저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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강한 고용지표로 금리인하 기대가 꺾였고, 10년물 금리가 5% 이상까지 오를 수 있다고 봄. 과거 평균 장단기 스프레드(연준금리 대비 1~1.5%p) 기준으로 장기금리 상승 여지 제시. 세금감면·규제완화 효과는 과거보다 작아 금리 부담을 상쇄하기 어렵다고 평가. 조정이 와도 S&P 10% 하락 시 현금 투입 의향, 약세장(20%)은 가능성 낮게 봄. 소형주(러셀2000)는 금리인하 소멸로 부담, AI 성장주 추세는 아직 유효.
다듬은 글
bring in Wharton School professor and Wisdom Tree senior econom uh Economist Jeremy seagull Professor welcome back it's nice to see you in this new year good afternoon Scott what do you make of the Market's reaction today to that better than expected jobs report in the moving rates well the price in stocks is always a battle between the numerator and the denominator the den numerator is earnings and the strong you know it's a strong report and that's good for earnings but it also Str report also means higher interest rates that's the denominator today the denominator beat the the numerator um and uh I I think I think really the market is saying maybe no rate Cuts in 2025 um and and and that the the 10-year could very easily break well above 5% uh one has to realize and I've done the historical research over the last half century the long rate has been on average between one and one and a half percentage points above the FED funds rate we have a Fed funds rate now of 4.3% so you know do the math um you're you're talking about five five and a half uh five and 3/4 potentially on on the 10e and that's a normal term structure that's that's not anything that's unusual and I think more we got so used to this inverted curve you know with the short above the long we thought the long would stay uh uh low but that is not normal through history so now I think what investors have to say is oh my goodness all right if if the 10e goes into the fives uh earnings are going to be good but I have to take that into account I mean are you thinking that the FED might not cut anymore I know you said the market might be thinking that does that match with your own View and do you really think that the 10-year could get substantially over 5% I think it could um I think no one really you know anything could happen you know when we we talk about 3 69 12 months out clearly if things start slipping the FED will lower um but and given the growth that that we see right now under that um and if you you take a look at the Futures and adjust them for risk premiums as I do I really see that oh virtually every cut has has really been wiped out and uh looking at history I was saying that that is actually a formula for higher long-term rates and uh as you as you know you know before year end I said that this could be the year of a of a correction I don't think it's going to be a a big collapse I mean look at the vix I think crossed 20 today it's a little bit lower now that's that's a lot of hedging in the market Market um I mean there's a lot of people say oh my goodness you know uh this this could be a little bit of a dip but when you get vix at 20 I don't see a a big fall but I think you know the thought that I have to deal with maybe a five to five and a half% long Bond how do I allocate in that case that and especially for for all types of stocks small stocks are hurt because if the FED doesn't cut their interest costs remain high uh the tech stocks don't borrow at at those interest rates but they have to worry about discounting and and since they're you know such high PE ratios a small change in discounting send them lower so both those have for different reasons been depressed by the strong economic growth by the way infl no one mentioned today that the wages came in at or actually below expectation so you know it it wasn't a wage pressure uh situation over here it was really wow this this economy moves ahead at this interest rate um is you know is that our star or what we call that natural rate it's really we're very very close to that now maybe just a tiny bit restrictive uh if at all well I mean you you did have yish inflation expectations rise which maybe just added a little bit of fuel um to all this let me let me ask you this let me ask you this what weighs more on the proverbial scale if you will tax cuts and deregulation and good feeling about the new Administration and what it means for the economy or higher rates thus fewer Cuts I mean can the market overcome the ladder well as we mentioned before most remember the big tax cuts were done in the last Trump Administration the ones that are talked about now are much smaller I mean even if he can get 15 and he's talked about 15% for domestically produced I mean compare that from going down from 35 for everyone down to 21 so I mean people are saying it's a repeat but it isn't it's on a much smaller scale also he got a lot of deregulation done now unfortunately bid put some of it back but a lot of it was done I don't think are we going to get the increment again that we got in his first term so in my opinion those boosts and they are positive I don't think can overwhelm what might happen to interest rates to keep this Market uh much flatter than we've seen it for two years Yeah you mentioned the possibility of a correction um would you be a buyer of it yeah yeah I mean if we get down 10% I say on the SNP uh which would probably mean 15 to 20 on and I would put idle cash to work definitely on that I don't I do not I do not see a bare Market um which is over 20% although certainly uh there's a technical traders can can bring it there but I think you would