저자: Stas Talks Stocks · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 선거철을 앞두고 시장이 반등하는 흐름을 짚으며, 주요 지수와 차트 흐름을 분석합니다. 발표자에 따르면 다우를 제외한 주요 지수가 상승했고, 유가 하락과 VIX 하락이 함께 나타났습니다. 발표자는 S&P500과 나스닥 100(QQQ)에서 매수세가 추세선 부근에 들어오고 있으며, 7월 저점이 중요한 지지선이라고 설명합니다. 또한 중간선거와 중동 분쟁 관련 합의 여부가 시장, 특히 많이 하락한 기술주와 AI 관련주에 영향을 줄 수 있다고 언급합니다. 이번 주에는 선거 결과와 금요일 노동시장 보고서가 주목할 이벤트로 제시됩니다. 실적 발표 종목으로는 쇼피파이와 화이자가 다뤄집니다. 쇼피파이는 조정 EPS가 예상을 웃돌았지만 GMV 성장률과 매출이 예상에 못 미치면서 주가가 8% 이상 하락했고, 장중에는 더 크게 밀렸다고 합니다. 발표자는 실적 발표 전 두 배 가까이 오른 상태였던 점을 주가 하락의 배경으로 설명합니다. 화이자는 조정 EPS와 매출이 모두 예상을 넘었고, 코로나 제품 매출은 감소했지만 기타 제품 성장으로 2026년 매출 및 EPS 전망을 상향했다고 전합니다. AMD와 SMCI는 장 마감 후 실적 발표가 예정되어 있으며, 발표자는 AMD의 매출 컨센서스와 SMCI의 차트 패턴을 주요 관찰 포인트로 제시합니다. 영상은 해당 종목들이 투자 권유가 아니라 발표자의 관찰과 분석을 담고 있다는 점을 전제로 이해할 필요가 있습니다.
다듬은 글
Well, let's go. It suits me. I like what I see. Stocks look pretty good during elections. Three of the four major indices are now rising, oil is falling , VIX is falling, and metals are also going down. So we need to break down the charts, my thoughts, what I plan to buy, a few earnings reports that came out this morning , and what to expect after the close of trading .
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This is very important, friends. As always, thank you all for watching, and let's dive into the video. So, every index except the Dow is now in the "green zone," and the Dow hasn't fallen too much. It fell just a quarter of a percent, while the Spy rose more than half a percent, and the Russell and Nasdaq each gained 1%, as Bitcoin also moved up, adding more than 1.2 %.
And you see here on Spy: buyers have become active at the bottom of the channel on the 4-hour chart, and that's good. We haven't reached a full breakthrough yet, but we are seeing some pressure from buyers here. And on Q's we see the same thing, don't we? We are seeing buyers entering at this trendline and we are currently holding a higher low, although we have not yet fully broken out to the upside.
And we hold the lows of late July, which is critically important support for the bulls. I've said it before and I'll say it again: if Q's break the July lows, it will be a bad sign. And this is what I'm paying attention to in the short term. Of course, we are following the midterm elections and the situation in the Middle East with the conflict; any signs of a deal or nearing one will have a significant impact on the market, especially stocks that have been hit hard.
I mean, guys, Q's, tech companies, AI stocks—these types of stocks have gone down so dramatically. As soon as we get closer to a deal, they will go up just as sharply. That's how they work, right? And of course, if oil continues to fall in price, they could also rise sharply, which would coincide to some extent with the deal, so we'll see if we can make it .
It would be nice if we could make a deal, right? But that's a big "if." Brent crude is now down over 1.4%, WTI is down 0.6% after taking a pretty serious hit yesterday. Same with Brent. And now silver and gold are falling in price. The VIX is now at 20 points, down about 4% on the day. Overall, a pretty good "green" day , but by no means an explosive growth.
It's actually just a recovery day. You know, that's the market we're in right now. We have several "red" days in a row , then a day of rebound, maybe two days of recovery, and then a drop again. It was a crazy volatile market, right? So, with that in mind, we are all waiting for the election results.
Let's see how tomorrow goes. Honestly, I expect more volatility throughout this week. On Friday we have a report on the state of the labor market. A lot is happening. But with that in mind, let me show you some earnings reports. We need to sort out some stocks. After all, this is a stock market page , a stock market channel, right?
That's what we're focusing on, not the midterm elections or geopolitics, right ? So Shopify released its earnings report and the stock fell 8%, even more than 8%. And earlier today they were falling even harder. I mean, at its lowest point, the stock was worth $125, and it closed at...156. At their lowest point, they were down 20%, which is pretty bad.
It was like falling off a cliff. We have been slowly closing this gap over the past few hours since the report came out, but the key word is "slowly," and we are still down 8% from the closing price. So, Shopify reported back. Let's take a look at the main numbers. Then we'll dig a little deeper. They reported adjusted EPS for Q3 of 49 cents, above the forecast of 46 cents, on sales of 3.74 billion versus 3.747 billion.
