저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 관세로 인도는 26~27%로 중국 54%보다 낮아 기회라고 봄. 시장은 단기 변동성 크나 인도에 긍정적. 지수는 향후 2년간 신고가 어렵고 횡보 예상, 개별주는 실적에 따라 움직임. 베어마켓이 2025년 6월경 바닥일 수 있다고 추정. 관광·전력/전기화·인프라·전력금융 유망, 금은 과열이라 현 가격에서 매수하지 않겠다고 함.
다듬은 글
It's going on. First let's come to that Kiya ji. How are you seeing what's going on ? And what is Mr. Trump trying to do ? How are you looking at this? No, I think maybe even he himself is not sure what he wants to do, sometimes he jumps, sometimes he pumps and sometimes he jumps. So they have their own separate accounts going on.
But okay. Ultimately what he had been saying was that yes, I will impose it this way. Whatever they have done, they have imposed tariffs and spared India a little. They have imposed a slightly lower tariff. You should be happy for this. But that happiness is not visible in the markets. How will you celebrate this happiness?
Now what should the people who are watching us do? What Should Be the Strategy Right Now? We have already seen some recovery as we are speaking about sir in small cap and mid cap? Is this an opportunity for those who are brave to come into the markets and show faith? Let me tell you one thing I will put it in a different way forget about the market for a while because market keeps on market is very sensitive as we all know that it keeps on fluctuating but ultimately I think that it is good for India.
You know, ultimately we will have to create self-awareness and my point is that we have been imposed with what 26% tariff and I think somewhere it is actually 27% compared to 54% in China, so we got such a huge leverage against Vietnam, against Thailand, against other countries, in this also if this is a blessing in disguise, I feel that if we are not able to take advantage of it and if we are still not able to bring our manufacturing capacity to the world level in this way, then it has become a misfortune for us and I feel that we should look for opportunity in this.
Ok Vijay ji hello Alex here. I am just wondering in a world that seems to be getting more protectionist from India's perspective. Of course there is a large consumption story right here as well. Unfortunately, the initial readings that we are getting from a few companies is not encouraging at least at this stage.
Perhaps it will improve as government spending starts rising in the new financial year etc. So, where would you be deploying? And I know that you are a firm believer in the building material space. You have invested in some of these companies in the past. So how would you be strategizing in the New Year?
See One Thing I'll Tell You. We Have to Find the Stories in Whatever Is Happening. You will not find the environment favourable all the time and everything will not be in your favour. And every time you will make money. We had been making money for the last three to four years. Now this is time to consolidate.
And second coming to the story I feel that still like tourism is a big story which is going to play out for the next 10 years. So and so many there are so many processes to tourism. It could be hotels and could be airlines and could be so many other things too. So I think this is what the government has also understood that India has a huge potential.
You know as I said somewhere now we have 250 million dollars of revenue coming from ah from tourism. It can be scaled up to maybe one trillion dollars in the next to 8 years by the end of this and I think the government has understood so I think tourism should do well and selectively like other infrastructure should also do well and electrical ultimate electrification is the order of the day it is going to stay here weather tariff and non tariff and domestic and export and whatsoever so I think there are few stories which should stay out in this detail Kedia this is this is music to the years right because I am I am I am literally seeing a change of stance from Vijay Kedia the investor the maverick investor.
So you told me about two-three pockets. These are all at least the response that you gave to Alexis question were those little pockets. What is the view in the larger sector? Meaning which will essentially drive the stability of the Nifty. Whether it happened in banking or for example, in IT or in specialty chemicals.
Where these tariffs have an impact. But you also have large investments in the specialty chemical space. Sudarshan Esetra If I am not wrong what do you do with some of the large pockets no I will keep on holding them Neeraj it did not make much difference to me I hold some pharma company also I will keep on holding to it and so I feel the government is also focus on infrastructure as you said the large structure I think infrastructure should do well power structure actually there is so much scope in power whether it is power finance companies which finance power or give loans or whatever or such companies I feel there is a lot of scope in them also.
All the companies related to power are our domestic theory. All this is our domestic story. It does not matter what China or the US is doing inside it. So we have to be a little safe. S U Rightly Put It Out. So maybe index wise I am not very bullish. I don't see that index is going to know we are going to see new highs in the next two years and I don't know about three years.