be rewarded by buying uh below the 10% Mark what would you do with the Russell I mean the pullback looking on my screen right right now I mean the Russell over a month is down 8% it's it's obviously the first place you look I know people want to look at growth stocks Etc but um when the Russell's been in trouble the Russell is totally a story about wiping out those Fed rate Cuts because those small stocks do borrow at the Fed rate uh you know overwhelmingly and uh uh which of course large stocks really don't so I mean all their borrowing costs which were being factored in is going down 20% 30% 40% in terms of that that that just might not happen so that's going to hurt their bottom line and that's the problem with the Russell 2000 so once it gets used to the fact hey maybe we won't have any rate Cuts I mean you take a look at their valuation say hey I can sit on them at this particular level um because valuations at 12 13 14 15 times earnings historically have been rewarding to investors I mean I know we're talking about the the Russell and and sometimes we use it as a proxy for the the so-called Broad bring trade but the broadening trade does have a problem if rates remain where they are if not back up even further correct yeah absolutely well don't forget I mean the you know there's two things there's the value growth and then there's the the small stock now most of the small stocks you know although we divide them in a value of growth many of them are are more of those value stocks so both of the value story and uh uh even among the big stocks which have dividend yields which are Challen alled by the interest rates and the small stocks which have interest costs which are challenged by the the lack of interest rates they they both suffer and they have both suffered and the AI narrative now we you know you talked about Apple and what might happen there the AI narrative is still intact and um there's no real Trend break of the the the uh the growth stocks relative to the value stocks or the mag 7 there's really not yet a in any sort of major Trend break so that's one of the longest established Trends um and that train is still going at this point all right we'll leave it there good weekend to you Professor we'll see you soon I'm sure of that Professor Jeremy seagull at the Wharton School we do have some news welcome back to overtime stocks closing sharply lower after a hotter than expected December jobs report and a jump in inflation expectations 10-year yield surging to its highest level since late 2023 let's bring in Alan's chief economic adviser Muhammad Al Aran uh Muhammad good to see you so combine those inflation expectations with the hot jobs report what has to happen for this to be good say for an S&P that's already trading at a historically High multiple so first it is good that the economy is doing well John we must not lose sight of the fact that US economic exceptionalism provides the only locomotive of growth for the global economy so as as disrupted as markets may be because this was a hot employment report the alternative of a weak one would be much worse news for not just the us but around the world in terms of what it means for investors investors are going to be increasingly pushed into a bar looking for high quality yield over here and being more opportunistic over here and more agile including going to private markets I think that what you're seeing is this transition from market-based investing to theme based investing and now it's going to be much more individual names H okay well now also that we have this jobs report behind us attention is going to turn to earnings but we've got the strong dollar so for multinationals in particular how's that going to affect guidance yeah and we also have an inflation report coming up next week as you discussed earlier look analysts right now had to take seriously that the dollar Index is almost at 110 the Euro it's almost at parity and that is going to impact multinationals and they should take that into account and it's going to be a headwind to us denominated earnings um from abroad and just just a reality of us outperforming the rest of the world muhhamad I'm going to ask you a question I asked uh Elliott earlier and that is are the B Bond vigilantes back in this market and by the way not just here in the US but globally especially we look at what's been happening in the UK for example they definitely back globally and what you see in the UK is that very strange combination of them having had higher increases in yields than us and yet that currency has weakened significantly that combination of high yields and weak currency you typically see more an emerging economy where Bond vigilantes are much more active so yes they are back I think what we are having here Morgan is not as much the above vigilante as much the reality of three things one is growth is stronger than anticipated two is inflation is stickier than anticipated and three we have the reality of high deficit and high debt I want to get your thoughts on this quiet climb we've seen in crude oil in recent weeks energy stocks are actually the best performing sector to start this year after being the worst performing in the S&P last year but but oil in general has been moving higher may be part of its sanctions but is it sustainable yeah I mean you got a 3% move today you've had a 10% move over the last few weeks this is significant and it adds to the inflationary pressures the one today is purely in