저자: Stas Talks Stocks · 외국인
요약 보기
금요일 반등은 추세 전환이 아닌 '죽은 고양이 반등'이라는 것이 발표자의 판단입니다. 어제 나스닥 100(큐)은 7% 폭락해 5~6개월 만의 최저치를 찍었고, 공포지수 VIX는 70% 급등했습니다. 오늘 큐는 2.5% 올랐고 VIX는 15% 가량 떨어졌습니다. 발표자는 큐가 700~715 구간을 확실히 돌파하기 전까지 추격 매수하지 않겠다고 밝혔습니다. 현금을 보유한 채 주말을 맞고, 시장이 더 빠지면 추가 매수를 고려하겠다는 입장입니다. 한편 10월 고용보고서는 예상을 크게 웃돌았습니다. 비농업 고용은 16만 5천 명 증가해 예상치 5만 9천 명을 뛰어넘었고, 실업률은 예상 4.2%보다 낮은 4.1%를 기록했습니다. 평균 시급도 전월 대비 0.4%, 연율 3.1% 올라 예상을 웃돌았습니다. 다만 고용이 강하면 연준의 금리 인하 기대가 약해져 주식시장에 부담이 될 수 있다는 점도 언급됩니다. 산업별로는 전문·사업 서비스(7만 명), 헬스케어(4만 2천 명), 운송·창고업(2만 5천 명)에서 늘었고, 레저·접객업(1만 3천 명 감소) 등은 줄었습니다.
다듬은 글
OK. Friday, guys. We somehow managed to survive until the end of the week. I don't know how we managed to do it. Happy Friday, guys. The week was long. So, we need to sort out what's happening in the market today, where we're actually recovering from yesterday's complete disaster when Q's fell 7%. How much did the VIX rise?
By 70%. It was just madness. Now Q's are up 2.5%. The VIX fell by about 15%. We got a pretty good, frankly, very good labor market report for October, which we need to talk about in this video. And we'll analyze the graphs and my thoughts on the matter. Do I buy on this rise or wait? We have a lot to discuss, guys.
So like , subscribe, and, of course, take a sip of coffee. To your health. Thank you to everyone who joined. Well, let's go. It doesn't take a genius to say that this is just a relief rally, a "dead cat bounce," or whatever they call it. This is normal market activity after yesterday when Q's fell into the abyss again.
We fell 7% and at some point, it seems, we broke the July lows. I mean, this Nasdaq 100 ETF hit a five- to six-month low yesterday . So the fact that we're seeing this relief rally today is not surprising, you know ? This is not surprising at all. And at the moment, for Q's to really start breaking out, we need to break through the 700-715 level , and we are still very far from that.
So, obviously, everyone understands that this is "a dead cat bounce." No one calls this a breakthrough. Apparently, no one buys on this traffic. Who is buying now anyway? I don't know. Maybe you can buy some here. But I personally am waiting. I'm not buying anything right now. I bought some stocks yesterday.
Those of you who are on my Patreon know. We publish all our steps there. I bought some Nvidia. Bought some Google. Bought some more SanDisk yesterday when the fear was at its peak. And now that we're seeing this relief, we're still in a downtrend on Q's, on Spy, everywhere, right? And for me, buying more now doesn't make sense, you know?
Maybe later, if the markets get worse , hey, it will be time to buy more. But I'm going into the weekend with a good amount of cash and waiting to see if the market sells off even more next week. And, guys, given the kind of price dynamics that we're seeing, I wouldn't be surprised if that happened, you know?
So do I buy during this bounce? Answering the introductory question, no, I'm not buying. I'm just sitting on cash. I also hold my investments. I didn't sell anything. I just bought a little more of my most promising assets, just like yesterday. And I just leave everything as is for the weekend. And if things get worse, well, great.
I'll buy some more. And if the market rebounds even more aggressively on Monday, let's say Q's hit 680 or we see a big move, I probably won't buy on that move anyway, you know? I will still wait for full confirmation for Q's to be above 700. That is where the big breakout will happen if we actually get one.
And the labor market report today was incredible. I'm sure you've all seen it. We added 165,000 jobs in October , which, guys, is 100,000 more than expected, 100,000 more than expected. And the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, although how much was predicted? 4.2%. So we crushed the Dow Jones forecasts.
Um, I think it was 59,000 jobs. Dow Jones forecast, yes, 59,000 jobs. And the unemployment rate was expected to be 4.2 percent. It dropped to 4.1 percent, right? Which is actually very good news for the economy as a whole. The fact that, you know, many people say, " Oh, we're heading into a recession, inflation is destroying everyone, the conflict in Iran, etc., etc." Now that we have good data on the labor market, it puts these concerns on the back burner for a while.
Maybe this isn't the best thing for the Federal Reserve, right? And what they're going to do with interest rates, but at the end of the day, my friend, it's not all about the stock market and rates. This is good for the economy as a whole. The fact that we have added a significant number of jobs and unemployment has decreased.
Of course, this may not be the best scenario for stocks. Stocks want rates to fall, and rates themselves should remain stable, not rise aggressively. So now the Fed is in an even more difficult position, but it's not just about the market, the stock market. It's not just about interest rates. That's important, but the fact that we created a lot of jobs—that's good for the economy, you know?
