저자: JoaquinLopez · 외국인
요약 보기
영상 결론: 연준이 금리 인상의 파급효과를 과소평가해 주택가격 10~15% 하락 등 불필요한 고통을 줄 수 있으며, 개인은 집값보다 월 상환액 관리가 더 중요하다는 주장. 모기지 신청 동향: 최근 주간 모기지 신청이 2주 연속 증가 후 한 주 감소했고, 재융자는 전주 대비 13% 감소·전년 대비 86% 감소, 주택구매 신청은 전주 대비 4% 증가했으나 전년 대비 41% 낮은 사상 최저 수준이라고 설명. 변동금리 대출 비중: 2000년 대비 낮았던 변동금리 비중(8.8%)이 9.0%로 소폭 상승했으나 변동금리 사용은 대부분 피해야 한다고 강조. 대출 금리 수준: 평균 일반 모기지 금리 6.49%, FHA 6.57%, 기타 6.35%, ARM 5.48%로 제시되었고, ARM이 고정금리보다 약 1%p 낮아 단기 월 상환이 적어 보이는 함정을 경고. 제레미 시겔 주장: 모기지 금리가 1년 새 3%에서 7%로 두 배 이상 올라 2분기부터 평균 집값이 44만 달러에서 37.5만 달러로 10~15% 하락할 수 있다는 전망. 연준은 후행 지표(CPI 내 주거비, 특히 OER 등 약 50% 비중)만 보고 있으며, 실제 집값·임대료 하락을 반영하지 못한다고 주장. 연준 정책 전망: 최근 3주간 국채시장은 인플레이션 둔화와 연준의 금리 인상 일시 중단 가능성을 반영했고, 12월 인상폭은 50bp로 이전보다 완화될 것이라는 해석. 개인 재무 조언: 집값은 15~90%까지도 조정될 수 있지만 월 상환액이 감당 불가능하면 대출 승인이 안 되므로 재무 상태 개선이 우선. 2023년을 위한 여섯 단계로 유튜브 채널 시작, 1000달러 비상 저축, 스노볼 방식 부채 상환, 3~6개월 비상자금, 은퇴계좌 개설, 소득형 부동산 매입을 제시. 진행자 Joaquin Lopez는 사회자로 발언 대상에서 제외하며 출연자 소속은 제목·설명란에 없어 미상 처리.
다듬은 글
Good morning, family. Well, yesterday we had two pieces of good news: the Federal Reserve, giving the impression that they understand what's happening in the economy and that their monetary policy change is undoubtedly having an effect; and on the other hand, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment report, which is the most important one of all, comes out tomorrow.
Sorry, but the DEPP report came out yesterday. Now we're going to talk about the report that came out yesterday from the Mortgage Bankers Association, and also what Professor Jeremy Sigo, one of the most respected economists in the country, said about house prices, given the Federal Reserve's mistake of predicting a 10 to 15 percent drop in 2023.
Please, if you want to stay informed about everything, remember to give me a like and subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications. Let's begin. Mortgage applications fell after having increased for two consecutive weeks due to lower mortgage rates. We'll see that mortgage applications in general fell for a week after having increased for two weeks, but let's break it down into the two main disciplines: refinancing and purchasing.
Refinancing fell 13% Compared to the previous week and increased, sorry, and continues to suffer compared to a year ago 86% 86 percent. Rightly so, banks are suffering so much on their balance sheets right now. The purchase application index increased four percent compared to a week ago. Remember, Eva, increasing two weeks ago because buyers are trying to take advantage of the reduction in mortgage rates, and in the last three weeks we have already seen purchase applications increase.
However, they continue 41% below a year ago, a record low. Compared to 2000, that is, 22 years ago, the proportion of people using adjustable-rate loans had fallen to 8.8 percent last week. Well, it just increased to 9.0 percent. That's not good. Remember that you shouldn't use adjustable rates in most cases.
There are people who find justification for buying with adjustable rates. Please don't. Adjustable rates increased to 9%. The FHA fell to 12.2%, well, it increased to 11.2%, and the USDA Agriculture rate fell to 0.5%. That's very difficult to rate. Finding a property with which we can buy is difficult.
