저자: JoaquinLopez · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준의 긴축 속도가 둔화되고 인플레이션이 꺾인다는 낙관론을 제시하지만, 발표 후 금리 상승 가능성에 대비해야 한다는 입장. 미국 CPI 전망: 헤드라인 CPI 전년비 7.3% 예상(전월 7.7%), 전월비 0.2% 상승. 근원 CPI 전년비 6.1% 예상(전월 6.3%), 전월비 0.4% 상승. 진행자 본인은 7.4%로 더 높게 봄. 소비 구조 변화: 상품 가격은 하락세이나 서비스 가격은 상승. 사람들이 물건 소비를 줄이고 경험·서비스에 지출을 늘리는 흐름. 연준 전망: 이번 FOMC에서 50bp 인상이 예상되며, 이후 2월에는 동결(pause) 가능성. 연말까지 기준금리가 3%까지 인하될 수 있다고 제시하나 이는 심각한 경기침체 시나리오와 연결된다고 경고. 제시 시갈(Jeremy Siegel) 주장: 인플레이션은 끝났고 디스인플레이션을 거쳐 디플레이션으로 갈 수 있음. 연준이 과거 데이터(주거비 등)를 보고 있어 과잉 긴축 위험이 있으며, 주택가격·임대료는 이미 하락 중. 국채금리는 하락할 것이며 2023년 중 연준이 금리를 3%까지 내릴 것으로 예상. 뉴욕 연준 기대인플레이션: 1년 후 5.2%, 3년 후 3%, 5년 후 2.3%로 하락 전망. 임금은 연 2.8% 상승으로 실질임금은 마이너스. 금리·모기지: 10년물 국채금리가 약 3.62%로 급등. 진행자는 금리 추가 상승 위험을 피하기 위해 이번 주 앞서 모기지 금리를 확정(락인)했다고 밝힘. 시장 영향 시나리오: CPI가 예상보다 높으면 연준이 더 공격적으로 나와 주식시장 하락, 국채금리 상승, 부동산 가격 추가 부진으로 이어질 수 있음. 부동산 조언: 월 상환액과 임대수익성이 중요하며, 자산 형성 6단계(SNS 콘텐츠 제작, 1천달러 저축, 부채 상환, 3~6개월 비상자금, 퇴직계좌 개설, 실거주용보다 수익형 부동산 매입)를 제시. 결론적으로 진행자는 CPI가 7.3~7.4% 수준일 것으로 보며, 인플레이션 둔화에 대한 낙관과 긴축 지속에 대한 경계를 동시에 제시.
다듬은 글
Hello family, tomorrow is one of the most important days of the month because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released. But in addition to that, the Federal Reserve meeting will begin, ending on Wednesday. As the market expects, they will likely raise the CPI by 50 points, but the most important thing is not the amount of the increase itself, but what they will say afterward.
Today we'll discuss the most important events, the expectations surrounding tomorrow's CPI report, and the key aspects. We'll also talk about the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and its expectations for inflation, which is very positive. Finally, we'll discuss Jeremy Sigo, one of the most accurate economists of the last two years, who said today that inflation has disappeared and the Federal Reserve will enter the third stage of change in 2023.
Stay tuned! Finally, so you're aware of everything that happened today, all I ask is that you please give me a like and share the video with someone you think might find it useful. Let's look at the expectations for the CPI that will be released tomorrow. The expectations are that the CPI will come in at 7.3 percent.
Remember that last month it came in at 7.7 percent, so that would be a considerable drop year- over-year, and month-over-month it would be an increase of 0.2 percent. And in nuclear, that is, when you eliminate the volatility of energy and food, which in fact canceled each other out in the CPI because the price of food increased by 3.3 percent and the price of energy fell, nuclear is expected to come in at 6.1 percent.
Remember that last month it came in at 6.3 percent, and that month-over-month it will be an increase of 0.4 percent, which is not positive. Remember that something very interesting is happening in the economy: the costs of products are falling, but inflation is also falling. The cost of goods is rising, and inflation is increasing.
The cost of services is also rising. You're spending less, and therefore the cost of the boxes you buy on Amazon is inflating less, but the cost of a massage or a waiter at a restaurant is increasing more. I hope that's clear. We're buying fewer things; we're spending more money on experiences and services.
Before we get into Jeremy, I'll stop asking you what your expectations are for the CPI. It's expected to be 7.3 for the regular and 6.1 for the nuclear. These are positive compared to a month ago, but most of the market thinks they're too positive, and if it comes in above expectations, the Federal Reserve might comment negatively, causing a shift in public opinion.
Let me know your opinion. 7.3 for the regular and 6.1 for the nuclear. Let me know your opinion. Jeremy, one of the country's economists who has been most accurate in recent years regarding inflation, was one of the first to say we're going to have inflation. And he's one of the first to speak out regarding the Federal Reserve.
It has to pause; otherwise, they're going to tighten too much and cause a... Severe recession, because Jeremy Sigo says the Federal Reserve is evaluating past information instead of current information, especially in the housing market. Jeremy Sigo says we've already seen house prices falling, we've already seen rental prices falling, and that the Federal Reserve continues to look at past reports that say a 10% increase, a 12% increase, a 9% increase, and that it should be looking forward and not backward, and that housing spending, as we know, has a very large weight in the inflation rates.
