저자: Zerodha · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 증시 NIFTY 옵션 만기를 앞둔 시장 분석 영상이다. 오늘 FII 순매수 규모가 크지 않았고 미드캡·스몰캡이 반등했다고 설명한다. 미국 증시는 S&P 500과 나스닥이 각각 1% 상승했고, 한국 10년물 국채 추세선 반전과 유가 하락도 언급된다. NIFTY는 23,600 부근의 저항과 갭을 주요 레벨로 짚으며, 롱 포지션 일부 이익 실현과 만기일 세타 감쇠 리스크를 논의한다. 발표자는 여러 차례 확신 없는 추측을 말하며 방향성은 뚜렷하지 않다. 내일 미국 중간선거 이후 변동성 가능성도 언급된다. 본 요약은 원문 내용을 정리한 것이며 투자 권유가 아니다.
다듬은 글
data Interestingly, today's FI data is restrained . It seems like no one bet on anything today. Look at this, it's very I mean the volumes are not very large on both sides. It's like 7 thousand net, um 3 thousand net, 3 thousand net. It's interesting that no one has big bets today. There are minor changes in all segments.
Which inevitably brings us to futures. Okay, 1000 crore FIs bought futures worth over 1000 crore. FIs bought over Rs 3,000 crore in cash. And now the most important part, the verdict. Yes, it is very difficult. So, the mid cap has rebounded, and we talked about this before. Small cap rebounded, we also talked about this earlier.
The S&P 500 rose 1% today. The Nasdaq also rose 1% today. I have a strong feeling that this is the beginning of another upswing. USD INR fell today. The Indian 10-year bond is extremely interesting because it has made a complete reversal on this trend line connecting all previous highs. Um, what I'd really like to know is, does this signal a rate cut ?
Does this signal that if it turns around here, yes? We'll go back to 630, 620. And if that breaks, we'll probably reach...I don't know what could lead to that. But of course, it will be a very profound event if and when it happens. So I still don't know. Look, what I'm trying to say is, um, if it goes this way, inflation will win.
If it goes the other way, the recession will win . I don't know whether we will be in a world where human pain is inflation, or in a world where human pain is recession. Of course, if there is a recession, real estate prices will fall, and all the developers in India are politicians, so they will ask banks to finance their sales by providing loans at low interest rates, and the taxpayers will pay the bill, because state-owned banks are essentially our money.
So they will offer us a lower return on our deposits. They will, um, um use the RBI repo window, i.e. taxpayers' money. I'm not talking about one specific government, but about any government over the last 70 years. They will simulate home sales, because obviously home sales are important to the political class of former feudal lords, right ?
Um, so if we see a recession or a slowdown or deflation, especially housing problems, that's what's going to happen. If we see prolonged inflation, stagflation, etc., and a loss of confidence in India's ability to pay its debts , which is also possible if we overdo social security spending. First of all, I'm a big fan of social benefits, because, frankly, if they weren't there, we'd be just one crowd, you know, just one gate of an apartment complex, separating us from the people who would pull us out of our apartments.
So, you know, as creepy as it sounds, I will support all social programs, bro. I'm not an idiot for not supporting social programs. Isn't that right ? This is what it's called in other countries —social security. But social security doesn't make beneficiaries secure, it makes others secure. But in any case, this is a very important thing.
And look, I think like this: okay, if I get, well, 7.5% on government bonds, I'll agree, right? But that's just me. The dollar index is stable. Silver and gold have recovered, of course, because something that falls so much has to bounce back at least a little. The yield on US government bonds fell below 5%—to 4.90.
So at 5.30 it was just an incredible buy, obviously. You see , US 20, everything is going up today: TLT, EDV, DTL. And another major headline— oil prices are falling. People will think it's Iran, the Houthis, etc. I say it was all predicted because, well, because if you look at this graph, right ? Sorry.
Yes. You see this, right? This was quite expected because on Friday we had a "shooting star" at the top of the trend line, from which we saw numerous bounces, and here we are. Now, if there is another move down tomorrow , and another move up or down the day after tomorrow , that will be very interesting to watch.
But our main question is not this. Our main question is what to do with Nifty? Truth? And this is not a trivial question at all, because Look, here's what you should pay attention to . Okay, I think I have a ready schedule here. Yes. Oh no, I had it on TradingView. It does n't matter. Anyway, we've restored the schedule here.
Look, I'm a little skeptical about going long here because there could be a small pullback before the price goes back up. But the first level I will watch is 23,600. The second level I will watch, of course, is this trend line. Now, I can draw this trend line differently, because if I were to draw it through this peak, this peak, this peak, and so on.
Then the goal would be completely different, right? And since this is an anomalous candle, of course it's more convenient for me to connect it like this, right? So, if that's the case, then we have the potential to grow even to 24,000. Right? You see, but the question is, how are you going to play this?
It's one thing to say that there is potential for this mark. Another thing is to win back this growth from this level. Another problem is that we have a gap at 23,600. We also have a previous local low here. You see this level, right? This is the place where the gap formed here. This point was the gap we broke last time, right?
He was tested twice. So I will be very, very, very skeptical about a further rise to 23,600. But if this level is broken, then even then we have 23. I will find it very hard to believe if Nifty goes above 24,000. If it breaks the 24,000 level, then of course, um, if it breaks, right? Then we'll do this.
Truth? I don't know if this is a historic high or something in between. Maybe 24,800. We don't know, right? 25,140, there was a gap here that was never tested. Many opportunities open up when we cross this, but we are still a long way from that. But that's my feeling , right? Here, at the end of the day, we managed to make a little money.