Therefore, the average conventional mortgage rate of 6.49% (FHA 6.57%, John Bolon 6.35%, and Arm or Yosstoph 5.48%) is not used much. That is the main reason why more people this week applied for adjustable-rate mortgages because it is one percent below the fixed-rate mortgage, which makes the monthly payment lower in the short term.
But don't make the mistake of falling into that trap because you do n't know what the mortgage rate might be in five years, and therefore you could have a problem. Well, let's see what Jeremy Sigo said. I'm with CNBC, and remember, I always leave all the reports in the video description in case you want to see the interviews yourselves.
Jeremy Sigo was one of those people who said that inflation was running high before the Federal Reserve spoke about it, and Jeremy Silver is one of those who now says that the Federal Reserve has to start easing inflation since they are always late and it will cause more pain than necessary. To curb inflation, specifically in the housing market, by causing house prices to fall 10 to 15% next year, let me explain.
As Jeremy says, the mortgage rate has more than doubled in the last year, from three to seven percent, meaning that from the second quarter, the average home price could fall from $440,000 to $375,000, a 10 to 15% drop. Furthermore, he talks about the problem of housing inflation, that the Federal Reserve is looking backward and not at what is happening right now and what might happen in the future.
Let me explain: in the latest CPI report, especially in the CPA (Consumer Price Index), which is the one the Federal Reserve looks at ( excluding food and energy, where only the least volatile and most important factors remain), housing plays a role of almost 50% in the CPA and nuclear. What does that mean?
That housing is the aspect that carries the most weight in the family budget. Therefore, Jeremy Silver says this: the Federal Reserve is seeing an increase in the cost of housing when looking back, but all Anyone who watches the real estate market daily, like you and me, especially on Sundays when we go live and review what's happened in the last week, knows that prices are falling and rents are falling, meaning that the 0.7% positive real increase is actually 0.7% negative, and therefore completely eliminates the nuclear inflation that accounts for 50% of housing.
Let me try to translate what Jeremy said: "Yes, house prices and rental prices have risen considerably. And the Federal Reserve is looking at that report, but the Federal Reserve isn't seeing that the interest rate hikes they've caused have led to the worst drop in real estate transactions in decades, resulting not only in falling house prices but also falling rental prices.
Therefore, they can put a pause on their monetary aggression; otherwise, they're going to tighten it much more than they need, causing house prices to plummet and the financial system to enter a recession," says Germa, the one who is 100% virtually guaranteed, meaning Jeremy Silver says we've already beaten inflation, but the Federal Reserve has made us realize this, causing more pain in the economy and a collapse in house prices.
But here's my biggest frustration: What happens to the monthly payment if the Federal Reserve keeps raising rates? The monthly payment keeps increasing. However, in the last three weeks, the Treasury market hasn't seen a more aggressive Federal Reserve; instead, it has seen inflation reports that suggest inflation may be falling and that the Federal Reserve is going to start pausing.
And yesterday, Jeremy Power implied that the Federal Reserve is already understanding this and that, for the first time, December will be softer than the recent increases, and it will only be 50 basis points. Now, my question is, if you're buying with cash, are you concerned about the Federal Reserve?
Yes, because it can cause the price of the property you're buying to go down. But if you're buying like the rest of us mortals, like all of us who buy properties with financing, are you concerned about what happens to the price? Yes, but even more so about what happens to the monthly payment. The property price can correct itself.
15, 20, 30, 90 percent, but if the monthly payment is out of your reach, the bank won't approve you, and you'll miss the opportunity to buy another property. Moral of the story: Fix your financial situation. Give this crazy guy a like and follow six steps that will help you a lot. It's December, the year is practically over.
What are you proud of having done in 2022? Here are six steps that can help you in 2023. I want you to be proud of having started a YouTube channel about your passion or your talent—it can be both. Start doing this; you'll help many people and improve your emotional and financial situation. Number 2: Save a thousand dollars as quickly as possible.
Number 3: Pay off all your debts using the snowball method. Number 4: Save three to six months' worth of emergency funds. Number 5: Open a retirement account. And number 6: Don't buy your dream house; buy an income-generating property. If you liked this, give me a like, subscribe to the channel, and tell me what you think.
Jeremy is talking about how the Federal Reserve hasn't realized the change and is going to cause more pain than necessary. Let me know your opinion.
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