저자: Zerodha · 외국인
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이 영상은 인도 Nifty와 Bank Nifty의 2026년 11월 6일 금요일 장을 분석하며 내일 시장 전망을 다룹니다. 진행자는 상승 랠리 끝에 이브닝 스타 패턴이 형성될 수 있다고 보고, 주봉과 월봉은 강세이지만 랠리가 과도하게 늘어나 있어 조정 가능성을 언급합니다. 미국 나스닥의 약세와 금 숏 관점도 함께 거론됩니다. 옵션 체인은 PCR이 깊은 OTM 풋에 의해 왜곡되어 전체적으로 중립에 가깝다고 해석합니다. FII는 약간 강세, Pro는 중립, Client는 약세로 제시되었고, 선물 쪽 Pro 순매수 규모도 언급됩니다. 갭 메우기와 200일 이동평균선이 겹치는 약 24,000 부근 재테스트 가능성이 주요 관찰 포인트로 제시됩니다. 진행자는 롱을 피하고 베어 콜 스프레드 등 단기 전술적 숏 접근을 언급하지만, 발언 중 확신이 낮음을 여러 차례 밝혔습니다. 디왈리 연휴 무후라트 거래의 얇은 거래량 위험도 지적됩니다. 이는 개인적 견해이며 투자 권유가 아니므로 본인의 판단과 리스크 관리가 필요합니다.
다듬은 글
Hello and welcome to Caligra Market, our daily program on Nifty and Bank Nifty analysis. Uh without further ado, let's get started. So let me just zoom out. Too many crisscross lines have come in by now. Oh no, it's just becoming worse. Let me delete this and this obviously because it is broken down.
So not this. It's actually this. So let's see what this is. Uh I'll just one second. Sorry. I'll just uh come All right, let's get started. Ronnie is saying, "Short the gold by no, you know, our usual fortitude. NASDAQ cooked." Yeah, I do see that, dude. I See, I tell you what, right? I had some money in my US broking account actually loaded PSQ.
Our man go Singh if he's watching. I remember on Friday evening we got uh into that account and we looked at PSQ and then we thought yeah no balls let's not do it. Uh but yeah but uh yeah all the Indian brokers are also see Indian users used to give exit only to Indian FIS but thanks to all the brokers in India who are now uh offering American stocks to Indian investors we are also going to give exit to US FIS.
Oh god, that's such a horrible thing to say, but that's what is happening right now in front of us. NASDAQ gave Oh god, this is so bad. Look at this. Everything is just Hello. Anyway, I bought uh TLTV, DTLA, whatever you call it. Today, I'm going to SIP into all this. Um yeah forward it says tomorrow gap up a,000 points by subl okay I want to have whatever you are having so let's see what has what where all of this leaves us today I'm going to delete this for a second right um but the big headline is today we formed there is a series of up moves which broke everything and it culminated in a morning star sorry evening star see I can say it's an evening star much more confidently if the body was very small if the body was red etc but the green body I don't think I want to call it an evening star yet so yesterday we had connected this trend line but it broke on the open itself and now we have whatever we have right now right Um, bank nifty also is in that you know earlier we mentioned some fari we are seeing that far the now uh but let me not draw trend lines chuma out of my you know where I draw out of uh both indexes are forming both indexes gap and formed bearish sorry bullish marosu This is the headline on weekly candle.
I really wish I could say this is a confirmation to a piercing but this is something else dude. This is not confirmation to piercing. This is like some this is the biggest weekly candle we have seen ever in nifty. uh maybe 700 to this is also 200 points. So yeah, this is a big candle. Let's just say this is a big candle, right?
It's a gigantic candle we are seeing. So um yeah, so we have this huge candle, weekly candle, I can't call it a confirmation because this has gone way beyond that scale. Uh and monthly candle on dude this is crazy. This is like I have no words to describe these because these are not the kind of usual you know candlestick patterns you see but for whatever reason we are where we are.
So uh weekly monthly candles both were go but um the rally is stretched and there has to be a pullback if not uh if not something and US markets are bleeding. I mean I'm not basing my analysis so I'll in in the interest of full disclosures I shorted at every half a percent up move since the open today.