So I don't I'm not in that camp. So I think the index should consolidate here and individual stocks should do so according to their merit and one more thing I would like to add here Neeraj S I had so many platforms I had said that now a days after 2003 bull markets are longer and bear markets are shorter I think this bull market made a top in September 2024 from that just I don't have any concrete data I don't have but I have seen after 2003 that this bear market which comes, it gets over in one month so according to a bare guess I can tell that I think it may be by June 2025 and may be in the next two to three months time this market will make its bottom that obviously nobody knows but more or less I think so and the index will consolidate and individual stocks will have their own territory and will chart their own story Okay well one one one hope K G you have ghee sugar and everything else that you desire, one small follow up question is that G K people, I mean our first guest was also saying that till now the credit growth etc.
is not picking up but the push that the government has put on the pedal has been done in the last couple of months, RBI is consistently doing steps as well PLI schemes are there, do you think that domestic growth itself will improve with your individual companies, when you talk are people talking of a pickup in growth or is the growth still sluggish.
No, this is actually a different viewpoint from different pockets. But more or less, I feel that in whatever companies I talk to, no one is talking about slow down, Neeraj Bhai, that yes, I am not seeing any growth in the future or there is some confusion in the future. It does n't seem like that. Maybe when he is talking about slow growth.
This may happen, but I feel that if we grow even 6 to 6 percent, one thing is certain that with this 6 percent, we can never become China. If this growth does not reach 8 to 10% in 25-50 years, but even if we grow 6 to 6%, there will be many industries which will grow 15 to 20 percent, there will be many which will grow 0 percent, like those consumer goods like LCPG etc., in which, as you were telling, whatever is there of Dabur etc., it is possible that they will not grow, so on an average, there will be growth of 6.5 percent, in that there are many industries which will grow faster than the average growth rate.
Yes, we were talking about whether your tariff plan is ready or not, no, no, it is not ready yet, the idea is right now, yes, you see, now what should I praise about them, I gave you an idea, this is a good idea, oh, you gave a good idea, friend. How should I praise the right person who put pressure on me and sank the market and harassed me, what a thing, what a thing, what was told, what was shown, see this, our collaboration happened on the spot, this is a collaboration, a jugal was formed, but no no, coming back to the point K ji, what you are saying that there are pockets of opportunity, the kind of business updates we are seeing, what we will see in the quarter for how has this become, if we are looking inwards, the word this has become, the world is looking inwards, so we also have to see ours, from our point of view, what is your view on the strength of corporate India?
Look, I want to tell you one thing. This role of 6% that is going on, I personally have no existence. I have no existence. I am not an economist. I am a simple small investor. But I am not very happy with it. The way the world is growing and the way my attention repeatedly goes to China, and the way we repeatedly compare ourselves with China, then I feel that this growth rate of 6.5% which India has is not satisfactory.
We will have to bring it to a growth rate of 810% and I said about this country that in this growth the index should show some new value again in two-three years. I don't think the index shows anything new. You will get opportunities in some pockets. But for that you will have to be very alert. You have to be very careful.
You have to study really very hard as to where should I invest money and where should I not invest money. Because the time to earn easy money in the market is over once and for all. Now the time that is coming ahead is a time of hard work and effort and that money will not come as quickly as it came earlier.
This is what I believe. So the growth that India is seeing is fine. 6.5% growth is fine. But we are not the fastest growing economy. What is the fastest growing economy? Despite being the fastest growing economy, you will add $250 million. I always say that even if China adds 5%, it will keep adding.
He is not faster than us. Brother, tell him Provist, even then he will add 1 trillion dollars. So I want India's development to be such that we achieve 8-10% and that will happen through animal instinct. He still does not understand how this will happen next? How will the government do it? How will the private sector contribute to this?
So this is something to understand. That is why I am saying that you will get good money only if you invest in very selective pockets. Kedia ji just a follow up to that and I understand it that we are trying to understand at this point that animal spirits are what they are heading towards. Right? Ah the base assumption at this case at this stage is that the government will start spending more.
