저자: NDTV Profit · 외국인
요약 보기
디왈리를 맞아 진행된 'Market Masters' 대담으로, 세 명의 패널이 2027년 인도 증시 전망을 논의했다. 패널들은 최근 2년간 횡보한 시장 분위기가 바뀌고 있다고 보았다. 근거로는 2분기 연속 탄탄한 실적, 이번 분기 Nifty 기업 80%가 발표한 실적에서 나온 22% 이익 성장률 전망, 그리고 유가 안정 시 내년 시장이 좋을 수 있다는 기대가 제시됐다. IT 섹터에 대해서는 AI 도입으로 8~15%의 신규 매출이 발생하고 있으며, 대형주 대비 미드캡 IT 기업에 기회가 있다는 의견이 나왔다. 수출 측면에서는 루피 약세, 유럽+1 전략, 중국 위안화 대비 인도 제품의 경쟁력 등이 거론됐다. 자동차 부품, 단조·주조, EMS, 에어컨, 섬유, 제약, CDMO 등 제조업 전반에 기회가 있다는 주장도 나왔다. 반면 운임 급등(컨테이너 운임 6~10배 상승)은 주요 부담으로 지적됐다. 거시 측면에서는 유가가 경제와 주식시장 간 괴리의 핵심 원인으로 꼽혔고, 지난 20개월간 외국인의 500억 달러 순매도와 AI 트레이드 반전 가능성도 언급됐다. 소비주 저평가 및 Z세대·밀레니얼 소비 트렌드 추종, 장기 자본이득세(LTCG) 인하 필요성도 논의됐다. 이는 패널 개인의 견해이며 투자 권유가 아니다.
다듬은 글
Welcome to a very special Diwali. episode. This one is called Diwali Masters and it's a conversation we do every year in the run-up to the new samwat. Now here's the thought. Diwali for all of us is a mix of fun and of course work as well as we keep a track of what's happening in the world around us and in the markets.
And what better way to do some of these conversations with those who all of you track so closely but while having a sumptuous Diwali lunch. So, welcome to this market masters episode where we have all of these great guys. N I hope you have your appetite ready for the food and all of the questions that are going to flow.
You bet the mana and you said it right because it's also good to have a a working lunch with people who you can call friends and these three gentlemen we can certainly call friends of NDV prophets. So, Pankage Buraka, Nillesha, Pankage Draal. Gent thank you so much for joining in. It's our pleasure.
Yeah, thank you so much. Any of you can start but I wonder okay or maybe pankage I'll start with you since you are to my right how is the mood because it may have seemed that it was going to be very sar a week ago and suddenly it seems like a different world over the last five seven days can we hope for that to continue
I would think so uh mood to begin with has been a bit somber because it's been last two years it's been two years now that markets have been flattish and more importantly now five year nifty returns are just about 10%. So that really uh meaning significantly below the longerterm averages. But I think at margin things are turning around.
Uh two or three things uh three things that make me feel particular particularly optimistic is one I think what we're really seeing is underlying economy is fairly resilient. Uh it was visible in high frequency indicators for the last uh 6 8 months but now we have a backto-back second quarter where earnings are holding on and are showing pretty good results.
This quarter so far 80% of nifty companies have declared results and uh probably this is the quarter where seeing the highest earnings growth after a gap of 10 quarters at 22%. The last time we saw 21% earnings growth in nifty was in December 23 quarter. So one economy is holding well earnings are coming back.
More importantly I think the challenge from India's perspective is macro and which is to do with oil. Hopefully now with uh midterm elections out of the way we in next few weeks or months we do get a some sort of a you know uh resolution out of this whole Iran uh process and oil corrects and I think if that happens then Indian markets next year should be a pretty good year unlike the last two years.
Yeah this somewhat is going to be exciting by the way while you were giving that answer the appetizers have started and it's it's looking quite interesting. So uh we we'll keep this open and free flowing since we're on the appetizer course of this lunch. Let's get a teaser from Pankage Trial in in your view and because US elections is top of mind.
Uh do you now have an appetite for say IT stocks more than ever before? So I think uh I have maintained this consistently over the last uh 12 months when the uh market was looking at zero terminal growth that the business will not go away. There could be some changes every IT company needs to do but u AI needs to get implemented at large and scale.
