저자: FaustoBotelho · 외국인
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결론: 미국 주식시장이 대폭락 직전이며 그 여파로 비트코인도 하락할 가능성이 크다. 미국 증시 전망: S&P500과 다우가 이중 고점(double top)을 형성했고 지지선 이탈이 확인되면 하락 추세 전환이 확정된다고 주장. 피보나치 첫 되돌림 레벨 기준 약 34.6% 하락 가능성을 제시하며, 2008년 서브프라임 당시 급락 사례를 근거로 들었다. 근거 지표: 양적완화와 시장 유입 자금으로 부풀려진 버블, 미국 연방부채 21.7조 달러 언급. 유가 급락은 세계 경제 수축의 신호로 해석. 다우 운송지수와 일본 닛케이도 유사한 되돌림 후 이중 고점 형성 중이라고 설명. 지수별 수치: 지지선 이탈 시 약 12.2% 추가 하락 가능, 이후 1차 피보나치 지지 약 1770~1780 부근 도달 전망. 비트코인 전망: 장기적으로는 10만 달러 도달 가능성을 유지하나, 단기적으로는 주식 급락에 동조해 하락할 것으로 봄. 6000~5800달러 심리적 지지선 이탈 시 4000달러까지 빠르게 하락 가능성 언급. 알트코인: 비트셰어(BTS) 지지선 이탈 주목, 메이커(MKR)·이오스·카르다노·네오·리플·버지 등은 확정적 방향 없이 관망. 카르다노는 역헤드앤숄더 가능성 언급. 리스크: 하락 시나리오 실현 여부는 지지선 이탈 확인에 달려 있으며, 발표자 스스로 확신을 유보한 종목이 다수.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to our Channel I am f b broadcasting from Brazil and here we use our experience in technical analysis and try to extract logical indications about the future behavior of the crypto prices nowadays as I've been showing in previous videos we have to talk about the stocks stock market in the US because I think there's a crash going on we're in the eve of a huge crash in the US uh and by crash I mean the stock market in the US might uh should drop uh some 35% more or less and that could happen very fast as I said in the begin in the previous videos uh eventually Bitcoin is going to be PR Bitcoin and the cryptos will be perceived as a store of value but not in the beginning in the uh whenever it happens and as I said it can happen very quickly uh we've had uh we read all the time like in like recently in 2008 and uh also in 1987 and and yes in 1929 as well when the market felt like 30% in couple of weeks or maybe days so uh at the beginning I think Bitcoin might suffer so I'm basically going to show you guys why I think the crash is evolving and and we're going to take a look in Bitcoin see what are the odds that what I said really happened so going back to or going to the charts uh I want to show you the S&P which is the guy that rules the world as I used to say we bring this chart from 1950 um and this is the Doon bubble and this is the subprime uh crisis and that's the upward Trend we had since 19 uh 2009 and this what and this is what's happening nowadays uh the market made the third already a third upward movement which I think it's wave five of this upward move here Wave 1 two 3 four five and I think we're heading for a double top yes because uh as I mentioned in previous videos uh there is a very strong uh bearish indication here which was the bull trap that the market produced whenever it broke this resistance level sorry and then entered back this former resistance level and then it touched the support line broke the support line and now I think what we had so far was a pullback to this former support line that offered resistance uh thr the uh throw uh throw the the prices down again and so that's uh that's absolutely in the script of a huge fall why do I think it's there's going to be a a a fall fast well because I think uh it's not that I think uh everybody knows that these upward trend and from March 2009 on was inflated by quantitative easings 1 2 3 and by the money that was injected in the market and for that reason the US owes nowadays has a debt of 21.7 trillion and that's just the federal debt so uh whenever thatb that that's a bubble uh so whenever that bursts you know I think the market is going to fall very fast very fast it would be uh we have something to to baser it should happen I think it could happen something like that in which in the subprime in October beginning of October the market felt uh 33 32.6% in in 21 days uh so I think it it maybe doesn't happen that way but I think there's a good possibility that uh we do have a the market going down very fast so this is the first Fibonacci level of the upward movement started here in March 2009 so I've drawn Fibonacci here from here to here and the first uh correction Fibonacci correction level would be down here which would mean a fall of about 34.6% so uh the NASDAQ is doing something very similar it didn't well it double topped but uh even though because I'm I'm showing you here the the NASDAQ nominal while I was showing you the S&P corrected by inflation with the CPI so that's it doesn't change very much the chart if you don't correct it but I think of course if I if I have a uh 68 year year old chart six year year uh years of history in a chart I have to correct by CPI because CPI in that period from 1950 to nowadays evolved 982 almost 1,000% so uh you should take inflation out and of course uh the charts are always are always in in log scale there's no sense in using a chart that long that oscillates minimum with a linear scale right okay showing you the Dow the Dow's uh the Dow has also and that's also corrected by the CPI these charts comes from 1913 when CPI starts to be calculated in the US and uh I've uh channeled this uh Trend this Century Trend and we can see that the market it's up there right in the upper uh trend line of this Channel and apparently it produced a is producing a double top to uh there's one thing I I wanted to show you here in the S&P which is the double top that we also had in in 2007 just before the supr suprime crisis and uh it's very similar to what's happening now cuz the market came to test the support between the two tops and then it went up by 8 88.4% then it came down 5.7% then in it went up like 4.3% and then it came down and then it came down and started to come and well and then it broke the support of the double top which was actually uh a very important support because we had these uh these uh bought here in march7 and7 as well and nowadays it something very similar is happening