So, we see here on the graph that we have added a significant number of jobs compared to previous months. And that's good. The unemployment rate is gradually decreasing, which is a positive thing. About a year ago, it reached four and a half percent. So over the last 12 months we have seen a slow decline.
This is a pretty good sign. Let's take a look at where these jobs came from . It seems that the increase in the number of employees on payrolls also turned out to be better than expected. Average hourly wages rose 0.4 percent on the month and 3.1 percent on an annualized basis, compared with forecasts of 0.3 and 2.9 percent.
Very good. And the average workweek remained unchanged—34.4 hours. Let's see where these jobs come from. Professional and business services saw a growth of 70,000 jobs, making this sector the leader. Here's the schedule, guys. Meanwhile, healthcare was next with 42,000 jobs. Other industries also showed notable growth, including transportation and warehousing—25,000, and manufacturing—19,000.
We see that financial services added 7,000, the public sector—6,000, and retail—6,000, but we lost jobs in some sectors. Leisure and hospitality lost 13,000 jobs, wholesale trade lost 9,000, construction lost 3,000 , information technology lost 1,000, and mining lost 1,000. So, this report was pretty good, especially compared to last month, where the numbers were very weak.
I wonder what the revised numbers are for last month. Do we have them here? I don't see them here. In any case, this is good for the economy, but perhaps not so good for further Fed action and for the stock market in general. Although the stock market is up today because of how much it fell yesterday.
Again, this has little to do with the labor market. Perhaps it has something to do with the labor market. The fact that the economy doesn't look terrible. The market probably likes it a little bit , but it's really due to market mechanisms, we get a sharp rebound, relief, or whatever you want to call it.
So again, I'm not buying into this surge. Ultimately, if this leads to , say, we having a growth day , that just looks silly. Um, it's only 9:50 today as I record this video. So we have a whole day ahead of us. Let's say if Q's go up 3-4% today, which is quite possible by mid-day or late in the day, I might add more hedges.
Um, you know, I can add another hedge, right? I had those put-debit spreads. You probably remember this. I mentioned this. Um, I recorded a profit on them. So if the market starts to grow aggressively — although today's +2%, I think, is not aggressive yet, especially when SPY is growing by what? 0.9%.
Russell rose a quarter of a percent. The Dow Jones actually fell a quarter of a percent. So, this isn't an aggressive move at all, right? Maybe a little for Q's, right? But if we see even more aggressive movement in the afternoon, closer to the middle or close, I think that might be a good time to hedge a little bit, especially if you don't have any hedges yet.
Um, so I'm keeping a close eye on the Q's on the hourly timeframe. As we can see, if the price gets closer to 670-680 today, um, I might buy some more put-debit spreads. I'll keep you posted, especially if you're subscribed to Patreon. I post all my deals and moves there. Take a look at these stocks showing a recovery today.
Coherence grew by 13%. Lam Research is back above 200. This stock is up about 11%. Sandisk is getting close to 890, which I bought a little bit more of yesterday, by the way . Sandisk grew by 10-11%. Nvidia is up 6%, I also bought them yesterday. It's currently at 193. I think I was buying at 185. Hmm, SpaceX is moving a bit .
These stocks are up about 6%. SK Hynix is now up about 5 %. Yesterday, Tesla was destroyed. Um, now it's going up about 3-4 percent. Not bad for Tesla. Alphabet, have you been paying attention to the price dynamics? This stock is holding steady after yesterday's collapse. I mean, it did n't even fall during yesterday's crash because it sagged a lot after the reporting .
This is a good sign that Alphabet may be forming a bottom or close to it. Hmm, so this stock is holding up pretty well amidst all this, so I bought it yesterday. I also bought some right after the report at a price of 2.90. You probably remember this. And I'm holding on tight. This is a very long term position.
And guys, the VIX is still at 24 . We will end with this. I'm not saying things are going to get much worse, but the fact that the VIX is only at 24 right now is probably too low for this level of fear in the market, especially in these tech stocks. So that makes me think that in the short term, there could be more of a drop or more fear before things get better, right?
I don't want to be the bearer of bad news, but the fact that the VIX only reached 28 yesterday looks a bit disappointing from that perspective , you know? For me to act really aggressively , call the bottom and start buying a bunch of stocks, I need to see the VIX at 35-40. I'm not saying for sure that this will happen within a week or two, but if it did, I would be much more certain that we are close to the bottom.
The situation is either calming down a bit, or about to calm down, or it will get significantly worse with such a high VIX. Who knows, right? I mean, gay . But you know, he's only at level 24 right now . Keep this in mind. When we get to 35-40, if we do, that's when, historically and statistically speaking, buying a lot of stocks makes sense.
That's logical, isn't it? Especially growth stocks at that moment. So guys, this is what's happening today. I don't want to get too carried away in this video. You know, I'll do another video, probably a few more videos today. So subscribe , hit the "follow" button, join Patreon if you want to be part of the community, see my deals and all that .
It's in the comments, the link is also below. And with that in mind, guys, bye . Happy Friday. We survived this week. Let's see if we can finish here a little bit , you know, intact. But yeah, see you all in the next video.
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