Uh but I don't know why US has gone down so much to be honest. Like I have no idea. Now let's look at option J. Option chain. Yeah. This is not a market in which we can look at option chain. Option will obviously say everything is awesome. But it is not saying everything is awesome because this is not what I would describe as a very heavily bullish option chain.
Wow, that is crazy. Option chain is actually evenly poised. It's a different story that PCR is a lot more that's because these puts right these old puts are coming into picture. So you should you should neglect this overall PCR because market has moved so much and all these ultra these are all like meaningless puts now right 23 500 and whereas in these levels that OI was not formed.
So overall PCR does not have any meaning. Now um the option chain is neutral and one uh 0.8 atm 1.4 4 overall but that is coming from deep OTM puts so best to not factor in due to the big move as amazing as it may seem this is a neutral option chain I know PCR 1.4 people will say key boss what are you talking about 1.4 4 is bullish.
But in this case, no. Simply because a lot of puts written have no relevance and higher calls were not written because the strike was reached today at 3:30. Right? Before that, no. Why would anybody even think of such a far away call, right? Um Total pump, bro. This is crazy. This is rigging. If this is not rigging, I don't know what is rigging.
Like, this is textbook rigging. Right now, we have Dude, I can't believe this. But I'll tell you what, whoever spotted this gravestone dogee is the mother of all traders, father of all traders, father of all charts, father of all analysis, everything. But this gravestone doi formed here was the greatest signal of all times.
If you shorted a PSQ, longed PSQ rather, which is inverse ETF with this pie. So gold is looking tricky. But anyway, so um I can't believe today's action. This is so mental. I can't I can't believe after whatever circus happened today, we are preparing for a gap down tomorrow. That is just outstandingly mental.
Like now let's look at participant option data. Where is that? Um this is interesting, right? So you would assume today will be some mega action day, but this is not. FII slightly bullish. I mean bullish but not like overtly bullish or anything. Pro is neutral. Client is bearish. Fi bullish. Pro neutral and client bearish on daily oi change but not a big change today.
Now let's look at future boss proper. Yeah. If I bought 7,000 8,000 crores and 15,000 crores. If I bought nearly 8,000 crores. If I bought nearly 15, can somebody please tell me if there was block deal today of any sort? Because 15,000 seems like a very very very big number. Bunch. Yes, this is the pump we were waiting for.
It came 2 3 weeks late unfortunately. Did I do SIP puts daily? No, I'll be very honest. 3 days back I put they I bought puts 22 2018 December next year yesterday I bought puts today I said key one life I'll go down with this ship uh you know I'll stand on the burning deck etc etc and I did whatever I did uh okay so what is the verdict see the verdict is not about what today's scandal is the verdict is more like what will tomorrow's candle look like if tomorrow's candle is is a down candle then today's candle becomes an evening star and that is the problem in both indexes actually and that is a reversal signal on daily here I don't have the balls to say short and all year like I I I I'm very honest right see I want to say something but I don't have the balls because you know like at some point it's also thora about uh I don't want to feel responsible in case somebody burned their hands but uh see I am shorting but those are shorts which give me 12 months from now to cash out right it also kind of saves me from all sorts of nonsensical volatility etc but I'll be very very surprised if it does not pull back from here at least some kind of meaningful pullback the question is what kind of pullback we are thinking I won't go long for some time this is it um market will pull back this gap can be filled This could be the first stop.
Gap is also 200 DMA by the way. So um won't be surprised if we revisit 24,000 which is the gap fill and the 200 DMA. But the question is if it goes back to 24,000 where does that leave us? Because if that happens then the texture of this candle changes. It is no longer but I don't want to call this over yet.
I'll tell you what is bothering me. What is bothering me is that we had a gap to fill which is around 25,000. Maybe it will never fill, right? Who knows? But this is very telling. So maybe today was the pump. Today mutual fund fi everybody bought with other people's money and now they are going to screw everybody is my sense.