because the market tested the the support between the two tops and then it went up by 8% and eventually it came down by 3 .4 eventually we're coming down to this level here which would be 4.5% then we could go could go up anything can happen but you know uh the important thing is that we we we're seeing a pullback we clearly seeing just all these upward movement was uh clearly uh apparently just a pull back to the former uh support line which offered resistance and that's another indication that uh a downward trend is starting and uh I think everybody anyone that have stocks will have until the break of this support here because whenever the market breaks this support he's going to put this percent change uh I'm showing you a log scale chart so a a segment in the market in the in this chart would be equivalent to a percent change right which in this case would be approximately 12.2% so whenever the market breaks this uh support here uh it will be confirming the double top it will be confirming the reversal of this trend and it will be confirming that it will probably most probably reach at least the first uh contraction level of Fibonacci which is in it's 1770 177 70 or uh sorry 17 uh yeah 1780 1770 something like that so I just want to show you that uh oil prices are falling very sharply and as I said in the last video why would oil prices come down like that if we were to expect uh an expansion an economic expansion no it's giv us a very clear sign that the world economy is Contracting not expanding that's the very clear sign that oil prices are giving us and I also want to show you um Dow Jones Transportation which also made this uh sort of pull back to the former support line and we're also taking a look at in Japan n which where it happened the same same thing happened there's a support line here and Market broke the support line and this was just a pullback it's probably double topping too so this is going to be the double top of the world stock markets and so this is it so now let's take a look in Bitcoin which is right here this is not Bitcoin this is true USD here's Bitcoin I I still think we're we're heading to $100,000 Wave 1 2 3 4 we're in wave five and wave five so far we've had wave one wave two wave three we're in wave four of wave five I'm expecting us to go uh to enter wave five as soon as Bitcoin gets rid of the of the crash that is going to take in my opinion all the the the the assets to a downtrend uh we have a problem in Bitcoin which is we're very close to the support level and psychological support level of uh 6K or 5800 dollars so if these levels broken uh maybe Bitcoin will fall sharp and eventually it could reach us as low as 4,000 H but that could be very fast you know so that's what I'm expecting to to happen um so this is it uh we're keeping an eye on these cryptos here which are eternity we think this is uh uh will result in in the market breaking we think this is just the correction of the upward Trend so we're keeping an eye on a turn B shares we we were keeping an eye because we thought it would break the support line which it did but we're not we're not uh we're not secure to to issue a a bearish call yet that's for bit shares right maker I I don't think I have the quotes for day maker it's only traded at okx uh we're covering okx but well I think that's that's what's happening but there's uh very little liquidity on maker we're following because we we think that that is a a continuation accumulation uh Ean we keeping an eye because everybody keeps an eye on Ean right but nothing to declare on a we're in this um consolidation year uh keeping an eye we we will have to take an eye in the 60-minute chart and in the 60-minute chart and the hourly chart uh well could be a flag or it could be a reversal nothing to say about it is um dropped uh found its support at 8,000 uh we have something new here in our terminal which is uh in the options we can we can see the price scale in Sates so that's 880,000 Sates right for Eos and it recovered so we given an eye on it cardano Ada broke this resistance line I think it there's a head inverted Head and Shoulders form in here so uh we're keeping an eye and we have to follow that in the hourly chart and whenever we have a sign we'll probably issue a bullish call but not yet that's for Bitcoin which is heading up uh there's a consider consideration to be made which is the difference of Bitcoin between Bitcoin uh coded in Teta and Bitcoin coded in dollars there's been a huge difference so that's why I think one should keep an eye on Teter because uh it's probably going to to uh have some stress again uh what else Bitcoin Cash There's a war going on as everybody knows uh Roger ver against uh Mr uh fake I've heard a nickname for him today uh Greg right um fake Toshi fake Toshi but anyway uh nothing nothing to to say there's an accumulation here and we're keeping an eye on that Neo it's accumulating as well nothing to say about Neo might go also in an accumulation but it broke this potential resistance line so we're keeping an eye on this correction here to see if it breaks we're probably ISU a a a CA a ripple well Ripple apparently is if we come to the weekly chart uh it resembles a a upward flag but could be anything that's the that's that's the TR and finally Verge which we were watching because we thought that was a symmetrical triangle it would come down here but again we didn't we didn't feel comfortable to issue a a short call on Verge so this is it my friends if you like what you've seen please give us a thumbs up consider please subscribing and hit the hit the Bell if you want to be advice whenever we have new videos okay see you next time
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