저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
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자막 기준 인도 투자자 Vijay Kedia의 성장 스토리 인터뷰. 콜카타 증권거래소 출신 집안에서 선물옵션 투기로 시작해 10년간 고생했고, 이후 장기투자로 전환했다고 회고. 투기는 확률상 대부분 손실이라며 부정적 입장을 강조. 자금 여력이 적은 신규 투자자는 소액 단타보다 장기 투자와 복리 효과에 집중하라고 조언. 구체적 종목 가격 전망이나 수치 근거는 없음.
다듬은 글
So first of all, it is a matter of happiness for me that someone from Kolkata is interviewing me because as they say, motherland is India, but for me motherland has become the real motherland because this is where I was born, of course, and you should understand that my life started from Kolkata Exchange, so that is also in my heart today.
Well, the same building, the same hall etc., all right in front of my eyes and also the old people whom I know. Yes, so what was your question, what started it ? How did you start? No, this is the beginning, I have said this at many places. Still I will repeat it again. It all started like this, we were in Kolkata Exchange and my grandfather was a broker.
He was a stock broker in Kolkata. My father died early when I was 14 and he was 40 years old. So grandfather was a broker. But at that time I understood that my life has changed a bit and life is going to be fun because there is fun in struggle also and at that time I was not aware of the adversities of struggle which are called problems, at that time at that age I used to feel that this is also a way of living, but luckily like in a joint family, the situation was a bit bad and in the sense like in a joint family, in many places there is a very good atmosphere in a joint family.
It is not good in many places. So that was a good thing. It was not a good environment for me. So there I understood one thing that I have to collect some means of earning money as soon as possible. Otherwise, my family might not be able to survive. And my mother and I were four brothers and sisters.
One sister was married. So from there I understood that yes, baby will have to do some work. So I remember when we used to say that it is 12 days for father, then at that time I sat with my grandfather, I used to take his laser ledger, at that time everything was in my hand and I sat there with the intention of learning something or the other, yes yes and but it was in my mind that as I used to hear that yes, there was betting going on in Kolkata, yes we all know and I was into betting in the sense, whatever I understand as trading, which is called future option today, whatever ups and downs there were in it, yes, it was in my mind to do this big work, so I used to sit with my grandfather and do mock trading with him.
Yes, yes, that was the interest from there. So whatever I did in mock trading, I did not start with Rs 100, 200 or 500. In that I used to do mock trading of quantities like 10000, 500, 1 lakh, 5 lakh etc. So my grandfather would be happy and would say that he is crazy. But maybe they might also like it.
So anyway it started from there, then as he grew up he must have been around 19 years old. He was 18 or 19. Then I applied for Assistant Member in the exchange, which we call Sub Broker in today's language, then I applied for it in the exchange, I was about 21 years old, Vardhan ji was the President at that time, he showed some sympathy towards me and allowed me a little early that yes I can come, so that journey was that, there was that compulsion and also interest that yes brother I want to break something, so that interest was there, so you understand that the journey started from there, but then the trading was prevalent there, so I kept doing trading etc., in the beginning I earned money as per my status, whatever was the base there, it was reality, there was not Rs.
50000 lakh there, there it was only 100, 200, 50, 500, etc. I earned money in the beginning but then my family members did not want me to do any speculation, they were poor brokers, good people, they did not want me to do any speculation, so we separated from the family, then we started our speculation there, and that started in that I got success in what is called beginner's luck, yes, and later the band started playing inside me, which always happens like this.
The same thing happens with people even today. When people welcome the market, whoever comes to the market, the market welcomes everyone. He will welcome everyone with love and then bid them farewell in the same manner. Then he also bids farewell. When a man starts to think that he is invincible. Now no one can defeat him.
It also came to my mind that it was in my hands. Where it is understood that the market has come into your hands. The same market slaps you and straightens you out. So from there, the ups and downs continued like this. So in that Bombay, I understood that my life is nothing even in this betting. There is no problem.
And what happens is that if you consider speculation and future options as a business and treat it as if I have to earn daily. For example, either I am not allowed to take home a loss making deal or I am allowed to lose it for the same amount. It means that he has his own theory, his own principle of speculation, future option trading, if someone remains completely focused on it and follows it then he can be successful.
You think, I am doing this and that and I will earn money by trading in the stock market, then I can write on paper that 100% you are going to be ruined here. We ultimately hope that you should not make it completely one that this is all I have, only Girdhar Gopal, no one else. Unless you make it such that I am going to do only this work, you will not get success.
By saying this in betting, the success rate is 1%. 99% of the people lose money and the money lost by that 99% of the people is earned by that 1% of the people. By saying this, they earn the most money in betting or trading because that kitty of Rs 99 goes to their house completely. Yes, and the rest goes to SEBI, goes to the exchange, goes to the broker.
This is who I am, after working hard for 10 years I realized that I do n't have a future here and Bombay was always on my mind. Yes, Bombay has glamour, Bombay takes and Bombay sells. Because of that there was chaos in the stock market. From there we decided to go to Bombay. Then I came to Bombay. amazing.