All these IT companies will have a revenue and look at this uh this quarter the result of the IT companies most of them have AI as a domain coming in and ranging from 8 to 15%. Revenue has started to come in that's true and most of them declared inline and few of them declared better than expected results and there was technically huge short positions created in that sector.
So you saw that in October the entire nifty gain was supported by IT sector which was up 17 18%. So I'm just of the view that there will be few winners in the IT sector especially in the midcap area where they can grow faster. Large caps I completely agree that it will be a singledigit growth. They will take time for them to come back.
Uh but it's not completely out for the first time after many quarters net hiring has been positive by the IT companies. are you by the top seven companies. The question is do you have an appetite to buy? Absolutely. Selectively we have been increasing our exposure for the last 2 3 months to IT sector uh especially the ones which can grow faster in this environment as well
and these are some of the midcap IT companies which they have shown resilience again for almost uh almost what 24 quarters some of the IT companies have grown in mid- teens which is in this environment very good I mean uh you know and NR is gesturing to If you don't ask Pangage Muraka about it, what are you even doing?
But the guy who infores the longest. Let's let's wet everyone's appetite. By the way, in case you can get a shot of our place is so pretty. This garnishes on all of the starters. Uh gentlemen, please continue eating as well. But on it, should we talk about it? Because let's first talk [clears throat] about the elections.
Are you enjoying all the memes around it more than the results more than anything else? See I don't think um there'll be any significant impact because of the elections on the outlook for IT sector. Okay. I think what are IT guys or IT companies do is something which is very routine, very mundane. Uh it's something which is more around application and maintenance.
So I don't think any of these kind of events really impact the demand outlook. For the last decade or so on a best case basis they've been growing in single digits. I don't think that's going to change in any significant way even over the next five or 10 years. So to that extent I would still think it's going to be business as usual for our uh Indian IT services companies.
I think the biggest tailwind that they have is basically a depreciated currency or a stronger dollar and they earn their revenues in dollars. So to that extent in rupee terms optically their earnings growth is going to look good. Two is their hiring pace has come off. So to that extent the costs do not go up proportionately.
Third if they start to use AI agents themselves for coding that itself could mean relatively lower costs. So I think these are the three things going for them but I don't expect them to kind of you know grow their business in any significant way. Okay. Yeah. In in which case follow-ups and pank can I start with you?
um one is IT services but two because of a this change that we've seen in the US elections do exporting companies world over and from India have a different next 24 months considering that the policies and the way they are passed might be different in the US for the next 24 months than what they have been in the last 24 months
to be honest with you N it's hard to predict that person completely agree but which tomorrow today. But uh let me give you uh the ground level uh feedback. Okay, let's do that. Sure. Uh whichever export companies we are meeting not for today for the last 5 6 months when the tariff issue was settled down.
I have not seen such optimism in the last four five years from exporters. Uh-huh. You speak to textile companies and stock prices are reflecting that and when you enter into the conference calls they say our order book is booked for the next 12 to 18 months we don't have supply we don't have capacity to supply and that's not only from us for the rest of the world as well when you speak to autoang companies forging company casting companies they see they say that the kind of demand we are seeing because Europe plus one is working out beautifully well Um and a large part of these manufacturing resides in Europe
and they are shutting down because of energy cost succession issues and so and so forth and and they are saying that the next 3 5 10 years they're willing to align with you provided you can offer them that capacity and that scale up. uh in my view two things have happened. one uh Chinese yuan is appreciated about 15 16% against rupee and globally the trades are 4 5% margin trades right such a large currency movement definitely attracts uh a lot of countries which were not uh let me give you an example I was meeting one of the pipe PVC manufacturers the largest in the India country he says that if I don't scale up my exports 5x in the next 5 years, I'll be disappointed.
Inverse inquiries are coming from their end saying that why don't you supply because you are far more competitive than some of the Chinese guys. When did we hear that? Right? So I think that export will surprise you significantly. The only challenge which most exporters are facing today is freight rates.
Container rates have gone up 6x to 10x in the last 6 to 8 months post the war started. A container to US is now $11,000 which used to be $2.5 $3,000 to Middle East it's about $67,000. That's the only challenge and supply chain demand I don't think that's an issue. So if you want to bet for the next four, five years, many of these export oriented companies and sectors will surprise you on the upside barring that caveat that you know what Mr.
