Dan Ives: Tesla is now more an AI company than a car company

요약 보기

테슬라는 자동차 회사라기보다 AI·로보택시·옵티머스 중심의 물리적 AI 기업으로 평가되며, 로보택시 도시 확대와 마진·CapEx(테라팹) 발표가 이번 실적발표의 핵심 체크포인트. Ives는 분기 실적 후 3~6개월 내 주가 크게 상회 전망, 목표가 600달러 제시. Talkington은 단기 하락 추세로 420~450달러 저항을 언급하며 장기 강세지만 시간이 더 걸린다고 봄, 5월 만기 420 콜 매도 포지션 보유. 또한 SpaceX IPO 후 1년 내 테슬라-SpaceX 합병 가능성 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. For more, let's bring in Wedbush's Dan Ives along with CNBC contributor Requisite Capital's Brin Talkington. Um Dan, we'll start with you. You agree investors do they care about these numbers at all? Do they care about earnings or is today more about energy storage or autonomous driving or AI chips or robotics?

02. Look, you care because ultimately you need to see stabilization of demand. I think they've seen that in spots. You look China, Europe, I mean that is important in terms of the core story. But the reality going forward, this is an AI company. It's about autonomous, it's about robo taxis. When you start to see the city ramp to my Houston, Dallas, when you see another five come on, you know, ultimately what is volume production look like when you talk about from a time perspective, cyber cabs, Optimus.

03. Look, to get the incremental trillion dollars evaluation, trillion and a half, it's going to be in AI. It's going to be really what I view, this is much more of an AI company. Disruptive tech than a car company. Um Brin, you say that the report today will be a credibility test for a company in transition which speaks to those themes as well.

04. What do you what do you need to see in terms of checking the box for that credibility test? I think well and Phil and Dan obviously set it up. We want to hear about margins first of all. Are margins going to be sub 17, 18 is great, sub 17 probably gets a pinch. We want to hear about CapEx. Is CapEx for cars or is CapEx, which we haven't talked about yet, for the Tera fab facility, which is going to be very exciting.

05. And so I think where this company's in transition is that it's clearly not just a car company. This car this this is an AI company. This is a physical AI company. Um with Optimus, with cyber cab. And I think that so many investors talk about, you know, the other OEMs getting the Nvidia chips that can self drive.

06. The reality is that just gives them the software. Tesla has the millions and millions and billions of miles driven. So so to me we're looking for multiple things, but you want to have metrics of success. I think most people are going to focus on Optimus margins and robo taxis from a from a from a earnings call perspective.

07. Dan, your $600 price target implies more than 50% upside for the stock. It's down 13% this year. What do you think really turns it around and and gives it that bolster to get to that $600 price? Yeah, look, for physical AI, the two best physical AI plays in the market today it's Nvidia and Tesla. But it's really right now the path to actually start to see the ramp to the second half of the year.

08. This is a very important conference call for Musk to outline realistically. I mean, Phil always says, you know, with a grain of salt, what it's going to look like in terms of production. What should we actually see in terms of cities on the road. That is extremely important. I mean, if you look, it's been slower than expected, but I think that's also been carefully in because the last thing they want to do is ultimately have some issue.

09. So you're seeing city by city them ramping. And then it comes down to over the next year you're owning this for the autonomous robotics piece. And they need to prove and show what the timeline is there as well as a stabilization in demand that you're also starting to see in terms on delivery. Is it cities on the road or do you think it's more about the network?

10. Is it one car in Houston, one car in Dallas or do you need to see more of a broader rollout at this point in time? to see a broader rollout, but cities are important because ultimately that is the start of what's going to be the network where you're going to have 30, 40, 50 cities. In my opinion, they're going to own 80% of the autonomous market in the world.

11. But as Brin talked about, it does all start with rolling it out, showing the physical AI play. It's been underperformer this year, but I believe we sit here three, six months now is actually significantly outperform. And Brin, you you think the stock has a ceiling of about 450 per share. I believe you sold your calls at what was it, 420 per share, um which is a nice Elon Musk number.

12. Over what time frame do you think that ceiling exists and do you agree with Dan here that, you know, in a month's time we could start to see some real traction and and what that would mean for the stock? If we see real traction, the stock will be well above 420. I think it's going to take longer. Elon and his team do really hard things, right?

13. And so that's where technically I'm very bullish on the stock long term, but just technically the stock is in a downtrend and so I think, you know, 400, by the way, is also resistance, but I sold my May they'll expire, you know, May May like May 21st at 420. I don't think they get called away. I think it's going to be a few more quarters.

14. But this this company has so much call premium, so I'm I'm more than happy just to be very patient, but sell calls on my positions that I own and collect really nice premium along the way. Yeah, I mean, it look, it's great thoughts there. I would also just say when you think about SpaceX, you know, coming in June in terms of the IPO, it's our view too in the next year Tesla eventually merges with SpaceX.

15. And this is just an important dynamic as it plays out. I think that's sort of part of the golden goose for Musk as investors start to play this broader trend.