And these are the four points Jeremy Sigo mentions today. Okay, he says point number one: the Federal Reserve is going to increase rates by 50 basis points, that is, in the first phase, a reduction of the increases they had been making, 75 basis points in the first phase, 50 basis points on Wednesday, that is, in two days, and in the second phase in February, where they won't increase rates by 25 basis points, they will simply pause the second phase.
Let's look at the four points so you can see what Jeremy Sigo says and then you can draw your own conclusions. But this is one of the economists who has been most accurate about inflation. Point number two: He says inflation It's completely over. Now there's disinflation, and then there will be deflation.
Remember that deflation is the fall in prices of both consumer goods and services, along with a fall in production or the country's gross domestic product. That's deflation. Aspect number three: the Treasury will continue to fall because it understands that inflation has disappeared, and therefore the mortgage rate will also fall, resulting in a much more comfortable monthly payment for the first-time buyer.
And aspect number four: we already talked about the reduction from 75 to 50. Phase number one: it will pause in February. Phase number two and phase number three is that they will cut federal rates to three percent before the end of the year. Right now, we're between 3.75 and 4.00 percent. When they make the increase on Wednesday, which is expected to be 50 points, we'll be between 3.00 and 4.00 percent.
As a result, if there are no further increases, according to what Jeremy says, I'm still in 2023. He's saying that we're going to see the Federal Reserve cut to reach... 3% again. If that happens, it's because we're in a very aggressive economic recession, for which the Federal Reserve will have to do what they say they have to do: cut spending and print money again.
Let's hope we do n't get to that point and that the Federal Reserve can control the situation. Well, what happened today with the Federal Reserve of New York? They released their inflation forecast, expecting it to fall to 5.2 percent next year, the lowest point in expectations since August 2021, when it was rising.
In three years, inflation will fall to 3%, and in five years, inflation will fall to 2.3 percent. Along with that, wages will increase in the next 12 months by 2.8 percent, resulting in a negative real wage when you count nominal wages increasing against inflation, which is increasing more than wages, resulting in a negative real wage.
Let me know what your opinion is about the Federal Reserve of New York and its inflation forecast. And why is all this so important? If the Federal Reserve reads the inflation results, especially tomorrow's result, which is key, remember, the CPI is published at 5:30 in the morning, and the meeting begins.
The Federal Reserve will hold its annual report at 11 a.m., and the results will be released on Wednesday. If the Federal Reserve sees an improvement in inflation and begins to reduce its aggressiveness in the monetary system, we could see a better economy in 2023 because there will be less pressure on businesses, families, and so on.
But today, the Treasury rate increased considerably, to around 3.62 percent. This is practically the reason why I explained to you last week about locking in my mortgage rates for the purchase of this property by the end of the year. It could be that the Federal Reserve becomes aggressive, and that increase, along with that fifty- point increase, combined with an aggressive Federal Reserve, could cause the Treasury rate to continue rising, leading to what we saw today: the mortgage rate increasing.
And I don't want to run that risk. That's why last week I locked in the mortgage rates on the property that we are about to close on, God willing. I don't want to run the risk of the mortgage rate continuing to rise. What do you think about the CPI tomorrow? Will it come in... 7.3, as the market is generally expecting, some people are expecting 7.6, others 7.2.
What's your expectation? 7.3. I want to be optimistic, but it seems to me that given the CPI we had on Friday, the CPI might be a bit hot, and I'm going to go to 7.4 percent instead of 7.3. I'm going to go higher. 7.4 percent is still a reduction compared to a month ago, but it seems to me that 7.3 is a bit aggressive.
What's your opinion on this? If the CPI increases, just like the CPI did, which had a slight increase or above expectations, the Federal Reserve will come out more aggressive on Wednesday, targeting what happened with the CPI, causing the stock market to fall and Treasury rates to rise, and the Treasury rate affecting the mortgage market, resulting in property prices continuing to suffer.
But remember, it's not about the price, but the monthly payment versus the property's profitability. If you don't know where to start, don't worry. There are six steps that I know can help you. All I ask is that you please give me a like and share with someone. Do you think this might help? Tomorrow is going to be a very important day, and Wednesday is another important day.
What's your opinion on this? Do you agree with Jeremy Seawell that inflation has disappeared and that we're just reading past information? Or do you think that inflation is still stuck in the economy and that, therefore, the Federal Reserve has to continue being aggressive, creating more unemployment and less consumption to bring inflation down?
What 's your opinion on this? I want to be optimistic and think that inflation has disappeared; however, I don't think that 7.3—I'm going to say 7.4—will be the CPI tomorrow. What's your opinion? And here are six steps that can help you: Number one: Start creating content on social media about your passion, about your talent.
Number two: Save a thousand dollars as quickly as possible. Number three: Pay off all your debts using the "ball method." Number four: Save three to six months' worth of emergency funds. Number five: Open a retirement account. Number six, and most importantly of all, don't buy your dream house; buy an income-generating property. Tomorrow is an important day. Love you all, family. Have a blessed night. Bye.
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