That's not bad money. When did we open a long position? On Thursday or something ? And we have about 2% profit, which is an excellent result at 500-600 points. And if you were more aggressive than I was when I said not to open short positions , some decided not to short, and some said: "okay, that means buying." So these people could earn 800 points , so I think at some point it would be good to say, "Okay, I've earned enough." I'll take a short break.
And then we'll see what happens here, right? This is very important because there may be some selling pressure at this level . And who knows, uh, let me just draw it back. Where did all the marks go? Why did I? Why did I do this? Why did I delete this? I wasn't going to delete this, but I deleted it anyway.
Done. Is this even my TradingView? This is my TradingView, right? Yes. You see, I would like to capture at least some of the profit here, because there is a clear gap here. There is a minimum of swing here. Too many factors and it's too big a leap, right? It just went up, like one-way, all green candles by almost 1,100 points.
So maybe at some point, oh, sorry, sorry. I'm showing the wrong thing, oh my god, I'm sorry. Today I was demonstrating a window instead of a tab. Yes ? Sorry, sorry, sorry. Sorry, the screen display is frozen. Sorry. I'm so sorry. Thank you all. Uh, what should I look at? The thing is, today I accidentally shared a window instead of a screen.
But sorry, we're back. My opinion, look, uh, this is the bottom that was formed. It went up without, it went down without. And then it went from 22,300 to 23,600 . Not a bad move, especially if you did it through call spreads or put spreads. I would say that about 60-70% of the profit has already been received.
It might be a good idea to exit this and take a profit, because I'd be very surprised if I didn't see some kind of decline. So, there are a few things that make me hesitate. First, of course, at the 23,500+ level, we will see resistance, which is a gap. Secondly, tomorrow the theory of the last day of theta decay will come into effect.
So, if we open with an upward gap tomorrow, I expect the Nifty to correct. I know, this is a pretty specific prediction. But right now I don't want to hold long positions. I still think there is a possibility of a target as high as 23,600+, and if it breaks that, maybe 23,800-900, etc. But I would expect a real mega-bullish move only after this trend line breaks , right?
One of these trend lines. Uh, maybe, but then the trend line is only 400 points away from where we are now. So maybe because of the volatility, because there 's a possibility of a return to 23,160 or so, I don't want to take any risks here. I'll take a profit here, take a break, see how the market develops, and then open a second trade.
What club? Uh, it's not necessary to open a deal at all, right? Uh, so , uh, taking a profit now is a wise move. There is a gap in Nifty around 23,500. So, excuse me, I... 23,600 So, we can see a fall there. Uh -huh. In addition, the last day of writing put options makes tomorrow's index vulnerable to a downward movement, which activates stop-losses on the puts.
Therefore, tomorrow I will withdraw the funds and will do nothing until a new trading idea appears. At least that's what I'll do, right? The government is considering abolishing capital gains tax for foreign investors. Yes, but uh... I won't say anything. Everything is great. Sorry, I just forgot. What am I even thinking about?
In principle, it's not a bad idea to think about SIPs in the distant future, right? Uh, of course, you'll have to reconsider this if the trend line breaks. But, uh, yes. I definitely wouldn't want to do anything stupid right now. Uh, actually, let's look at one more thing— Reliance, because that was spectacular.
Dude, this is crazy. Yes, the main news is that Reliance is above the trend line, and quite sharply . So, there's a little part of me that's asking, " Boss, if the trendline is holding, support is moving up, and everything looks like the market is back on track, then why are you talking about a crash ?" That's a very good question, but I'll believe it when I see confirmation of the breakout.
Even for Reliance, I would probably say we will see 1300 plus a little more, but anything above that I would be skeptical. Actually, I have some Reliance shares. I'll get out of them tomorrow , no questions asked. And then I just thank God and the keyboard. Thanks for the unsuccessful entry into Reliance shares .
Uh-huh. Pritesh, there is no indication yet that this is a real rally. This could be a trap, uh, but let's not jump to conclusions, okay? Let's see how the market unfolds. Who knows, maybe tomorrow you will make a good exit, and then the market will fall, and there will be a sense of consolidation again.
But look, that's the thing, right? Uh-huh. Let me take a look at the weekly chart of Nifty. Look, this is a bullish piercing candle. If next week's candle is positive, it will be confirmation. So, at least one more week of growth is likely. You know what I mean , right? A bullish piercing candle followed by another week of growth.
So I don't really want to exit a long position now or start opening short positions, simply because if this week's candle closes above the previous week's close, there should be another, you know, uh, positive week. But the catch is that tomorrow's expiration day looks so difficult, right? In the sense that this is the last day for the theta breakdown, there is resistance at 23,500 plus, all of this becomes relevant.
I'm just uncomfortable doing this. You see, if I see 23,140 or so again , then I'll buy again to see if it goes to 23,800. But I don't like the idea of buying here. If I get it at 23,150 again , maybe I'll try a call spread with RR1 to see if it goes all the way here. But this is a very scary place to add new longs, open them, or not lock in profits, right?
But I still really think this bullish breakout looks like another candle, and there should be a third candle. Let's also look at what... Yeah, that's quite a good figure, yeah. So maybe growth will continue, but maybe not tomorrow. Let's just lock in some profit and get out, and then the market will maybe give us another chance, right?
Yes, that's our analysis for today. See you tomorrow. Thank you very much for joining. And, oh, yeah, sorry. There are still midterm elections in the US ahead, so be careful. Because tomorrow is the US midterm elections, and there could be volatility after them. So yeah, that's our analysis for today.
See you tomorrow. Thank you so much for participating, and as always, please take care and stay safe.
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