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hey everyone coach investor back to another video for today so let's talk about the hottest stock in the market right now rivien no as you might know i'm a tesla shareholder yes i'm wearing this shirt specifically for this video now as a tesla shareholder i do know that talking about valuations is maybe a bit funny to some of you but i just want to say that i do not dislike review the company i do not dislike lucid the company i actually like their cars very very much i think the design is very nice and i think both of them are going to be a major success in the very long term with that said i do think that the stock right now does not make sense at all and if you're michael berry and you stumbled on this video maybe take a shot at shorting reviewing that might make up for the losses that you endured when you went short tesla when you bought puts on tesla alright so at the time of making this video reven is worth around 130 billion dollars yes you heard it right 130 billion dollars if i was an insider right now i would have loved it if the lock lock-up period expires today so i can sell everything and takes lots of profits now for those that skipped maybe the start again i do not dislike the company i like the product i like the brand i think they're going to be a huge success in the future right now this valuation does not make sense 130 billion dollars when you had what close to zero sales makes no sense yes you might say oh everybody is looking for the next tesla because they might have missed it so that's why you saw neo go up extremely fast that's why you saw lucid earlier going up extremely high then going down and now with ribbon worth 130 billion dollars you see lucid going up as well because everybody's chasing that next tesla since most of them probably missed out on the opportunity because well they were bashing and bashing on elon musk and tesla not being profitable valuations were too high blah blah blah and now they're clearly proven wrong so they're trying their luck with other companies but it doesn't work like that eventually valuations will catch up and the stock will correct now riven does have a joker card here and that joker is called amazon not only is amazon their biggest customer with 100 000 edvs orders but it's also their largest investor with around 20 stake in the company now you might start to ask yourself some question that order of one hundred thousand edvs is worth around seven billion dollars the stake that amazon has in riven right now is worth between 20 to 25 billion dollars so if amazon were to sell their stake in rivion they would still profit around 18 billion or so and still get those 100 000 edvs by 2025.
now you might know where i'm going with this if hypothetically amazon were to sell their 20 stake in rivion and this gets out obviously the stock will get hammered no the stock gets hammered but amazon will still get their edvs by 2025. now if the stock is down let's say 70 percent or so amazon might say oh maybe now is a good time to buy some shares or even again so they load up the truck again no pun intended and then maybe they announced that they're going to order even more edvs what will happen next is obviously the stock goes up on the news and then it's just rinse repeat so some questions might be asked here obviously amazon is a joker card for rivian and they do say so in their s1 as well we believe our partnership with amazon and its initial order of 100 000 edvs subject to modification as described below under certain relationship and related party transactions together with our growing base of pre-orders for r1t and r1s will provide accelerated scale and demand predictability in addition we expect experiences we will gain with amazon as we deliver their fleet of edvs will enable us to improve our product offering and build capabilities to support future fleet solutions and i 100 agree with them again taking the fact that amazon is the largest investor and also the largest customer as the largest investor they would love to see riven be a success right so that's how they can use their partnership with amazon to better improve their production lines their future products and services etc now before we continue with this video i want to thank the monthl right now let's talk about some numbers that were mentioned in that s1 filings that i feel were maybe a bit overblown because well it just doesn't make sense so they say here that as of october 31st 2021 they had approximately 55 400 r1ts and r1s pre-orders in the united states and canada from customers who each paid cancelable and fully refundable deposit of one thousand dollars now just like with the cyber truck i think the cyber truck reached over one million pre-orders but those pre-orders again are also fully refundable so it doesn't really mean anything and the same thing can be said here with riven but that's not all they say here that based on their current production forecast they expect to feel the pre-order backlog of those 55 400 r1 vehicles by the end of 2023 that's 26 months from today they say that their manufacturing facility the normal factory is currently equipped to produce up to 150 000 vehicles annually and they continue by saying that the current annual install capacity for the r1 platform and the rcv platform is approximately 65 and 85 000 vehicles respectively that means that this is the rate that they think they'll reach when the equipment is operated at full rate and on multiple shifts but they said they can do this right now because it says here it is currently equipped to produce up to 150 000 vehicles so if they operate at a full rate and a multiple shifts you should expect these numbers to come out of their factory now in the last week of october they produced 104 r1t vehicles so my question is why does it take them until the end of 2023 to complete that backlog of pre-orders of 55 000 vehicles doesn't make sense right so let's use the calculator here 55 400 pre-orders right now divide that by 26 because it's 26 months from now until the end of 2023 you're at 21 vehicles produced per month times that by 12 for the full year they expect 25 569 vehicles to be produced that's 40 000 vehicles less than what they are telling us here in their s1 filings now if we go by their numbers which is 65 000 per year so 65 divided by 12 times that by 26 months we should reach 140 833 vehicles by the end of 2023 so my question here is what's that huge gap between those 55 000 vehicles and that 140 vehicles now if you add the other platform here the 85 000 then yes you reach that 140 000 mark but that's not what they told us right they told us separately 65 000 and 85 000 which will bring them at around 150 000 vehicles right this is the amount of vehicles that tesla produced yearly i think three years ago and that's around seven years after they tweaked and they managed and produced the model s so will riven be able to do this in record time i highly doubt that and also why do those numbers not add up now i do understand that right now they are ramping up etc but you could have worded it much better in your s1 right why come up with those huge numbers which clearly clearly does not reflect reality right now yes those 104 vehicles that they produced at the end of october that will probably increase over time as they're ramping up but at 65 000 and that 85 000 just doesn't make sense it doesn't even come close if they said thirty thousand thirty five thousand then okay i'll be very flexible and a big difference between five thousand and ten thousand wouldn't be really disregarded as such a red flag but such a big difference of 40 000 vehicles i think do raise some questions right now i think this video has gone on for too long so i just concluded here i'm a big tesla fan and shareholder but that does not mean that i do not want to see other companies succeed especially companies that want to push for that eevee revolution so yes i will be following riven and lucid very closely because i do see them as big winners in the future i like the car i like the brand that they're trying to build but right now the stock the valuation doesn't make any sense and apparently the market really doesn't care what's going on right now valuation-wise and it wouldn't surprise me if we see the stock price go lower each and every day right now because at 130 billion dollars i do not see any upside anymore but very much a lot of downside so michael barry here go to town and what your thoughts are on riven you like the car maybe you know someone that might have pre-ordered it is video
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