저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
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2016년 2월 워런 버핏 인터뷰. 2008~2009년 금융위기 당시 정책 대응이 적절했다고 평가하며, 당시 시스템 붕괴 직전까지 갔다고 회고함. 버크셔의 BNSF(벌링턴 노던 산타페) 철도 인수(260억 달러)는 미국 경제에 거는 '올인' 베팅이라고 설명. 철도는 효율·친환경 측면에서 트럭보다 우월하며 필수 인프라로 장기 존속한다고 봄. 철도 사업은 자본집약적이고 규제 산업이라 막대한 설비투자가 필요하며, 기대 수익률은 합리적 수준이면 충분하다고 언급. 석탄 운송 비중이 크지만 발전용 석탄은 장기적으로 줄어들 것이라 봄. 현금에 대해서는 항상 나쁜 투자이며 과잉 보유는 불만족스럽다고 밝힘. 달러는 장기적으로 가치가 하락할 것이라 보고, 현금 대신 좋은 사업 보유를 선호. 디플레이션 가능성은 낮고 인플레이션 경향이 있다고 전망. 철도 인수 과정에서 기존 보유 철도주(타 철도회사 주식)는 거래 편의를 위해 매도했다고 언급. BNSF 소액주주 보상을 위해 A클래스 주식 50:1 분할을 진행했다고 설명.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett is here as you know he is perhaps the world's most respected investor he is also chairman and CEO Burj Hathaway he has been on this program many times I last spoke with him over a year ago at the peak of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression at that time he said that America had been struck by an economic Pearl Harbor but much has changed since then and he's here to tell us how he views a global and American economy and Recovery his own company reflects of progress made in recent months last week Berkshire hathway struck a $26 billion deal to buy all of Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad the largest acquisition in company history he called the deal an all-in wager on the American economy he's in New York for a town hall event that he held with Bill Gates at Columbia University yesterday he graci and agreed to stay over in New York an extra night and I am pleased to have a good friend of this program and a good friend of mine back at this table welcome thank you Charlie I'm pleased to be here it's great to see you uh it has been certainly from the middle of 200 to the middle of 2009 one incredible year one incredible year and one to a lifetime I hope yes tell me about it for you well it it was it really was an extraordinary time in this country we came closer to a financial meltdown than than uh certainly any time I've ever seen and probably in certain respects even there was even more Panic than the the Great Depression because it came on so fast and so unexpected and and uh and the the whole country wanted to deleverage corporations individuals and fortunately we had a government that responded and it was you know it was when we talked last that it it was little question uh of whether Congress would respond like they should they they they finally did and I I I I I felt they would in the end I mean in the in the end they come together for things that are this vital to the country but but we had the right people in in in Washington if if if we' had a group that had uh behaved like a deer in the headlights uh uh that deer would have gotten run over so pson and banki and gner were the right people at the right time and you don't know what might have happened if others had been in those positions of power I can think of others I'm not going to name them but I can think of others where where the ending would have would have been with us in the abyss rather than just peering down into it uh you made some Investments during that period right General Electric Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs uh but you just pulled out the big elephant gun well yeah we may have used most of our powder that said you said I stretched to the last nickel for this one yeah why did you do it well I I felt it was an opportunity to buy a a business that that is is going to be around for a 100 or 200 years it's that's that's interwoven with the American economy in a way that if the American economy prospers the the business will prosper it it it is the most efficient way of moving uh Goods in the country it's the most uh environmentally friendly way of moving goods and both those things are going to be very important but the biggest thing is the United States is going to going to do well I mean we can't move the railroad to China or India I fig do that so so it it you know it's a little like the riv that song about New York we have to make it here or we can't make it anywhere and you know it but it does move 400 it moves a ton of of goods 470 miles on one gallon of diesel it replaces a train replaces 280 trucks on the road and it it emits far less into the atmosphere that's damaging than than Trucking and and it moves 40 what I'm talking about the whole rail industry it moves 40% of the goods plus and you have New Port of entries like Houston that bring in a lot of goods through the Panama Canal and we're going to have more people in this country and they're going to be using more Goods over time and and sure there's a bad year from time to time and in the next 100 years there'll probably be 15 bad years but but and I don't know what order they'll appear but I also know the railroads will be essential to the country now when you called Charlie M and said I'm thinking about this did did he say r on Warren or did he say how about this well if if Charlie if Charlie said r on Warren I think I have the wrong number no I mean that would be the wrong number not that might be my wife know but but Charlie no Charlie Charlie Charlie gave it kind of a low-level Grumble and and and that is that is real endorsement from Charlie but I mean he also pointed out it he said that you know there was this was a regulated industry sure this was an industry that was Capital intensity very Capital this was an industry um you spend money unionized it was unionized you spend money in this business regularly every day you're spending a lot of money repair