저자: Daniel · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 주가가 고점 대비 크게 하락한 이유를 분석. 밸류에이션(매출 50배→10배 이하)이 과도했던 점, 아직 GAAP 적자이고 잉여현금흐름이 미미한 점, 2분기 매출 성장률 가이던스(25%)가 기대에 못 미친 점을 지적. 상업 매출 54% 성장과 순달러유지율 124%는 시장점유율 확대 신호로 긍정 평가. 향후 5년간 주요 지수를 상회할 가능성을 언급하나 본인은 아직 매수하지 않았다고 함.
다듬은 글
Palantir shares hit new lows, falling more than 20% today , after falling more than 70% in the past few months alone. Investors are curious about what is happening. In this video, I will talk about their latest quarterly results. I will also talk about why stocks fell so much . I will also share my personal thoughts on the valuation and full disclosure.
This is not financial advice. This is your first time listening, my name is Daniel. You are watching Unrivaled Investing. This is a no-fuss channel focused on the mission. I strive to find exceptional companies and unbeatable investments for you. Many people got carried away by the hype around Palantir, saying, "Wow, these stocks are incredible." Ignoring, I would say, the fundamental evaluation system that needs to be taken into account when considering any company.
And Palantir, although they continue to grow , shares are falling because they may have been overvalued in the past. And I'll talk about this dynamic and much more . Personally, I think looking at Palantir now, and keep in mind, again , this is not financial advice, but looking at Palantir now, I think it has the potential to outperform the major U.S.
indices , say, over the next 5 years. Um, you know, given the dynamics, which we'll talk about in a second. So, if this is your first time viewing our page, please be sure to click the " Subscribe" button. So, let's take a look at what's happening with Palantir shares. First, their valuation fell sharply, and the main reason why the stock fell so much is because the valuation was simply too high.
It was trading at about 50 times the sales price, and I made a few videos warning investors, “Hey guys, I have personal experience. I used to work for a multi-billion dollar hedge fund. I also worked as a CFO at a startup that grew revenue from a few million dollars to $40 million. So, like, I'm familiar with fundamentals and I'm thinking about business valuation, and there are a bunch of people here, hype people, who say, "Wow, this stock with 50x sales—that's incredible.
Fly to the Moon. 20x sales, fly to the moon. I'm like, " People, you know, check the hype at the door." This is a no-fuss, mission-oriented channel. Let's try to understand what's really happening." So, let's dive in from here, understanding that the valuation has fallen by about 80-90% because it has gone from 50 times sales now to less than 10 times sales.
Let's figure out what's going on, you know, from here let's think about where this is all going and why these stocks aren't growing rapidly. So, looking at their Q1 2022 results, they're still showing very solid growth, revenue growth over 30%, commercial business up 54%, commercial in the US. So that means that commercial customers in the US, such as non- government US customers, are growing by 136%.
This, you know, when I see data like this, it means they're capturing market share. This means they have a strong value proposition. This is what I want to find in my personal investment journey. I want to find unbeatable companies that can grow faster than the market. And when you are unbeatable, it gives you the right to grow in the long run.
So, seeing data like that, it supports the thesis that they are doing something special. Maybe it's the software, maybe it's their sales force, maybe it's a combination of both, but they're doing something special here to grow so quickly. And another key aspect of why stocks have been punished is that they are still unprofitable.
They talk about fake nonsense , you know, about adjusted profit margins when you add in huge amounts of stock-based compensation. Again , check the commotion at the door. This is a channel without hype . Stock-based compensation is a very real expense. So when I look at this business , I say, “No, I’m not going to add stock-based compensation.
I'm going to look at your actual rate of return to try to figure out where the stock is going in the future?" So, look, it's still a loss, and in this market, a lot of loss-making stocks are just getting punished. Partly because when you have a market like we have now, potentially facing a recession, we're in a bear market right now, I would say you want to have those cash flows so that the CEO has the ability to buy back shares quickly.
Yes, management is talking about positive free cash flow. If you look at the numbers, the reality is that they only generated about 15 million in free cash flow last quarter. That's not a lot of free cash flow for share buybacks. They have a certain amount of cash on their balance sheet. That's fine, but I would prefer to see actual free cash flow from operating activities.
And at the moment it is still a loss-making business. Another key aspect of the stock's decline is that it is only projecting 25% growth in the second quarter. And this contradicts management's long-term perspective: "We believe we can grow by more than 30% in the long term." That's exactly what Alex Karp said.
So, to say, “Oh, yeah, only 25% next quarter” is a little disappointing. This is partly due to the timing of government spending, perhaps it will increase in the second half of the year, but we'll see. And that's a key aspect of why the stock is falling, slightly slower expectations, as well as a big hit to valuation.