This morning I was doing RR which is not risk reversal about the fact that see I woke up this morning screwed at 8681 Mary you know so I exited this at the confluence of these two and then I tried called our man Gav and cried to him saying dude I don't have the balls I don't know how to hold a shot when it is working I just exited here and I was feeling sick and today I again I'm very happy I but I think that's just market um I don't know what will happen to crude now because uh this seems like a support I still think in the long run we might see crude down although all the analysts on uh all the technical boys are saying 140 crude is a possibility but I don't but oh this snow forming in here.
So, see, I think it'll pull back. Please don't go long at this level. Even if you really want to go long um because you think the rally is going to continue, probably there's a better level for that. This is too stretched. We might tumble. Um staying away from longs. Um maybe a tactical shorting opportunity with bare call spreads for next expiry.
So I'm not saying for the uh but if tomorrow market closes strong despite US negative maybe we will so tomorrow if we close strong boss uh strong possibility we will continue rallying because then it's a market which is ignoring bad news. rally to continue. So, tomorrow highly likely to be a gap down and sell day.
If it is a gap down and pullback, expect rally to continue. best to so if I were you, I would uh if it's not a huge gap down, I'll uh sell the open with the bare call spread. And if it is going against me, I'll get out. But if it is going in favor of me all the way till Friday's close, then there's something which is coming on weekend.
They are going to do something on the weekend. Is it an evening star? It is possibly a uh an evening star. Yeah, this is my problem. See, if you look at October, right, um they sold a lot and they've almost bought back the same thing. But what we don't realize is all the selling in October happened, right?
It was very nice price stability, but this happened very very quickly. So I have some question marks on that right. Um but yeah it could be a bump. Who knows? Uh also yeah sorry Udit's Udit's tip is the most important tip. See it's Diwali Monday will be very um thin volumes. Sorry the Diwali Maharat trading might be very thin volumes.
Anything can happen. So maybe it's not a good idea to short even for that weekend because um yeah maybe tomorrow tactical intraday short if it's not a big uh tomorrow high and sell day actually I I I'll just uh intraday because I don't want to do this uh next expiry because it is mohorat trading and thin volumes and whatn not but I have a feeling there is something wrong here but we have to wait and watch.
See there is a very high probability that we'll retest 20 200 DMA and this gap. The question is is that it or will we continue? This is a question which does not have a clear answer for me yet. So we'll wait and watch and see. But uh there is something wrong. I don't know what went wrong that immediately after the Democrats winning market had to fall off a cliff and usually you know that right after midterm the market has a tendency to correct like I don't know 10 12% 10 to 15%.
So because of all of this it's become a little tricky right I I never asked anybody to short uh in the last 3 days even now I don't really have the balls to say short because somebody has short covered violently right we don't know what is behind that but if we see a proper reversal signal it might be worth it to play that reversal signal but as of now there is no reversal signal but if tomorrow we see market closing below today's uh uh uh candle Then um basically the definition of uh uh morning evening star definition.
Yeah. But ideally it should close well into the previous candle. So let's see. Oh, it should actually close at least till 23800 for a proper evening star. I don't think that is going to happen. Evening star ideally has to close at least till the uh yeah third candle gaps down or or opens below the middle candle and closes deep into the body of the first candle.
This is very very difficult. So I don't think the evening star will happen because to close into the body we need a 23800 year. That seems far-fetched by any stretch of imagination. That means we'll have a 3% down move tomorrow. Yeah. No, I don't think that's going to happen just because SNP is down.
But we'll see. Right. But I think there is a pullback to 24,000. So even if you're planning to go long, maybe not a good idea um to go long into a falling knife. It might stabilize at 23900. It might stabilize here. It might fill the gap. Maybe it will go down even lower to the prudent thing to do is short and see how long it goes and maybe get out at 24,000.
U if you get a meaningful entry for a short. So I'll add that also. a good price. But if tomorrow market closes strong despite Yeah, this is my read. So tomorrow if I'm getting a decent entry to short, I'll short as an intraday move. But if tomorrow it's pulling back and closing strong boss, forget it.
next week, next to next week, everything is rally continue. But I think tomorrow is highly likely to to be a gap down and sell day. If it is a gap down and pullback, then you have to expect the rally to continue, right? Um So yeah, that is our analysis for today. We'll see you again tomorrow. Thank you so much for joining and as usual, please take care and keep your capital safe. Bye.
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