저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경기는 거품 붕괴 직전이며 스태그플레이션이 올 것이므로 금·은을 지금 사라. 정치·경기 전망: 공화당 하원 상실에도 경기 호황은 이어지겠지만 이는 거품이며, 2007~2008과 유사한 지표(주택, 자동차, homebuilder 주가 붕괴)가 나타나고 있다. 재정·정책: 민주당 의회와 트럼프가 협력해 케인즈식 대규모 부양책(적자 확대, 저소득·중산층 중심 감세, 수표 지급)을 펼칠 것이며 법인세 인상 가능성도 있다. 금리·달러: 연준은 결국 금리를 0 수준으로 내리고 양적완화를 재개하겠지만 자산가격이 아니라 소비재 가격만 오를 것이다. 장기금리는 국채·달러 동반 매도로 상승할 가능성이 크다. 부동산: 상업용 부동산과 주택 시장의 거품이 2008년보다 크며, 기관 매수자가 매도자로 돌아서 큰 폭의 부동산 붕괴가 온다. 금·은 전망: 금 가격은 1,220달러 부근이며 1,200달러 아래는 강한 매수 지지가 있어 하방 리스크가 적고 상승 여력은 크다. 중앙은행도 달러 기축통화 지위 약화를 보고 금을 매입 중이다. 리스크 및 결론: 스태그플레이션과 사회주의 정책이 2020년 선거 전후에 힘을 얻을 수 있으니 지금 금·은을 매수해 자산을 보호하라. 영상 중 특정 한국·미국 개별 종목 언급은 없음. 출연자는 쇼의 진행자로서 자사(SchiffGold) 판매를 권유함.
다듬은 글
investors seem to be breathing a sigh of relief that the Republicans only lost control of the House of Representatives and not only retained control of the US Senate but actually increased their a majority I think the feeling is that even if we have a bit of gridlock for the next two years that the economic boom that began when Donald Trump was elected will continue during the next two years and maybe the president is going to be well positioned to win reelection and maybe take back the House of Representatives in 2020 however I think investors are once again being much too complacent they are confusing an economic boom for a bubble because that is in fact what we have and the air is already obviously coming out of this bubble but the problem is since so few people actually understand that we're in a bubble they don't understand that it's pop and they don't even hear the sound of the air coming out but if you look around you see all sorts of indicators that are very reminiscent of 2007 2008 just before the bottom dropped out of the economy and the markets if you look at the housing data it hasn't been this week since 2007 2008 homebuilder stocks are collapsing real estate homes our best pilots are piling up all over the country it's only a matter of time before prices fall through the floor look at what's happening in the auto sector people are still looking in the rearview mirror and thinking that there's a boom and they don't realize that they're staring a bust right in the in the in the in the windshield meanwhile I think that those people who think that gridlock will end up being good are mistaken I think we're not going to have gridlock especially when the economy moves into recession as the stock market moves in to bear market I think President Trump will be working with a Democratic Congress to pass the next round of economic stimulus and I think when the stimulus has to be done with the cooperation of the Democrats in the House it is going to be a much more Keynesian style stimulus that has a lot more government spending then would have been the case had it simply been an all Republicans stimulus so I think there'll be much larger deficits associated with the next stimulus there will probably be some tax cuts as well but they will be targeted just to the lower income and the middle-income taxpayers may be stimulus checks will be mailed out directly to taxpayers but there will not be any reductions in the marginal rate of tax in fact there may even be some increases in the corporate tax as the Democrats will be blaming the collapse on the tax cuts and the deregulation that happened prior to their taking the house in fact I do believe that the 2020 election is not going to be about who gets credit for the economic boom but who gets the blame for the economic bust but in the meantime if we're gonna have even bigger deficits and an even more inflationary stimulus with a Democratic Congress that means the move in gold and silver is going to be even larger you know the price of gold now is trading around twelve hundred and twenty dollars an ounce we have been basing a little bit north of 1200 I don't think there's much downside risk from here in the price of gold I think there is tremendous buying below 1200 if we even get down there again I don't expect it to stay below 1200 for long you have major buying not only by investors but central banks who can see the writing on the wall the dollars days as the reserve currency are numbered it's amazing how many people haven't connected the dots between the rate hikes that we have today and the rate cuts that we're gonna see tomorrow because all of these hikes have simply pricked the mother of all bubbles this bubble is bigger than the housing bubble and the stock market bubble in fact even the housing bubble we have right now is bigger than the one that popped in 2008 the reason is that interest rates have been kept much lower for much longer and so the market has been far more distorted and it's not just the real the residential market it is the commercial market that is going to be particularly vulnerable although one of the things that mitigated the collapse of the housing market last time was the influx of institutional buyers who were buying up single-family homes and renting them out that kind of put a floor the market I don't think those buyers are gonna be here when this bubble deflates in fact I think they're gonna be selling as interest rates go up and their rental income is inadequate to cover these higher costs I think the institutional home buyers are gonna become sellers and they're gonna be competing with individuals trying to unload homes they can no longer afford and the banks trying to sell homes that they have already foreclosed so this is gonna be a major real estate collapse a stock market collapse the Fed is going to be going back to zero obviously they don't see this coming yet just like they were oblivious to what happened in in 2008 they will reluctantly or belatedly slash interest rates and relaunch quantitative easing but they're gonna be very surprised by the results rather than another bubble that lifts asset prices the only prices that are going to be going up are gonna be consumer goods as the dollar collapses and the cost of living goes through the roof for Americans this is not going to be the third time's the charm when it comes to the Fed and their monetary magic it is as I've been saying three strikes you're out but if you if you want to avoid going down you need to protect yourself you need to preserve your wealth you need to buy gold and silver and you need to buy it now the sooner the better I think the upside is tremendous you have a tremendously mispriced asset right now because so few people perceive the dangers that lie ahead it's the same people who couldn't see the crisis coming in 2008 that are equally as blind to a larger crisis that is staring them in the face and that's because they never understood why the financial crisis happened and that's why they think the Federal Reserve solve the problems they don't realize that the Federal Reserve simply made the problem that they created worse we kick the can down the road in 2008 we finally caught up to that can the problem is it's too big to kick if they try they're gonna break their foot I think that the Fed is gonna lose control of the long-term long end of the bond market even though they're gonna be slashing rates and printing money to buy a bonds I think long-term interest rates are gonna rise anyway there may be a knee-jerk reaction where the initial move is down but then rates are going higher as dump Treasuries and the dollar together it's going to be I think the perfect storm this is stagflation except now that we have the democrats in congress i think we're gonna have even more stagnation and even more inflation than it had had just been the republicans but of course the scariest thought of all is that the Republicans and Donald Trump take the blame for this train wreck and that the solution that the American voters grasped for is socialism the Democratic Party is already now the Socialist Party and sub several socialist candidates were elected this time I think there'll be a lot more successful with their message in 2020 when the economy is a disaster when we're in stagflation and so before that happens you want to make sure that you've bought as much gold and silver as you feel is appropriate if you've been waiting for a time to add to your position don't wait any longer by now if you've haven't bought any gold or silver now is the time to start buying talk to some of my representatives at shift gold we've got the best prices online and we'll make sure you get the right gold at the right price
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