track or you know ad Rolling Stock whatever it may be so it's Capital intensive and and uh and it is it is regulated and it will continue to be regulated it will continue to be Capital intensive I think that what the service provided by railroads is so important uh in in many ways I mean it it it it's the right way to move Goods around the country to the ENT that you can do it and and it's far far more attractive in terms of uh global warming than than than using trucks for example so it will be here and if we get a a reasonable return on the added capital investment because it'll take added capital investment uh we'll do okay and reasonable returns good enough reasonable returns good enough Charlie I mean you know 50 years ago I was looking for spectacular returns but I can't I can't find I can't get them you know I mean we have we have8 or 10 billion dollar to invest every year and we're in the utility business and it's the same thing there I mean when we build electric generation or something of the sort we shouldn't expect a spectacular return we're building things that are essential to society and and people need our services they really don't have any choice in the in the case of the electric utilities for example and sometimes in case of rail and and we should get a decent return on that it's enough to encourage us to keep putting money into the business but we're not entitled to spectacular returns uh you carry coal well that's a that's a big one in terms of tonnage yeah very and if the fact we wean oursel off coal is that a big problem well we will wean ourselves off coal over time but we we can't change the 40% of electric generation that goes comes from coal we can't change that next week or next month or next year but we will reduce it over time and we should reduce it over you can add other things to carry changes will there will there will be more grain to move and there'll be more all kind chemicals or whatever it may be uh there will be more things moving around this country 10 or 20 or 30 years from now knowing your idea about Moes uh is it a pleasing idea that no one is likely to get into the railroad business well if they wanted if they wanted to reproduce uh the Burlington Northern Santa Fe you know it might take a hundred billion dollar or so and then you 100 billion years they'd have to be a real sport and they also modernized today are they not oh enormously enormously they they the rail Roads Take a railroad like BNSF they're they're moving far more ton ton m of product uh uh with with less less in the way of people uh Less in the way of fuel uh rails has become far more efficient over the years there were there were a million and a half people employed in the rail industry after World War II now there are SE about less than 200,000 in the United States and they're moving far more good so it's really become effici you watch those 130 unit trains double stacked you had other railroad companies in your portfolio you're selling them uh I I've already sold them yeah I've done that just to facilitate the transaction I think I think they're good Investments but I I would have held them if if this hadn't happen uh when you look at the future there's also the argument made uh that that this is something that goes with your philosophy today get out of cash and get into assets cuz we don't know what's going to happen to the dollar well cash is always a bad investment Ian when people said cash is King a year ago I mean that's crazy I mean cash wasn't producing anything and it was sure to go down in value over time and then you always want to be sure you have enough I mean Like Oxygen you want to be sure it's around you know but you don't need to have you don't need to have excessive amounts of it around and cash uh we will always have enough cash around but anytime we have Surplus cash around I'm unhappy I mean I would much rather have good businesses than cash and and uh we found a chance in the last year thereabouts to deploy we we came in with something over 40 billion in cash and we've got about 20 billion now and we've had some earnings so we we put a lot of cash to work and I like that no I much further own a good business uh than have cash uh and it is a hedge against the dollar well you can say all assets are a hedge against the dollar I mean but all you know is that the dollar is going to be worth less 10 20 30 years from now I say worth less not worthless right you want to watch that but it it will be you know and that's that's true of almost every currency that I can think of uh the question is how much uh it depreciates in value but cash cash is not a place to that now why is that the dollar is going to be worth less because we'll we'll we'll print more of them in relation to the amount of goods that are moving uh you know if we if we dropped if we dropped a million dollars of cash into every household in the United States today everybody feel very good except the people that invested in things that were denominated dollars you know ex exactly yeah there will be no tendency uh toward deflation in in in this country over time or or virtually any a tendency toward inflation absolutely okay all the conversations we've had I never thought that I would sit with you and we would talk about a 50 to1 split class stock I mean this had to be a hard one or not I think I had a lobotomy one night I didn't know about it it is it is not it's not natural for me but but it it was needed to facilitate the small shareholders of BNSF getting the same deal
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