Trump will do tomorrow. We don't know we don't know but the environment and everybody is looking for an alternate with China. You second that n I'll come to you on that and exporting themes. So is it IT and textiles or are there others out there in the frey as well? If you second that by the way. No.
So I'd probably think the the manufacturing side of exports. Yes. Uh is more interesting than the services side of exports. Okay. I think on the services side you do have limitations and things of that kind. But I think on the exports side of of products I think the potential is quite phenomenal. You just look at a simple case and to something to what pankage alluded to just look at Maruti okay and look at Maruti's revenues and look at where the growth is happening exports for Maruti are growing at 30 35%.
50%. Okay there you go 50%. Okay, the most recent quarter. Okay, now just imagine if you are a vendor to Maruti. Okay, what it means for you and obviously when they export they're going to kind of source from vendors who are trusted who have been part of their local supply chain for years or decades and now they want to make you a part of the global supply chain.
So forging Hawaii, AC suppliers, Subaru, whoever the whole Absolutely. So that is one. Two is the free trade agreements, right? You've got one with UK, the EU one will get operationalized and then there are other countries with whom with whom you are doing free trade agreements or bilateral trade agreements.
These are opening up doors to trillion dollar economies. If you look at the combined might of that and if we finally are able to seal with the US as well, I think that is going to be the biggest of tailwinds which India's manufacturing sector would have got over the last 5 10 15 years. The third is if you look at all policy initiatives these are all aimed to kind of make manufacturing more conducive or the ease of doing business.
I mean like for example most recently like say the GST change which happened which means the powers to arrest have been withdrawn. I'm just saying is somebody who's out there doing a manufacturing unit for them this is a huge sigh of relief. What it just does is it just unleashes a bit of those animal spirits saying now it's going to be fun to do business.
I think these are some of the changes which are really happening. So I clearly believe what happened with IT services in the '90s and that lasted for the next 20 30 years what we saw with some of our Asian neighbors be Japan, South Korea, Taiwan or Malaysia all of them. It's quite possible that India is going to see something similar on the manufacturing side over the next 5 10 15 20 years.
You wanted to come in on that just to what he's saying. You meet any AC company today. They were all cing to the domestic market. Now China this summer has sold 17 million ACS in Europe. That's the size of the domestic market in India. And you need a different specification in Europe because Elnino and other summers things are going up.
You speak to any of the top guys in AC Europe will become a very large market once they have the approvals. So think about a domestic market equivalent opportunity coming your way from a export perspective. Think about the EMS guys. EMS guys are saying today we are only doing substitution you know value addition for Indian manufacturing.
Now export is coming up in a big way and that's the largest of the Dixons of the world, the ambers of the world they are talking about it already. The next five years along with domestic export will be a large opportunity. So I'm just saying that in areas where we are competitive I think we have to look it with a a positive lens in my view and there's a huge opportunity coming across manufacturing in automobile automobile parts uh forging casting EMS air conditioning textiles pharma CDMO you look at it
so I'm just giving you some sense and and this will uh you know look into growth for many companies if they tightly executed well. Uh I've said this one of the classical template for investing into India is when India gets a macroeconomic shock. The last time we got that shock was in 2013 happened in midst of taper tantrum when currency went for a toss, oil price went higher and everything else happened.
Not that I one wished for but we've been through a similar macroeconomic crisis in the last 12 or 18 months which you wouldn't count co in the same category of a macro. Not really because co was a very short-term phenomena just for a two or 3 months and the economy started recovering and everything else but this time around the impact on India essentially the oil importing countries the biggest two importers India and China is far more insul meaning a much bigger economy with higher reserves and all of that so with the 50% tariff that India had and then this whole oil prices did create a crisis of a sort RBI had to step in with FCN and all of But I think now India's macros are stabilizing.
Having said that, we this is my view. I think two things need to turn or change uh for Indian stock markets to do well. The econom there's a disconnect between the economy and stock markets. Let put this way. The economy is doing fine, right? The economy is still growing at 7%. Start of this year I thought we'll this year we'll end up with 6.5 or 6.6% growth.
Now we have all of seeing that probably we'll end up with 7.2 or 7.3 this year. So the disconnect is primarily I think two things have to give in. One clearly oil price I have to correct because if you double oil prices then your $130 billion oil import bill goes to $220 bill incremental $100 billion is a big number for India.
