필요하다고 조언함. 380 콜옵션 프리미엄이 돌파 기대로 올랐다가 하락하는 패턴을 경계함. 엔비디아(NVDA): 주요 돌파 기준선은 약 215~220달러 구간으로 제시됨. 스퀴즈 구간에서 저렴한 옵션(낮은 IV)을 30~60일 만기로 매수하는 전략을 언급했으며, 본인은 230 행사가 콜을 30~40일 만기로 매수했다고 밝힘. 전략 및 리스크: 이번 주는 인내가 최선이며 과도한 개별 종목 익스포저는 피해야 한다고 강조함.
다듬은 글
yo yo top of the damn morning to you guys so I know what you're probably saying to yourself T you look pretty damn good in glasses and I think so too guys I appreciate it but it's about 6:00 in the morning focus trades member is going to get you guys ready with a few setups and a few big picture things to keep an eye on here today and I want to share that with those of you guys who follow me on Instagram and follow me on YouTube so first thing we're going to take a look at guys here is just a bigger picture update on the market as you know we had the Fed yesterday and there's a bunch of catalysts this week you know kind of hanging above our head we have economic data today jobless claims tomorrow is Friday we've got retail sales like I said we had the Fed yesterday and now we have you know these potential new tire that's going to get imposed this coming Sunday a lot of [ __ ] going on this week so we the focused trades group especially me personally we use the S&P 500 and we use the 15 period moving average the green moving average right here to get a sense of the current trend so the current trend here started early October it's been a very fun market and even on the pull backs here guys we've been supported at the 15 now we did briefly drop below the 15 the market quickly reversed we got right back above the upside and even on the pull back here into the Fed we got support in above the 15 the market did bounce yesterday so we still have a few things you know hanging above our head especially those potential tariffs coming into place however as of this morning the market does look good we're being supported nicely above the 15 period moving average as we would expect to see you know in a good uptrend and now we've got resistance up above at that previous all-time high so we take a look at that pre market price action the market is heading to the upside a little bit here this morning so for you day traders out there key levels and keep an eye on today as far as resistance goes right we have there's a resistance right here at about three 15 25 whatever you guys want to call it all right market runs up big we get some resistance you try to make another attempt we get some resistance we get that fade we come right back in here this morning we've seen this level as a resistance again so for you day traders out there there's one initial level of resistance to watch here this morning that you might want to keep an eye on now as far as bigger picture levels of resistance obviously we have the all-time up here around 315 50 ish so the market looks good right now guys we've gotten back above the 15 and even with all the catalyst hanging above our head right now things do seem pretty good so those are the two key levels I'm focusing on here to get a feel for the next potential move of the market is it a breakout above all-time highs do we drop below the 15 and potentially reverse those are a few things guys that I'm looking at now most importantly and if you're in the focus trades group and your ass should be in the focus trades group we've been talking a lot about the role that volatility plays in the market especially for us as options traders I'm not going to go into a full-blown lesson here on volatility guys end of story volatility above 16 the market can be sketchy choppy or pretty damn ugly volatility below 16 it's usually smooth sailing so you know with all the catalysts this week the Fed trade war yada yada yada we've seen some pops in volatility however we're dropping back below that 16 dollar level we take a look here at the pre market price action in volatility is still fading so I wouldn't say they were out of the woods just yet Trump could send out a tweet today regarding those tariffs he could send out a tweet tomorrow and there's no telling how that whole situation is gonna unfold over the weekend so right now guys as traders were taking things day to day however heading into this Thursday morning VIX is below 16 that's a good sign the market is back above the 15 that's another good sign we'll see how things unfold here but those are two big picture things to you guys to keep in mind now let's talk about Nvidia and shop all right so as far as shop goes right everybody is waiting for that 380 breakout right now that's where shop had found some support before getting dumped in a pretty big fashion we've turned around here and you can see guys right the choppiness and is kind of a lot of the manipulation and crap that's taking place beneath that 380 levels so this is a breakout I'm looking for I'm sure a handful of guys and girls on our group are looking for as well but patience is going to be required when you get a name like shop that's been moving a lot as of late and when you get a name like shop heading up towards a bigger picture potential breakout level like that it usually isn't going to be that easy well tend to see guys is a lot of moves towards that level of resistance where really it's nothing but manipulation the market makers are trying to pull you in you get ready for that breakout so you're jumping into out the money calls you're loading up and then things fade all right it goes back towards that breakout level it fades and it can do that time and time again and to give you guys kind of an idea of what often times has taken place in a situation like that if we look at this Friday's expiration three ad strike calls right here's what's been going on with those calls this week now if we take a look at that last you know good move towards that 380 level here on the 9th again everybody's waiting for the breakout right it's a bigger picture of stock it's a big move in name so here's what happens is that the market makers have pushed that thing towards that breakout level everybody's excited alright and when I say everybody I'm talking about us the small traders right here's what happens guys the market makers move the stock towards that breakout level everybody gets excited you start jumping into the calls now if you look at these 380 calls people are jumping in here at 9 bucks right people are jumping in here at 10 bucks in anticipation of that breakout oftentimes