So when you went to Bombay, you focused on investing from the very first step. No, what happened? When I explained to myself that after doing all this for 10 years, I understood that I am not going to achieve anything in life through this. Yes, the reason for this was that one of the biggest reasons in betting, as I told you, is that if you consider it as a business, then it is fine.
Yes, I did not consider it a business. Why me, the habit of mine in childhood, the trailer of mock trading, 100, 200, 500, 10000, 500, 1 lakh, 5 lakh, which I used to do with my grandfather, that was my life, that was the trailer of my life. Actually, saying this, it is written in many places in our scriptures that the habit that you have in your childhood is a part of you, that is what you are going to do in the future.
Right, so perhaps my part was that I wanted to do something big, do big work, do volume work, do some big volume work. Right, I did not get interest in 100, 200, 500, when I had to earn lakh, 2 lakh, 5 lakh or whatever you know in the world, I wanted to be like that. So what I used to do was, after the money that I used to earn in 200, 500, I did the second trading, then money came in it, then money came in the third, later I had to do 1000, 5000 and I got the money of Rs.
5000, then the third time I had to increase it to Rs. 15000 because I had to ultimately reach that big volume, so it is simple like the rule of casino that you increase your stake and you are successful 98 times and then you increase your stake and in 99 and 100 second time you increase your stake five times, then you will be out in one go.
Yes, it was the same thing that as long as you are taking one run and considering it as business, like Rahul Dravid used to play, I am considering it as business of taking each run. I had to hit fours and sixes, I had to do the maximum number of runs that could be scored on each ball. So this ball also faced that failure in his life.
That was the biggest reason. Yes, this was the reason, then after 10 years I realized that this was not a job worth doing. Then I changed my mind a little towards investment. Then I thought why don't we look at investment a little and see how to work in investment and at that time there were very few people in Kolkata Action who talked about investment.
99% used to talk about future options. That means there were talks about trading. So, from there my mind changed and maybe because I used to hear from Bombay that this share has increased, that share has increased, this has happened, that has happened, so from there my attention changed and then there was an opportunity that whatever small amount of Rs.
30, 35,000 that was left, whatever or whatever I do n't remember, then I started investing it and I got the idea that I did not have money, I did not have a base, so whatever I got, ₹10, 20, 25, I should invest it, from here that base was formed, then I went to Bombay and then it developed there. Yes yes sir, as you can see in the number of new people who have come into the system, so many new people have come, obviously they do not have that much capital.
The new investors who have come, especially the millennials. The average capital is Rs 500-1 lakh. Opening an account with a broker and working. So they think that even if I start investing with Rs 500 or Rs 1 lakh, how much money will I have and it will take a lot of time to grow. Because the impact of the power of compounding is actually greater at the tail end.
When your size becomes one. So start with trading, do some daily trading, accumulate money and then invest. This has become a perception among the people. So, you started with trading but you did not make money from it. You made money through investments. So which path is correct? New people. Look, your question is very good because many people ask me this and many people also get angry with me on this because right now when I say that you should not do trading then people say that you earned money from that only, I do not have an answer for that, that I should sit on Twitter and answer all of them that brother, why am I refusing from trading, there should be a reason behind it, first understand this, understand that the stock market is such a place where you can earn Rs 500, 50 crores, first you tell me whether you believe this or not, when the money increases 100 times or 1000 times here, it does not happen, of course it takes time, slowly everything happens, like a gardener, when the season comes, the fruits come overnight, so you cannot produce anything here right now, and you yourself said compounding, so if you know the principle of compounding, then you just have to hit good shots, you have to leave the bad balls and hit fours and sixes on the good balls.
There is this simple rule that even if you have ₹00 lakh, the amount is not less. First of all, there is no guarantee that you will make ₹150 lakh by trading. Yes, in fact, in trading, it is a different matter that your ₹1 lakh can be wiped out in 2 minutes. Suppose in a business, one day the market crashes and you come to know that your ₹1 lakh is lost in one or three tradings, then first of all there is no security about that ₹1 lakh, today you are thinking that hey I have only ₹1 lakh, it is going to take me a lot of time.
I will trade with this quote. Who gave you assurance? Who guarantees that your ₹1 lakh will be saved? The day your ₹1 lakh is wiped out, you will reach zero. Then you will not even be eligible for trading. We think this is a misconception of the people. Even now I may not be able to explain to him in words what I want to say.
I do n't know if it is clear or not. But this is a big myth among people that I should first earn money by trading. First let me tell you my point brother. I earned money by trading and for 10 years I did not have money to eat. I have been trading for 10 years and I have already said this at many places, hence I am repeating it but the question is relevant.
I did not have money to buy a milk packet worth ₹14 for my son. Would you like to go to that university ? Can you see that adversity? There were five people behind me, there was no one in front or behind me. So I saw that thing. Can you see that thing? If you can see that adversity. You can live like this for 10 years without knowing what you will eat the night before and what you will not eat the next morning.
If you have the capability and the mindset to see it, then you should jump in. I mean this. But if that is not your mind set because not every person has a mind set. If a Shahrukh Khan comes from a Delhi play and sleeps on a platform in Bombay, then understand that he becomes a showman. If someone becomes the biggest man in India, then behind him there are millions of stories of people who could not succeed.
