저자: Zachary Laid · 외국인
다듬은 글
I think the public could do extremely well in the stock market on their own I think the fact that institutions dominate the market today is a positive for small investors these institutions push stocks unusual lows they push them unusual highs for someone they can sit back and have their own opinion and know something about the industry this is a positive it's not an England so that's what I want to talk about and the single single most important thing to me in the stock market for anyone is to know what you own I'm amazed how many people own stocks they would not be able to tell you why they own it they couldn't say in a minute or less why they don't actually you really press them down they'd say the reason I own this is the suckers going up and that's the only reason that's the only reason they own it and if you can't explain upstairs you can't explain to a 10 year old in two minutes or less why you own a stock you should know in it and that's true I think about 80% of people that own stocks and this is the kind of stock people like to own this is the kind of company people adore owning is a relatively simple company they make a very narrow easy to understand product they make a 1 megabit SRAM CMOS bipolar risk floating point data i/o array processor with an optimizing compiler a 16 dual port memory a double diffused metal-oxide-semiconductor monolithic logic chip with a plasma matrix vacuum fluorescent display it has a 16-bit dual memory it as a UNIX operating system for whetstone mega flop ollie silicon a minute er a high bandwidth that's very important 6 gigahertz double metallization communication protocol an asynchronous backward compatibility peripheral bus architecture for wave in to leave memory a token ring a change backplane and it does in 15 nanoseconds in capability now if you want a piece a crap like that you will never make money never zombie will come along with more wet stones or less wet stones or big a mega flop or a small Omega flop you won't have the foggiest idea what's happened and people buy this junk all the time I made money and Dunkin Donuts I can understand it I when there was recessions I don't have to worry about what was happening I could go there and people still there I didn't have to worry about low price Korean imports I mean I just stand out you know I can understand it and you laughs I made ten or fifteen times my money in Dunkin Donuts those are the kind of stocks I can understand if you don't understand it doesn't work this is the single biggest principle and it bothers me that people are very careful the money the public when they buy a refrigerator they get a Consumer Reports they buy a microwave oven they do that they ask people what's the best kind of radar range or they are what kind of car to buy they do research on apartments when they go to when they go on a trip to Wyoming you get the mobile Travel Guide or California when they go to Europe they get the Michelin Travel Guide people hear a tip on a bus on some stock and they'll put half their life savings in it before sunset and they wonder why they lose money in the stock market and when they lose money they blame it on the institutions and program training that is garbage they didn't do any research they father who's a job they didn't look at the balance sheet and that's what you get for it and that's what we were being driven to and it's self fulfilling the public does terrible investing and they say they don't have a chance it's because that's the way they were that's the way they're acting I'm trying to convince people there is a method there are reasons for stocks that go up coca-cola this is very magic it's a very magic number easy remember coca-cola is earning 30 times per share what they did 32 years ago the stock has gone up 30 fold Bethlehem Steel is earning less they did 30 years ago the stock is half its price of 30 years ago stocks are not lottery tickets it's a company behind every stock the company does well the stock as well it's not that complicated people get too carried away and first of all they try and predict the stock market that is a total waste of time no one to predict the stock market they try to predict the interest rates I mean this is it if any would predict the interest rates right three times in a row that'd be a billionaire concern there's not that many millionaires on the planet it's very you know I took logic situs syllogism in the study these when I was at Boston College they can't be that many people interest rate specific lots of billionaires and no one can predict the economy I had a lot of people this rumor around in 1981 and 82 when we had a 20% prime rate with double-digit inflation double-digit unemployment I don't remember anybody telling me in 1981 about it I didn't read I studied all this up I remember anybody tell me the worst recession since the depression so what I'm trying to tell you it'd be very useful to know what the Sartre mare is gonna do it'd be terrific to know that the Dow Jones average a year for now would be X then we're gonna have a full-scale recession or interest rates going to be 12% that's useful stuff you never know it though you just don't get to learn it so I've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year in economics you've wasted 12 minutes and I I really believe that now I have to be I be fair I'm talking about economics in the broad scale predicting the downturn for next year or the upturn or m1 and m2 3 B and all these all these M's the I'm talking about economics to me is when you talk about scrap prices when I own auto stocks I want to know what's happening use car prices when use car prices going up it's a very good indicator when I want hotel stock someone I wrote the hotel aqua sees chemical stock someone know what to have the price of ethylene these are facts the lumen inventories go down five straight months that's relevant I can deal with that home affordability I want to know about I own an email in the housing stock these are facts you can direct an arc fax and his economic predictions and economic predictions are a total waste and interest rates Alan Greenspan's a very honest guy he would tell you that he can't predict interest rates he could take what short rates gonna do the next six months try and stick him on what the long-term rate will be three years from now they'll say I don't have any idea so how are you the investor supposed to take interest rates if they had a Federal Reserve can't do it so I think that's what you should study history and history is the important thing you learn from what you learn from history as the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years a century this is easy to do the markets had 50 declines of 10% or more so 50 declines in 93 years but once every two years the market Falls and percent we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly we call it a correction and so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years of market Falls 10% while those 50 declines 15 have been 25% or more that's known as a bear market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the markets gonna have a 25% decline that's all you need to know you need to know the markets gonna go down sometime if you're not ready for that you should known stocks and it's good when it happens did you like a stock at 14 it goes to 6 that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet they're doing fine and you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific 6 to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these declines they're going to happen no one knows and they're gonna happen it would be very people tell you about it have the fact that they predicted it but they predicted it 53 times and so you can take advantage of the volatility market if you understand what your own so I think that's the key to element another key element is that you have plenty of time people are an unbelievable rush to buy a stock I'll give an example of a well known company Walmart went public in October of 1970 1971 public already had a great record and at 15 years performance brake balance sheet you could have waited 10 years saying you're very conservative Esther you not sure this Walmart can make it you want to check your you see them operate in small towns you're afraid they only make it in seven or eight states you want to wait till they go to more states you keep waiting you can about Walmart 10 years after one public I made 35 times your money you bought it when they went public you would have made 500 money but you can wait 10 years after a while Michael in public and made 30 over 30 times your money you can wait three years after Microsoft went public made ten times your money if you knew something about software I know nothing less to offer if you know cellular software you would said these guys have it I don't care who's gonna win Compaq IBM I know who's gonna win Japanese computers I know Microsoft ms-dos is the right thing you could buy microsoft again I'm repeating myself stocks are not a lottery ticket there's a company behind every stock and you can just watch it you have plenty of time people are an amazing rush to purchase the security they're out of breath when they call up you don't need to do this it's uh the you need an edge to make money to people have incredible edges and they throw them away I'll give you a quick example of SmithKline this is a stock that had tagamet you didn't have to buy SmithKline when tagged mint was doing critical trials you don't have to buy SmithKline went ahmed was talked about in the New England Journal of Medicine or the British version Lancet you could have bought Smith wine when tagamet first came out a year after came out let's say your spouse your mother your father you were a nurse or druggist you're writing all these prescriptions tagamet was doing an amazing job of curing ulcers and there's a wonderful pill for the company peace of you to stop taking it the altar came back it wasn't a crummy product of it he took it for a botkin it went away but it was a great product for the company but you could have bought it two years after the product was on the market and made five or six times your money I mean all the druggist all the nurses all the people millions of people saw this product and they're out buying oil companies you know we're drilling it it happens and then three years later before you say to Glaxo even a bigger cup is a huge company British company broad zantac which was a better at that time an improved product and you could have seen that take market share do well get by blacks on triple your money so you only need a few stocks in your lifetime they're in your industry
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