You know, another key aspect to consider as to why I think Palantir stock will fall is the fact that there is this philosopher CEO who talks about all sorts of random things during the conversation. He talks about food shortages, he talks about nuclear events, he says that rampant inflation, the probability of a nuclear event is much higher than it is presented to the public, and Palantir plays a crucial, critical, decisive and much larger role than we are allowed to mention.
And he even has time during the conversation, for example, to talk about the metaverse and how we're not dealing with a metaverse, or a theological world, or a financial version of a theological world, or... a graduate school version of a theological world . You know, I look at this, and yeah, it's funny to throw shade at Zuckerberg, and you know, I think Alex Karp thinks he's dropping these truth bombs here.
But the reality is that Wall Street doesn't care. Wall Street doesn't care about you dropping these truth bombs. And I think Alex Karp is kind of a mad scientist, and you know, at this point, like you used to be on Wall Street, you were like, "Wow, super cool mad scientist." " Now people are waking up and saying, 'Wow, this guy is totally wrong .'" You know, he's kind of like, "I think he's on the spectrum of disorder ." There's nothing wrong with that , but I'm just saying that these letters that he writes, you know, these spontaneous remarks.
It has nothing to do with the Palantir thesis, right? Does it make any sense?" Well, actually, I think that he, having this diffuse approach, bringing up all these things, is actually trying to say, "Yeah, a lot of this is actually related to Palantir, because you know, he's trying to say that when there are real problems, you know, when something happens, who are you going to call?
" And he's saying, "Yeah, Palantir is going to be the one who, when there's a problem in Ukraine , yeah , our software will be deployed, and we'll be, you know, the one who's going to try to solve those problems ." And so, for example, one of their commercial customers , Pacific Gas and Electric, uses Foundry, they talk about Foundry being our central decision-making platform based on data and situational intelligence .
They say it's critical to helping them manage climate threats and the ever-changing risks of wildfires in California. And by providing critical software infrastructure for these businesses as well as governments, it's driving a net dollar retention of 124%. So it's not just rapid growth, as I mentioned earlier, but also a strong commitment to their customers, where their existing customer base is spending more on Palantir , spending 24% more this year.
So that business would have grown 24% without adding new customers. That's what that 124% means. And that means it's a critical platform when you have real problems that you have to deal with. So the question is, what's the right value for Palantir when we weigh up the different fundamentals? First, a quick explanation: if you're either struggling in the current investment environment where you're just trying to protect your investments, your savings, or you want to find potential multi-profile investors.
Types of stocks that have the potential to grow hundreds or even thousands of percent over time. Go to unrivaledinvesting.com. You know, I have this weekly email that goes out to Unrivaled Investing subscribers. I also share my personal investing journey so you can see what kind of value investments Daniel is making?
Also, what hyper-growth things I'm looking at for my real money portfolio that I report to Unrivaled Investing subscribers every week. So again, this is unrivaledinvesting.com. And a big thank you to the Unrivaled Investing subscribers who keep this channel going. Without them, this video wouldn't be here.
So thank you very much if you're an Unrivaled Investing subscriber. And so when you think about Palantir, it's first and foremost a critical software infrastructure across all areas, whether it's it's, you know, geopolitical conflicts, or manufacturing, or fighting potential wildfires. So you see them deploying mission- critical software.
It's going to be tough. They're going to continue to grow. It's kind of a perspective. And you look at that and you see a 16% overall increase in government revenue. It's a little disappointing, but part of it is just like, "Hey, you know how fast the government moves?" When are you going to win big contracts?
"But their total commercial revenue grew 54%. Again , that confirms that they're capturing market share, that they have a strong value proposition. So looking at that, looking at the hypothetical valuation system again, of course, the stock price could go much higher, much lower. Looking at the price right now at around $750 a share, I look at that, and I think you could predict over 100% growth over the next 5 years, now that the stock price is where it is.
Um, looking at that, a lot of people get confused about the actual number of fully diluted shares outstanding. You have to look at the latest, you know, 10-K and 10-Q. Look at the anti-dilutive securities , and you realize that there are hundreds of millions that you have to add in there to think about their real market cap.
So their real market cap... ignore what you you see in a lot of different videos on YouTube or, you know, on different financial services, do the math for yourself. Right now, it's about 2.5 billion fully diluted shares, if you also include anti-dilutive shares. I made a whole video about that, the one where big belly was talking about the excess.
It's, you know, watch that video if you want to understand it in more detail. So, overall, this business is still valued at almost $20 billion , even at $7.50 a share. You know, potentially, you know, 25% to 30% growth, you know, this year, 2022, they're planning to grow about 25%, you know, next quarter, over 30% for the first quarter.