He must have had the courage to use that formula. The meaning is just to speak. If I am clear what I want to say. If you have something to see, something to bear, if you have the capacity to face it, then it is fine, then it is a different matter, but what will you do with your backing? There came a time for me when I had to sell my mother's jewellery because I do n't have money and my family members are saying sell your mother's jewellery because you lost money in trading, God saved me, understand that my money was recovered, if my money had not been recovered then today I would not have been sitting here and giving interviews, I too would have been sitting inside the Lions Range and standing outside and doing the same thing of Rs.
100, 200, 500, you understand, there are many such stories, it is your luck that God supports you, it is your luck, you have nothing else to lose, in the situation I was in, I had nothing to lose, so as they say, what can he do to me, what can anyone do to me, I was in such a situation, so my first answer to this saying is that it is not necessary that what happened to me May God bless everyone and may we be a thousand times better, but it is not in our hands to whom.
So first of all, I advocate this saying that you should not go into that adversity. What I refuse to do is because I have seen that pen in my life. And I haven't seen it once. I have seen it a thousand times. I watched it 10,000 times. I have seen it every night. So then I learnt that brother, I have to bear the loss.
These are the standards to keep in trading. These are parameters to keep. This has to be done, not this. He brought the dos and don'ts from there. I didn't want anyone to tell me this, no one explained it to me, so I don't want people to go this way because it's wasting your time. Understand that I started in 1989 and I kept doing this for 30-35 years in my life, and if you are starting this at 30, 35, why else would you start this, but if it takes you 10 years, 20 years, and till then your courage should remain alive.
Like we say in Bang, what does Korbo Morbo say, 'I will do it and I will die'. You should have that courage, if you have it, then it's fine. So, this thing is like a war, if you are not difficult and you jump into the field, and if you are clean the first time, then the next time you are not ready to fight.
Trading is such a thing, by saying this again and again they say, so save your capital, here you hear such things, such things here, we are seeing that in every many There are such shares which have increased 500 times or 1000 times in 20 years through compounding. Such shares come to us, instead of that you are not learning anything in trading, instead of that if you are investing your time in productivity like how to identify a multibagger or 100 bagger, if you put your mind to it and take even one shot, right an idea can change your life, an idea can make your life.
You are right sir, I met you many years ago, there was an Inc conference in Bombay. I think it has been 10 years since that incident. So when I met you, we were introducing ourselves to each other and I asked you, Sir, what do you do? So you said that I do full time investing. So I thought this full time investing means what does a person do all day?
Because I could not understand full time investing, what would a full time person do all day in investing? So what do you do all day long, sir ? Let's do investing. Let us see the prices throughout the day. Yes, I do look at the sentiments but I look at the sentiments for the free time I have, as you asked, what do you do throughout the day ?
Yes, I need something to do. So by saying this I look at the sentiment because there should be some excitement in your life, if my life becomes dull and I think that or I have invested this, whereas you know that I invest for infinity. I do n't have any time period in my mind that I will sell it after 2 years or I will sell it at five times or I will sell it at 20 times or I will sell it if I incur a loss of 50 rupees.
That also does not remain in my mind nor is there any time frame. So I did it and left that to Let's Grow with the Stock. So I don't have any time after that. So I see the price of this ball. But now, suppose if I am sitting here or I go out somewhere or I go anywhere for five days, suppose I go to Rishikesh, I like going there, for example, so I go and I do not feel like going there, so I do not have any desire to see it, and if I do not have it, then I will see what else I do, so personally I feel that look, I am not a qualified person, you know it very well, it is a common thing, and whatever I say on this subject may sound strange to you, but this is what I am, so what do I do?
I feel like my job is to think. Yes. My job is to think. Thinking is my passion and my profession. That is not passion. My main professional is thinking. I feel that as an investor my job is to just think. And what is happening in the world ? He watched silently. Regardless of what happened in Australia?
Or what happened to Covid? What happened in Europe? What happened in London? What happened in India? What happened in which sector ? What happened in steel? What happened in pharma? Keep track of all of them as much as possible and connect all those dots in your investments. So this is my only job. It seems to me that I just think that this is what happened here.
Now what difference will that make to my share ? Okay, and which of my shares will be affected? My job is to sit idle and connect those dots. So I keep collecting empty data. There are one or two people in my team, most of them are nothing and some of them are not very qualified, but their job is to collect data and give it to me or provide me with the source of news, that is my profession, not passion, my passion is that I get to know the news, what is happening where, although I am not fully equipped in that matter, but still it is okay, so I just keep thinking whether this can happen with this, whether that can happen with that, and in between, I take out that time and keep doing meditation.
So this happened these days, in these years, so I take out some time and step aside and after stepping aside, I am in a way that I am not thinking about anything. I try to say that I am thinking nothing, I am trying like this, but I am not able to do it. This is a great penance. But I am trying to sit and concentrate on myself and myself, that I am not thinking about anything right now. So this is my daily routine.
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