저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 AI 확산, 미국 에너지 독립, 기업이익 증가(S&P 분기 EPS +$10, 연간 $40, 20배 멀티플 시 800p 상승여력)를 근거로 미국 증시를 여전히 강세로 봄. 2026년 이후 수년간 생애 최대급 주식 상승장 가능성 제시. 다만 6~10월 사이 대형 IPO 소화, 새 Fed 의장(Warsh) 정책 테스트, 중간선거 계절성으로 조정(약세장처럼 느껴질 수 있는 하락) 가능성 언급, 10월 이후 강한 랠리 전망. 비트코인은 현재 부진하나 네트워크 사용량 기반으로 장기 상승 견해 유지, 이더리움은 토큰화 확산 수혜 기대.
다듬은 글
Joining us now Tom Lee head of research at Fundstrat and chief investment officer of Fundstrat Capital as well as a CNBC contributor. Tom welcome. I don't know if if you heard me talking. I don't need notes to talk about you cuz I you're on a lot and I remember what you say and it just it to sort of set the stage for for what we're going to talk about.
In the past you've made some some calls that that people should never make like it's going to be a good inflation number on Friday. I'm S&P is going to be up you know 8% this week and a lot of times it was born out and you've got a reputation for being fearless that way. The most recent thing that you did which came through and it doesn't really show it that great on that chart right there but for the year you were bullish and we were going along quite nicely till the war and and I remember it was almost a mini liberation day sell-off not quite as bad but pretty steep and you said it's already done and by the end of this month we're going to be significantly higher and it was right in the midst of things hitting the fan.
Not only did that happen we we took off in April just like you said and we've continued in May. So I mean you could take a complete victory lap and we've got so many people that come on here that have no idea what the market's going to do near term or long term and it's just contrasting you know what you do so well from time to time.
You can't do it forever though Tom. You're going to be wrong one of these days but you were right again this time. Yeah well yeah thank you Joe. I know it's been a tough market for folks. I mean I'm not surprised you know we were kind of expecting 2026 to be a year where turbulence could happen and people would see head fakes.
But there's still some really powerful tailwinds for America. You know one is of course the AI story Um, now we're learning about the energy independence, right? America can deal with high oil because we're not going to have a shortage of it. Um, and then there's further tailwinds coming cuz as AI moves downstream, it's really benefiting American businesses.
I think that's why S&P earnings came in for the just the first quarter $10 higher. Um, that's $40 for the year, and if you just put a 20 multiple, that adds 800 points to the S&P. So, I I think there's a lot of grounding for why stocks are able to recover. Um, so yeah, so it's but you know, again, I I think we still might have challenges between now and December.
So, I I think everyone still needs to be vigilant, but generally bullish. What did you say about the next two or two and a half years being some of the best market activity that we've we've ever seen? Do you still feel that way? And it wasn't that was not on this show. You said it somewhere else. But what what what is your uh forecast for the next two years?
And what's it based on? Well, I think a a couple things are coming together, Joe, um, that are going to really support a few things that may only happen like once in our lifetime. One is I think this the US economic growth rate is actually starting to step up. Um, you know, in other words, we could grow at 4% and for a, you know, a mature largest economy in the world to start to accelerate growth, that that's pretty, um, astounding.
Um, the second is the US is one of the biggest exporters of the most important tool in the next 10-15 years, which is AI products. And that means we are a net essentially exporter of a high-value product. And there's so much capital, I think, misallocated today because so much of it is held in private alternatives, but it's going to move into the public market.
So, I do think that plus the demographic tailwind of millennials and Gen Z uh adding to the workforce, but then also beginning to inherit generational wealth. I think that is going to set up for after 2026, perhaps you know, like you know, over the next 2 years, some of the biggest gains of the stock market in our lifetime.
We just had a a board. So, you think well, we hit 7,700 near term, and then there's a a a pullback, and then after the midterms, we we are in the Is it coincident with the midterms, the pullback, and then we had higher afterwards? Is that Is that correct what you think that's Yeah, I mean, this is um our best guess.
You know, I think June markets can still build on the gains, just not at the rate that May did, and I think it is money moving downstream. So, there's going to be software rallying and beneficiaries of AI. But, between, let's say, June and October, we do have to digest potentially three major IPOs coming, and the market will try to understand Kevin Warsh's new sort of model for inflation, but I think the market always tests the new Fed.
And then we have that normal seasonality around midterms. And so, I I think we could have a drawdown that'll feel like a bear market. And as you know, that eight February to April wasn't was just a 9% decline, but it felt like a crash. And so, I think markets are going to really struggle if we start to have a drawdown.
And then, of course, from October, I think that's when a strong a very strong rally starts. Andrew Wontner, I was going to I was going to say how bad you've been on crypto, but but I I don't know if that's where you were going to go. different place. And we could we could do that, too. But, I was going to ask him about uh Mark Cuban.
I don't know if you saw Mark Cuban uh said that he's now dumped or sold all of his Bitcoin uh given that he don't no longer believes it's acting as a hedge uh against inflation uh or anything else argues gold is proven to be a a a better a better bet and and that Bitcoin is not acted the way it should if it's supposed to be digital gold.
What say you? Well, um you know, on the one hand, I think Mark is right. Crypto's been disappointing because crypto should move with you know, equity markets and it should be rallying with software. Software's really started to rally big and crypto hasn't moved. Um so, I think there are what what I call quote rage quitting people selling here as if something is wrong.
I mean, one, I think that's what always happens at the end of crypto winter. You know, if someone asked me, is the thesis for Bitcoin or Ethereum broken? You know, it's absolutely not because one, the more work we do and we're hearing it from founders like Palantir, Bitcoin and Ethereum are really the future of money because mass and computer or computing energy, however Elon puts it, really are what scares and you're going to need to control agent systems and as age AI systems evolve, right?
We're now talking about using commerce and operating websites, you need decentralized identity and verification. That's really what crypto does. And we know Wall Street wants to go towards tokenization. It's a vast improvement in efficiency of the of actually how money moves and it's an innovation. Well, that only happens on Bitcoin and Ethereum and other smart contracts.
So, the future isn't changed, but the spotlight today is of course on semis, memory, starting on software, but as as people focus downstream into the future, that's really I think when the bid comes for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Cuz you when you talk about stocks, it's it was so easy for you. You got you did it.
$10 * 4, that's you know, 40 dog, put a multiple on it, it's 800 points. Why do you even try with with Bitcoin or Ethereum? What What's your your comparable analysis to be able to come up with anything to make predictions about Bitcoin or Ethereum? There's There's nothing that you can base it on, Tom, except maybe uh psychology or sentiment or something.
Yeah, um well, there's Yeah, actually uh market sentiment is plays a huge role cuz it's sort of essentially risk premium, but there are two uh proven ways to value um crypto. One, of course, is just network usage because wallets and activity per wallet still explain like even now 87% of the rise of Bitcoin.
So, as long as more people use it and they're transacting it, the value of Bitcoin should go up. It's a network effect. And the second is the umbrella value of gold. You know, gold at when it hits 5,000 if Bitcoin had the same network value as gold and gold is not as scarce as Bitcoin, that would put Bitcoin at around 2 million.
So, to me I think there's still a two ways to look at the value and and of course for Ethereum it's been shown for every dollar of tokenized assets, you know, tokenized dollars or others it's created $1 value for for ETH the coin. So, if you believe Wall Street's going to tokenize, Ethereum's price should go up a lot.
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