So, I'm saying 25% to 30% this year. Long term, I'm saying they can get to 25% to 30% profitability. They might . They have a gross margin of about 80%. So it's going to require them to continue to say, "Hey, we're not going to spend all of our gross profit, and we're going to gradually grow our actual operating profit ." Management has talked about the importance of being a profitable company.
So, I think maybe you'll see attractive margins in the long term. That said, it shows me, you know, that I need to see them continue to operate. Their margins have improved, but it's still a very unprofitable business when you look at it from a GAAP profit perspective. From a free cash flow perspective, they're a little above breakeven, but part of that is also due to significant amounts of stock-based compensation.
So looking at it right now , it's trading at less than 10 times sales. If you were to adjust for, you know, hypothetical profits that they could be making if they had a 25 to 30% margin right now, you would said, "Yeah, it's trading at about 40 to 50 times adjusted earnings if, you know, they could get that margin today." Obviously not.
So then the question is, "What's the growth rate in the years ahead?" Because I always like to think, you know, look five years ahead. You know, I try to be a long-term investor. So I say, "Yeah, let's give credit to Alex Karp, who said, "Yeah, 30% growth." So I think of that as a center case , saying maybe a little bit below, maybe a little bit above, you know, that growth rate for the next few years.
And you would ask, "Yeah, what's the earnings multiple five years ahead?" Somewhere between 20 and 30 times earnings. I say that because, you know, maybe their growth rate in a few years will be closer to, you know, in five years it will be closer to 20%. You know, what is that ultimate multiple? And you can make your own assumptions.
And if you have a strong opinion about what that multiple should be , I'd love to hear it. But, you know, make sure you don't let the dark side of the hype cloud your perspective when you say, "Oh, it should be 60 times earnings ." You know, a lot of people have said, " Daniel, your multiples are just too low." And I hear that over and over again.
But the reality is, "No, I think I'm trying to justify this with a conservative reality when I look at it." So, I look at it and I think, you know, Palantir has the potential to very good and fast growth in the coming years. If you compare that to a broad index like the S &P 500, you know, the long-term S&P 500, the earnings growth is about 6%.
So, you know , 30% versus 6% is one of the reasons why Palantir has the potential to grow faster, I would say, than looking at something like the S&P. Now you always have to look at not just the fundamentals, but also the valuation. And now that the valuation has come down so much, that's why I wouldn't be surprised if, within five years, Palantir outperforms, say, a large index like the S&P.
And I think the S&P could have very poor returns over the next few years. And so I look at all of those aspects, you know, when I look at it. Personally, I haven't pulled the trigger on Palantir yet, you know, partly because I want to own things like... First of all, I've been reaching out to my Unravel Investing subscribers, that, you know, I think there's been a huge shift in the market, caused by the Federal Reserve actually overpricing assets.
And now a lot of that foam is going to come out. So when there's a bottom, I just want to get crazy bargains. I want things that are really cheap. And that means you have real free cash flow and you get real earnings multiples. So if I don't have real free cash flow and real earnings multiples, like maybe right now, it's just free cash flow that's acceptable to Palantir.
They're not making hundreds of millions in free cash flow. But when, you know, with this current situation with Palantir, I would like to get a discount on that . I would say, "Okay, I want to factor that in. So I want even more upside potential from what I'm looking at." So I'm not ready to pull the trigger yet.
Palantir. I'm not entirely sure, but maybe when I'm projecting 100% growth in my pessimistic scenario, then I would say, "Okay, that's a little more compelling because I'm being compensated for that risk, this assumption that they're going to be profitable someday." And that's a key aspect in this market.
And where there's some value, you know, and I'm reaching out to Unrivaled Investing subscribers, you know, some of the things that I have where they actually have free cash flow right now. You know, where it's like, "Hey, this is trading at 13 times free cash flow. This is trading at 15 times free cash flow, and they're growing." So that partly explains why the question is, "Okay, would I rather own something that's, let's say, growing 5 to 10% per year?" year, but is trading at 13 times free cash flow, would I be better off owning something that is losing money and growing at 30%?
Maybe the valuation is too high.” We’ll see. In a bear market, it’s often hard to know where the buyer is and where they are , because people say, “Well, what’s the fundamental value here?” And many people ask themselves, "Well, where's the margin?" And when you don't actually see that profitability, there can be huge swings, and that's partly why Amazon stock fell 90% during the dot-com boom .
It's because people didn't know, "Well, what's the margin going to be on this business?" And they say, "Well, I do n't know. I'll, you know, get out of this." You see this with a lot of losing companies. You might continue to see this. I'm not ready to pull the trigger yet. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Palantir stock outperforms the major indexes in the coming years.
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