terms of sanctions on Russia that thek Market believes will be much firmer this time around than they've been in the past so you're looking at a supply side issue and the big question for o is whether OPEC plus um will OPEC in particular because the plus side is is Russia but OPEC and Saudi Arabia in particular will want to increase production but this is all supply side it is not a demand issue it's a supply issue a lot of crosscurrents for investors to navigate right now Muhammad Lan thanks for joining us thank you throw earnings into the mix starting next week it's time now for a CNBC news update with dear jaosa Hi D hey Morgan Amazon is just the latest company to roll back some of its diversity and inclusion programs Amazon's announcement follows the similar move by meta earlier today and joins a wave of companies reversing plans for Dei programs such as Walmart John Deere and Ford meanwhile a majority of the US intelligence Community found no evidence that foreign powers were to blame for the mysterious Havana syndrome incidents reported by some government employees but in a new assessment released today two intelligence agencies which were not identified said it was possible a foreign power could have developed or even used a weapon to cause the incidents that first appeared in Cuba in 2016 and more than 150,000 doctors have signed a letter urging Senators not to confirm Robert F Kennedy Jr As president-elect Trump secretary for Health and Human Services that's in a letter posted online the doctors said Kennedy's well-documented promotion of false medical claims made him dangerous for the position back over to you guys president-elect Trump expressed an interest in acquiring Greenland during his first Administration and as he gets set to settle back into the White House his interest in the world's largest island is heating up again Pippa Stevens looks at why Greenland is so important to Trump and to this conversation around the US hey Morgan well president-elect Trump is eyeing greenand for three key reasons Rich mineral resources access to valuable shipping routes and strategically important location especially as Russia and China uh ramp up their operations in the Arctic and has tensions with those two countries flare now drilling down a little bit Greenland has 25 of the 34 minerals deemed critical by the EU that includes lithium graphite and copper those are vital of course for iPhones electric vehicle batteries Greenland also has a large deposit of rare Earths which are really important for everything from wind turbines to military equipment and computer chips and China currently dominates that market now the Arctic Ice is melting meaning that shipping routes around Greenland are becoming more accessible significantly cutting transit times and costs the two key ones to watch are the Northwest Passage that is the Orange Line there as well as the trans-arctic route that is the purple line and as you can see it really cuts down on the time and the cost of going all the way around you also avoid bottlenecks like the Panama Canal and finally the location is really important an the US has had a base in Greenland since the 1940s and it currently operates the pitu space base up there in the northwest of Greenland it includes things like missile defense and space monitoring and with Russia and China increasing their operations in the area the ongoing us access Morgan and John is really what's key here yeah and from a military defense National Security perspective when you're talking about ballistic missile defense and early Warning Systems it's absolutely crucial uh our footprint there and and and being able to monitor the air space there and and the space space there uh as well for the future so certainly there's a conversation to be had about what military presence from a US standpoint looks like in Greenland moving forward but I want to go back to the rare Earth's piece of this because I realize we have an earth that is uh warming in temperature you're starting to see some of those glacial masses uh melt in a more meaningful way so when we talk about rare Earths and extraction of rare Earths in a place like Greenland is that even on the the table now because of that well so far they are not extracting anything and certainly at nowhere near Commercial scale they did have two mines in operation for rubies and anorthosite which are not critical elements anorthosite is found in things like Paint and Glass and so while there are all of these hopes that there could be one day this massive extraction effort to dat there hasn't been and it's really really hard they only have 56,000 people they don't have the workforce if you want to have a mining operation you would have to bring in skilled l from elsewhere not really open to that at this point and also they are very aware of not having their resources plundered by other countries and so when the natives of Greenland look to what their future looks like I think they want to bring in companies that are thoughtful about their extraction methods however they have really been targeted as a key area and we've seen Bill Gates and uh Jeff Bezos among others backing company called Cobalt materials which is just one of the companies that's exploring in greeland so for the time being Morgan a lot of Hope but so far nothing is actually coming out of the you know more than 80% ice that covers Greenland all right pppa Stevens thank you
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