저자: YanVanak · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 금은 안전자산 수요와 저금리 환경으로 상승 여력이 크다는 주장. 금 상승 배경: 중국 등 안전자산 수요, 통화 가치 하락(평가절하) 우려, 일본 등 통화정책 이슈가 금에 유리하다고 주장. 금 랠리 진단: 2016년 초 금 가격 10% 이상 상승, 연초 대비 12% 이상으로 2016년 최고 성과 자산이라고 언급. 금은 이전 몇 년간 부진했음. 금 전망: 변동성 확대와 연준 금리인상 속도 둔화 기대가 상승 요인. 일부 기관은 금 가격 $1,500 이상을 예상. 다만 주식시장 안정과 연준의 긴축 지속 시 상승 모멘텀이 약화될 수 있음. 포트폴리오 배분: 일반적으로 금은 전체 포트폴리오의 약 5% 수준을 헤지 목적으로 권장. 장기 보유 관점. 금광주 견해: 금광 기업들(주니어 골드)이 크게 상승할 수 있다고 언급하며 Bruce Kish 차트를 근거로 제시. 일부 금광주는 두 배 상승 가능성 언급. 출연자 기타 발언: 주요 기술적 분석가와 투자자들의 의견을 인용하며 금 매수 관점에 동의함. 리스크: 주식시장 안정, 연준의 금리 정책 유지 시 금 가격 조정 가능성.
다듬은 글
so I mean gold goes up and everyone's against gold — I think Gold's going much higher, much higher. Why? Because it's a safe haven — if you're China, it's a safe haven; if you're in any currency that could be debased. If the Japanese had any horse sense, they'd be buying gold, Jim.
(Jim 질문)
Is it too late to get in the rally? No, absolutely not. Gold is still down substantially from where it was. A lot of these gold plays are being downgraded by analysts who don't believe in them — particularly Range Gold, which is the absolute best. Gold is so far down that it can still be bought. And the junior golds — Bruce Kish has given you a really thriving chart — they could double.
Gold is starting to shine after being shunned by investors for years. The heavy metal is seeing gains today — prices were up nearly 3.5%, its best trading day since the end of 2014. For the year, gold is up more than 12%, making it the best-performing asset of 2016 so far.
Jackie D'Angelus tells us what's behind gold's move and whether the trend higher might continue. Gold prices have gotten off to a good start in 2016, a more than 10% pop due to volatility in the global equity market. The year-to-date move is a departure from losses in gold over the last three years. It's a mixture between a return to safety and optimism that the Fed won't be as aggressive at raising rates as predicted last year. Since the beginning of the year, gold has been the darling for investors. If you look at most commodities, they're down on the year. Equity markets are very volatile, so investors are looking at gold. Today's action is a great example: lower equities, lower oil, giving gold a nearly $40 lift. Moves like that were commonplace just a few years ago; they've become increasingly rare.
So will the gold bulls have their moment in 2016? Many are forecasting that bullion could continue to run, with some estimates as high as $1,500. I would expect that because of the volatility in the stock market, and I think it will continue at least for the first half of the year. Investors are going to look to gold even more. There are risks, though: equities could settle down, and the Fed could find enough evidence to stay the course in its tightening. If those events play out, gold could lose the glitter it gained early on.
(Jackie D'Angelus 리포트 마무리, Yan Vanak 출연)
Joining us to talk about gold and whether it belongs in your portfolio is Yan Vanak, CEO of Van Eck Global. Yan, welcome, good to see you as always. Is it as simple as people going into gold now because they're afraid of everything else?
Actually, I think what's driving the rally in gold this year — you have to step back and look at what's been happening since the global financial crisis. Central banks around the world have been cutting interest rates. Gold really competes with interest rates, because gold doesn't pay any coupon or dividend. But when interest rates are negative around the world — which they started being in Europe last year, and in Japan just a couple of weeks ago — gold looks more attractive.
What is the best way to add it to your portfolio, and how much of a typical portfolio should have exposure? Generally, we don't advise a very large investment in gold — something like 5% or so. It's really meant to be a hedge to an overall portfolio over the long term. But you do have these risks to the financial sector now, and the question of whether the Fed can really get the economy going, or whether it has to go back to a QE4-type situation. So we think this is a really great time to be buying the golds.
Where are the bull markets? Well, first there's the bull market in gold. I was still reading my Twitter feed, and people said, "Why didn't you tell me that gold was going to go up?" I did. Bruce Kish — I just put a link to his stuff. He is the hottest technician in this market. Kamam — I'm on Real Money. I tell people Real Money is saving and making more money for people than I have ever seen it do since I set it up, literally 16 years ago. Mitch, Doug Cass — they've been dead right, and I think you've got to listen. Cass basically said, "Listen, I was negative about the FANGs," and now he's a little more neutral. And he is saying buy gold, buy the junior golds. I am in total agreement — I think they're absolutely, just terrific.
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