It has already started December-January of the turn of the year. The assumption was that they had already started spending much more. And the assumption that they will continue to do so. So that support will be there. In your estimation, the consumption that was expected to come through and we all spoke after the budget.
The Tax Breaks That Will Start in the Month of April. In your opinion, are there negative factors that are curtailing that. That will prevent that from having a significant effect and is it too early to say? Which effect? Sorry please. The consumption story The consumption benefit from the tax cards are there other factors that are at play to say that yes this is positive but its impact is negative.
Therefore, this entire flow is not happening through. Look, I feel it will take time. So you should understand that our last year's budget of 11 lakh crores, as you said, the government spending started from December, it may take some time for the research to come out, last year also if I am right I think there was a short fall of 2-3 lakh crores and something the government could not spend, you know till December, after that they did this year's, then again their spending of 11 lakh crores, then their budget of investment came, I feel that this should happen with the private sector, there should be government spending as well and the private sector should also participate in it, which we hear again and again that something is not happening, so somewhere the private sector must be understanding something that why it is not willing to invest.
Whether they are not making profits due to importing cheaper products from China or they are not able to see any demand being created in future or they are not able to understand it. So these are a lot of ebbs and butts. It is possible that after the tariff that has been imposed today, some clarity may come in some matters, so I think it may take another three to six months for this to become clear, till then I do not have any opinion about it, okay Mr.
K, maybe you have an answer to this right now or not, I don't know but I would love to talk to you may be again sometime in the next two to three days, the two couple of sectors which are a bit confusing, it is textiles, it is chemicals. For example, large India presence duty is imposed but neighboring countries which are higher competition have a much higher duty right Vietnam, Cambodia Northwards of 40%, China may be 34 plus 20 so may be 54%.
So on a relative basis Indian firms have a lower duty than those. Does that mean there was not much impact on Indian textile companies or Indian chemical companies. Because of the competitive intensity, they might be able to match better. So this is what I said in the beginning of this interview Neeraj this could be placing in these guys.
This Is What You Should Find You Know Diamond in the Cold Mind. This is what happens. No, how big will it be for us that you are giving 27% and he is giving 54% or 52%, whatever you are giving to him. What a huge opportunity this is for you. So, but what about this, saying this I said that now this private sector will have to come forward and find a way as to how we can take advantage of this opportunity or how we can take advantage of this adversity, so in my opinion this is a gift in their hands in the pattern of comparison because see the world runs on comparison only, what are you making, what are you not making, if you understand that we are not the lowest spot producer in many things, we have completely ruined the textile market, you see from where did Vietnam and Bangladesh come in within five years ?
Before this our textile business was running. We ruined it. We wasted people for whatever reason. Whether it was not expanded or modernized or whatever was not done. Our name did not appear on any world scale. Right now I feel this is a gift for us. If we can take advantage of this then it is a very good thing and we should take advantage of it.
I feel like this. Okay Vijay ji I know that we normally actually almost always speak to you about equity but we are speaking at a time when gold is at $3100 plus dollars per troy ounce. And I think if anybody has made money over the course of the last decade, it is the central bank certainly and it is the Indian household which continues to buy gold.
What is your opinion? In this current uncertain time, should investors actively consider buying gold? I may be wrong because I do n't know, but I think that gold has also become euphoric like the stock market was euphoric in the last two three years. Same thing has happened in gold also. I think somewhere we are, we have got it some how much, 40%, 45%, you know, the price of gold has increased within two years, in these 24 and 25, if we add them, then I think gold has also become very euphoric or like earlier there was equity market, there was real estate market or whatever it is, gold is also I think has become euphoric for it.
So I will not buy gold at this price. OK don't buy gold at this price but hang on to your gold. I assume I think sing the song. Yes, what are you saying? You sing a song. You will speak. Sing a song. Well, there was no plan but if you feel like it then you will not refuse. No no no, speak further. Speak further.
Did n't come forward was good to say. Thank you so much for speaking with us but Kiya ji you are always welcome for song for poetry and for views on NDT profit there is no doubt no no no see in the last song I said this is the bottom where is this bottom where is it no no no no no this is an illusion and this illusion does not have any idea no ... Thank you so much for speaking with us always.
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