How do you actually get a safe 8% return? (billionaire Ray Dalio strategy)

요약 보기

장기 8% 수익을 얻는 쉬운 방법으로 S&P500 지수 ETF 투자를 권하고, 변동성을 줄이는 레이 달리오의 올웨더 포트폴리오를 소개한다. S&P500은 미국 500대 기업 지수이며, 장기(10년 이상) 평균 약 8% 상승했다고 설명한다. 단기 1~5년 투자에는 적합하지 않다고 강조한다. 대표 추종 ETF로 SPY, VOO(VO 표기)를 제시하며 증권사에서 티커 검색으로 매수할 수 있다고 안내한다. 2018년 약 20% 상승, 2019년 상반기 등락 후 횡보를 언급한다. 지수는 1년에 50% 하락할 수 있으며 2008년 같은 급락을 견뎌야 한다고 경고한다. 적립식 매수(달러 비용 평균법)로 하락기에도 투자를 유지하면 장기 수익을 얻을 수 있다고 주장한다. 올웨더 포트폴리오 구성: 장기채 40%(VGLT), 주식 30%(VTI 또는 VT), 중기채 15%(VGIT), 금 7.5%(IAU), 원자재 7.5%(GSG 등). 2008년 시장 37% 하락 때 이 포트폴리오는 약 3.25% 상승했다고 주장하며 과거 백테스트를 근거로 든다. 수익률은 8%보다 낮은 6.5~7% 정도일 것이라고 본인이 언급하며, 변동성이 낮은 대신 수익률은 다소 낮아진다고 설명한다. 결론적으로 장기 분산투자와 인내를 강조하며 구독과 좋아요를 요청한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I received a comment that said, " How do you actually get an 8% return?" Because you watch all these videos about finance and investing. Yes, you should, you know, you shouldn't just keep your money under the mattress. You need to beat inflation. Inflation is at 3%. You need to invest it to get an 8% return.

02. Just invest it in the stock market. Invest it in real estate. But how exactly do you get an 8% return? I'm going to show you a very quick and easy way to do it. Very good. There is this thing called the S&P 500. Surprisingly, many people don't know what it is. If you saw one of my videos, what is the S&P 500?

03. I'm not entirely sure, but it seems like some kind of organization. Uh, in the public interview videos , I asked a couple of people, "What is the S&P 500?" Some said something like, "It's an organization or random things." No, they are the best performing ones. I don't need to write this. In the US , the 500 best companies.

04. Why do you want to invest in these? Because, on average, this has risen by 8% in the long term. Not as a guaranteed 8% each year, but in the long term. So your investment horizon should be a decade or more. If you're looking to invest in the short term (1 to 5 years), this isn't for you. There is no guaranteed 8% return in the short term.

05. This is based more on historical data throughout the history of the market. So when people say "invest your money to get an 8% return," they're talking about investing in the S&P 500. And I'm going to give you the exact tickers that track this. OK? For example, uh these are probably the ring lights right here.

06. Let me delete this and give you the exact tickers . A ticker is what you use to buy a stock. Like the Coca-Cola ticker is KO. So you go to any brokerage platform like Robinhood, Scott Trade, whichever one you use, type in KO and buy a share of Coca-Cola. So here's a ticker symbol for the S&P 500. Okay , there's one called SPY.

07. There is one called VOO. Okay, these are just two examples. This one is from Vanguard. There are many others. You can simply Google " S&P 500 index fund ticker symbols" and you'll find them. But right here, these are ETFs, okay? SPY, VO. If you simply invest in them over the next 10 years or more, you should average that 8% return.

08. Is it exciting? Is it fun? Is it like Bitcoin? Is it crazy? No, it isn't . It's super boring. You know, you could put your money here and the following year it might go down, thinking, "Oh, darn, I 'm down 10%." TRUE? During these last two years, I think in 2018 we saw it rise by about 20% or so. Very good.

09. 2019, so far, has been a very volatile year. It has had its ups and downs and has remained sideways. We don't know where it's going. But we know that in the long run you can expect that. In the short term, you can't know what to expect. If there were a guaranteed way to earn 8% every year, I'm sure everyone would be investing in it.

10. But you already know it does n't exist. But there's definitely something you can do if you're one of those who doesn't want to see this, which is a definite possibility. You have to accept the fact that you could see this for a year. We are now in a decline, down 50%. OK? People saw this in 2008. You have to be ready for that.

11. But if you maintain your investment, invest more, average your cost in dollars, which means buying more shares during this period, you will come out ahead and get your 8%. But I want to show you a wallet you can use where you'll never have to see this. You won't earn 8% in the long run. You'll probably earn something like 6.5 % or 7%, you won't earn the full 8%.

12. You'll earn a little less, but you'll never see these drops. Or let me correct that. Historically, it has never seen a fall like this. I did the backtesting of this portfolio myself. It belongs to billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio. I just want to outline it for you here quickly. I already made a video about what to do during a market crash, but I 'll explain it right here.

13. So, I'll break it down for you here very quickly. Okay, 40% of this portfolio will be in long-term bonds. Long-term bonds. Okay, you can go to your brokerage; I'll give you the exact tickers for these. So, for long-term bonds, here's a ticker symbol you can look for. Okay, 40% is right here. Now, we have 30 %.

14. I probably should have written it smaller. So, let me make this a little more organized for you. 40% in long-term bonds, right? VGLT. Oh. VGLT stock symbol. That's 40% of the portfolio. Long-term bonds. 30% in shares. Quotation symbol V. Agreed? Or you could use VTI, the total stock market, if you don't just want US.

15. Then we have medium-term bonds. Medium-term bonds, right? This is VGIT. Then we have 7.12% in gold and raw materials. Very good. The gold will be IAU. The raw materials will be GS. So here are the symbols. Here are the exact assignments. And ? 40, 30, 70, 15, 85, 85, 15, 9 , 100, boom! Very good. 100%.

16. This is the complete assignment. It's called the "all-terrain" portfolio. Ray Dalio uses it and it's to, uh, resist. Okay, I have a whole video about this. I'm not going to explain it again, but I'll put a video card here or maybe in the description below explaining exactly what this does for you. But essentially, when the market lost 50% in 2008, this only lost; I think it went up 2%.

17. During the 2008 crisis when the market fell by 37%, Ray Dalio's "All Weather" portfolio rose by 3.25%. Now, I did a retrospective test from...Watch that video. I explain exactly how it works and I actually do the test for you. But this is a good allowance for those with weak stomachs. So that's it. I hope you enjoyed this video.

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