Are you convinced oil prices will come down? Let's just do a quick round round this table. Are you convinced that oil prices will come down further very quickly now that the midterms are I mean in a couple of days we'll know the final but that the midterms are the new level is 80 to 90 in the mind 80 to 90 to for in your to your mind.
Yeah I think so I mean oil has no business to stay elevated. Yeah. Okay. I mean I think if we talk about decarbonization electrification a huge shift towards um you know electric vehicles and all of that. If that's the case, then fundamentally the demand for oil is not going to grow at a significant pace.
So the only time oil will do well is when there are supply challenges. And that's true for any commodity. See, no matter what you say, electric vehicles, therefore more copper, more copper wires, all of that. Prices of copper spike up only when a mine in Chile shuts down. Yeah. Not otherwise. Otherwise, it's the same argument.
So I clearly believe commodities are more driven by supply shocks rather than kind of demand spikes. So I think in the case of foil, it's more pronounced that there's really no demand spike happening if at all. It's just this one traffic jam. Absolutely. That's it. You've just described it really well that there is a traffic jam.
Period. That's it. Just like you have in BKC. The problem is the roadblocks are not moving right on one side the Arabians on one side one side. Yeah. So I think one that really changes picture for India from a macroeconomic point of view. The second thing from a stock market point of view is in the last 20 months.
Uh foreigners have sold $50 billion out of secondary market foreigners. Yeah. So we haven't seen this is the highest selling we've seen from foreigners ever in India right from ' 9293 when they started investing into this country $50 billion being taken out. But is it us or is it them? You know so when you know people break up they say it's not you it's me.
So in this case is that is that what's happening? I think you always uh you know you have a middle part. So both both both will have to make some progress or move forward kind of a thing. So one the economy is doing well. We've done our part of it at some point of time all price have to give in otherwise it starts hurting global economy.
Uh so I think it will give in. And the third thing I think is the big thing is and I think that's already playing out a bit more gradually is this whole reversal of this AI trade because India is being labeled as anti-AI trade from a investment perspective and I think that is already playing out kind of thing.
So once this uh you know once that growth peaks out meaning just to put in context I think I've said this earlier outside of Samsung and SKHenix Korea's economic growth is 2%. So I'm saying outside of those two companies Korea's GDP growth is 2%. So when it reverses it could when it reverses when that growth peaks out there's nothing else left there.
There's no growth story out there in Korea. I must say that I know we talking about oil. There isn't too much oil in the food. So you guys are not eating anything. If that is worrying you wondering is this is this not on your no I know I know you follow a strict diet but I think the conversation itself is so interesting
and come on this is this is the time when you indulge in fact N you've given me a a great idea since the festive season is also one of indulgence if there was a one stock or sector or investment decision that each of our guests had to indulge in What should it be? You can also tell me about what your favorite Diwali sweet is.
That's also an indulgence. But in terms of an investment decision, you've always thought I should try this but then you've stopped yourself because it's not a disciplined thing to do. What would it be? My personal view. Yeah. I think given the trends that we seeing in the economy, I think Indian consumers will surprise next year.
We just need oil price to because when I look at from a slightly broader perspective or slightly when I zoom out and look at from a broader lens, I find consumer stocks very cheap. And I see a very resilient consumer. No, but by indulgence, I mean it could be anything. It could Bitcoin do you certainly want to put money there?
Do you want to put a lot of money in anthropic? Anything. It could be anything. It's an indulgence. So you know I think 2027 my personal take uh despite meaning uh whatever we've had in 2 years from 2027 is going to be about Indian equities. Indian equities. Okay. So that's indulgence. It's not an indulgence.
Yeah. And I okay let me put other I think we make a new all-time high uh you know next year. Okay. Sorry but no but Indian equities these constructive markets at large I think uh from a sectoral perspective I second uh pankage that uh consumer stocks after a long time which you wanted to buy but the valuations were so prohibitive I think are looking extremely attractive
and you don't mean just FMCG or no not not FMCG consumer discretionary over discussion pura pura pura and trend change and I think uh after a long time the sequencing has changed B2B have become far more expensive and I have always believed that you never create wealth chasing a popular theme you create wealth to own themes which can become popular later so I think consumer as a sector has been ignored for five six years now uh valuations were prohibitive many of them have come to mid20s uh and by consumer I mean discretionary uh home building products everything included in that uh I I think that could be the sector which can surprise you next year.