that first breakout ain't gonna be the one to fire you can see it failed over here as well so here's what happens guys is that market makers push the stock towards that level we jump in we're buying calls for 9 bucks 10 bucks 11 bucks and then the breakout never takes place the stock heads right back down and now think about the psychology of what's taking place here you've been waiting for that breakout it looks like it's moving towards that level right human emotions FOMO we don't want to miss out we could jump it into these calls 9 bucks a contract 10 bucks a contract and then the next few days those calls get crushed so you bought these calls with 10 bucks the next few days shop goes on not a big pullback right a very modest pullback and your calls are getting [ __ ] cry so what do you do you're gonna hold on to these things till they go to zero if you're smart you're not going to so you're buying them at 10 you're getting rid of them at 6 bucks you're getting rid of them at 5 bucks if you're dumb enough to hold on you're getting rid of them it's 3 to 2 dollars a contract the market makers pull you in you're paying a pretty penny for these calls then they push this thing right back down so when you buy the call for 10 and you're getting rid of that thing four five four three bucks a contract and guess who you're selling it to right the big money the smart money so oftentimes guys everybody's waiting for that break out they're gonna rope you in a few times so they can buy the calls back from you at a discount and now think about this if the smart money is loading up on these calls at two bucks three bucks four bucks a contract when that breakout finally happens and I'm not saying it's going to happen this week but just think about the psychology behind it they're roping you in so they can get those calls that are freaking discount so they're loading up on those calls as you're taking a big fat loss two three four bucks a contract they're loading up at that range when this thing finally breaks out these calls that they're loading up on four to three bucks they're going to be getting rid of room for 10 11 12 dollars think about the return on that that's sometimes a game that's being played here so I say all this guys to say that with a name like shop you really want to wait for the confirmation of an actual breakout whether it be by looking at the tape looking at options flow a combination of the two these bigger picture breakouts they can be a lot of manipulation so keep that in mind be a little bit cynical in your thinking and wait for the true move above 30 you 380 you try getting in here right you're suffering some suffering for some FOMO that's kind of what can happen so we're looking for that breakout but we are being open-minded to the idea that it may not be as easy there's a quick push towards that level take a little bit of chop but when that moves takes place you bet your ass we're going to be ready for it and the last name guys want to talk about this morning is Nvidia so by far as far as individual names go this is a focus of mine right now and a few levels here for a video right now we dig it above a key to 15 breakout level here this week I am removing nicely not to 15s giving this thing a little bit trouble but bigger picture right now guys is that we're looking for the move here in Nvidia above this sorry I'm blind as [ __ ] to 21 to 22 levels so the significance is this this level is that you know support support support support right support they accumulate it and it goes on a big move but check this out right look at the dump that comes in underneath that same level they try to run it back it gets dumped again right and now months and months later we head back towards that level on the gap we get resisted in right back down so this is a key level breakout here for NVIDIA and there's a few ways you can go about playing breakouts right for a swing trader you can sit there you can wait for the breakout once it happens you can take your entry and see if it continues to move in your favor another alternative there guys is that when you identify a stock inside of something that we call the squeeze misses when options are gonna be their cheapest right the premiums are low IV is low so I mean you can begin to accumulate calls for 30 60 days to expiration inside of that squeeze often times you're up a few hundred percent by the time that thing actually makes the breakout because you bought those calls and they were super cheap so yesterday I bought a two thirty strikes call that expires in about thirty forty days inside of the squeeze now over the next few weeks if we do break out that call is gonna gain tremendous value because I bought it when it said its cheapest so you know we will be talking about a few different ways to swing this thing in the focused trades group but that is a key level but looking for a breakout on right there guys if we take a look this morning all right we're making a little move here pre market but that's about it guys alright as far as a bunch of opportunities I'm only focusing on a few names right now because I'm taking everything in the consideration the Fed which just passed yesterday the economic data the potential tariffs right coming this Sunday you combine that with the fact that we have seen volatility you know knocking on the door as of late I'm not looking for crazy exposure in individual names so the names that I am gonna trade there's a very specific game plan like a shop like an Nvidia that game plans going to me stay out of trouble and should be your number one goal as a trader so right volatility is fading but it's still knocking on a door so I wouldn't say we're safe just yet and with all that being said guys this is a week that I do think um patience is your best bet so focus trades members I will see you guys this morning for our live trading session will begin or about 30 minutes before the market opens for those of you who follow me on IG in here on YouTube if you're not in the group yet as a link in the description for a free 10-day trial to the group if you like the group it's only ten dollars a month afterwards and that seven gets you in the chatroom the live streams and just our family in general so I wish you guys the best of luck today kick some [ __ ] ass and I'll talk to you in the next video duce
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