Nlesh your indulgence for the markets for the next somewhat. So my bet would be that look what Genz's and millennials are doing. Okay. Uh what they what they are buying. If they are chilling then well that's an opportunity right? If they are chilling which means they're spending more on entertainment.
They're spending more on food. They're spending more on cuisines. They are indulging right? So you just go and do what they're doing. I mean that that's like hundreds of millions of young Indians out there. They're spending differently, transacting differently, saving differently, investing differently, buying things which are very different.
So I would think that just track what they are doing and look at the kind of outperformers in the last 1 2 3 years. If you have just tracked that if they are buying electric scooters, you've got to buy the best electric scooter company in India. If they are spending more on beauty and personal care, if largely benna is happening, women are spending more on beauty and personal care, you have to be buying Nika and Hunasa.
If the young Indian is very comfortable not going to the next door kirana store but sitting and ordering on a quickcom app and you have to just buy that and the bull market there has not even started because if you look at the bunch of those stocks most of those stocks have not even crossed their listing highs of 21 and 22
and that's not that's not reflective of the valuations of those stocks. It depends on what's your outlook. I mean, I remember people like us in the '90s initially missed out on IT services because we thought Infosys was just too expensive and Infosys created a wealth creation journey for the next decade.
We always thought HDFC Bank past time price to book State Bank of India one time book. But we never looked at HDFC Bank as a growth stock saying the young Indians back then were opening bank accounts with HDFC Bank. They were part with technology. they were powering banking experience right today that's what many of these companies are doing that using technology they're delivering better products better services better solutions to hundreds and millions of young Indians globally if you really look at it what are those guys looking at India we think they're looking at AI trade but when it comes to India they're looking at India's consumer basket or the consumer base that's what they're doing and you have to just look at so I think the businesses of yesterday will do well maybe but I think it is this whole bunch of companies which have built strong digital platforms using technology if you look at it just look at it very simplistically the biggest QCOM company's quarterly run rate is now higher than the most respected retailer in India
now I'm saying with due respect to that retailer okay it's like it's taken them 20 25 years to get here these guys have done it in 3 years and a year two years ago you could have complained that they don't make money now you can't even complain there so what is the next level of complaint valuations which complain
so I just feel the future of India are the genzies and the millennials just track them follow them do what they do and I think you'll be fine he's given us meme worthy stuff actually all three of them are the internet is going to pick this up completely. Yeah. Okay. No, but so what is the final thing?
We have come to the end of the show, but you mentioned what Sorry, right? I think I am of the belief that right till today because MSI weight is 10 11% being underweight has not hurt the FIS right look at last month Brazil down 16 Indonesia down 16 Korea down 10 India up 2%. If this continues for two three more months that time you have absorbed $60 billion of selling but billion buying market
many people may think it's optimistic but this is what markets are all about. People will chase momentum when it hurts them. Today it's not hurting 3% of the world market cap. How does it matter? doesn't matter but once it starts to perform with earnings growth being the backbone I think you will chase momentum chasing momentum
yeah so you need LTCG cuts to make that happen whatever it supports the sentiment right earnings is one supporting oil could be another coming down AI trade reversing is another global markets which have done well unwinding itself could be another in that order where does LTCG cut stand in that order
everything will be a mixture of that only only LTCG but won't excite the FIS just to come and invest in the market. You think it's overdone the clamor for LTCG cuss or is it important? Uh I think it's a fair demand or a fair ask because the point is we have a uh hundred billion funding gap as a country for the last 30 years the business model of this country is we run 2% current account deficit.
So every year on our cash flows we are short on a current account we are short by about 80 to$100 billion and we we've been using investment portfolio money whether it's FBI or FDI coming into the private equity money coming into the uh uh to fund this or fund our whatever consumption cap goods import oil imports and everything else.
Now uh FBI have been selling and private equity has been taking money out. So that has really exposed that wedge. It's very important until we structurally fix this hundred billion gap in our cash flows, annual cash flows, we need to remain attractive investment destination and you have to do what you have to do to maintain or get that status.
You just can't lose your primacy or your mojo as an investment destination. Yes. Yes. To indulgences to good luck to fortune and of course all of this superb commentary coming in on this fantastic lunch. I think the real eating starts after the cameras go off. But thank you so much to all of you for joining us. Thank you. Thank you.
댓글 0