So, a slight deviation from the revenue forecast. Mixed sales results: For Q4, they forecast 4.81 to 4.88 billion versus 4.75 billion. Pretty good forecast. Revenue is expected to grow by a small 30 percent year-over-year for Q4. Not bad. Is there anything else about these key indicators? GMV in the third quarter increased by 29% to $119 billion.
Free cash flow was, uh, yeah, $816 million. Margin 22% versus 18 % expected. That's pretty good. And if we look deeper at these numbers, why did Wall Street start selling stocks? Because merchants sold $119.1 billion through Shopify, as we mentioned, that's a 29.5% increase, and that's below the forecast.
You know, we didn't mention the forecast. It's $120.1 billion, or it was $120.1 billion, and the growth rate slowed down from last quarter, and again they missed the revenue target. Last quarter, their GMV grew by, it seems, about 31.5%, and with a forward earnings estimate of 61 or 65, Shopify needed better forecasts for the holiday season.
Such a reality to give investors more reason to buy these likely expensive stocks, which had already risen quite aggressively before the report. As you can see, if I open this 4- hour chart, I see that it has been moving up and to the right since almost May . These stocks have doubled since May on the eve of the report.
The stock hit $95 in mid-May, and about two weeks ago we hit $180 . So, they doubled before the report, were priced perfectly for the holiday quarter, but they just didn't live up to the numbers, you know? Yes, they beat EPS, overall performance is good, but the Q4 outlook is probably not as good as expected.
You know, GMV didn't meet the target, which is generally a problem for Shopify. Not necessarily in the long term, but in the short term they were overvalued. You could argue there was a lot of noise. Even with this setback, man, the schedule still looks really good. In fact, it was a healthy pullback and buyers are now entering at the trend line.
Overall a very good sign for Shopify. And a few more numbers: revenue from trading solutions was $2.91 billion, up from $ 2.15 billion last year. This is a 35% increase. Revenue from subscription solutions grew 20% to $836 million . Monthly recurring revenue is $230 million. Can you imagine a business with a monthly recurring revenue of $230 million ?
That's great, of course, but how much are you willing to pay for it? Obviously, investors are not willing to pay, or they were not willing to pay, the valuation that was there, and that is why the shares are falling now. Part of the reason. Um, this is a return to reality, so to speak. Gross profit was 1.78 billion, compared to 1.39 billion last year.
Shopify's operating income was $568 million, up from $343 million last year. This is an increase of 66%. So not a bad, you know, quarter for Shopify. It's just that , again, the price was calculated for perfection. That's where we were before the reports, and we also got data from Pfizer, ticker PFE.
The stock is down about a percent, not too bad, and the headline numbers for Pfizer, let's take a look. Adjusted earnings per share were 87 cents, beating expectations of 72 cents on sales of 16.58 billion versus 15.87 billion. So, they beat expectations on EPS and revenue, and if you look a little deeper into Pfizer, they were up a percentage year over year.
I can't actually find the number in my notes, but overall Pfizer's growth was excluding, you know, COVID products. Revenue increased by 7%. Their blood thinner product, it's called Eliquis or something like that. I can't pronounce it properly. I'm probably distorting it, guys, but this was an outstanding product for the quarter, if you look outside of COVID products.
Sales rose 25% to $2.52 billion , with cancer drug Padcev also helping to offset COVID sales, which are falling precipitously for obvious reasons, and they raised their forecast. Pfizer now expects $62-64 billion in revenue in 2026, up from $ 60 billion before...how much was it? Growth from $60.5 billion to $62.5 billion and from 2.95 to 3.05 cents in adjusted earnings per share, compared to $2.80 to $3.
Pretty good forecast, very good from Pfizer, and these stocks, as you can see, are growing. I mean, they're showing very good results as money temporarily moves out of AI and technology to look elsewhere. Healthcare is one of those areas, and Pfizer is one of those stocks, you know? And overall, these two COVID products, and again, it's for obvious reasons.
This is no longer 2020 or 2021. You know, their two COVID products lost $1.11 billion in sales, and total revenue fell by only $71 million. They did outperform on profit and revenue, but it's clear that these products are suffering for obvious reasons. Let me see if I can find the year-over-year decline rate.
Paxlovid made $771 million. This is 63% less than last year. And Comirnaty or Comirnaty, I don't even know. It seems like this is another one. Another one of the products that fell 29%, $339 million in revenue. So, those sales are falling, but fortunately for Pfizer, they have many different, you know, treatments for many different, you know, diseases or ailments, whatever you call it, diseases.
And you know, they do well in other categories. You know, the demand for migraine medications in the US is simply skyrocketing. Their migraine medicine is a success. Again, cancer drugs, you know, all these other treatments. So everything is fine at Pfizer . You know, the company is no longer as dependent on COVID drugs as it was a couple of years ago.
The share price was very dependent on this . And we're moving up, even with these earnings, which were, you know, maybe a little disappointing with COVID, but investors are looking through it. But even with these figures, we still look good. The stock is maintaining an upward trend. And as this narrative around AI and technology continues, I think Pfizer could potentially have even more growth opportunities.
Um, and I'm also following AMD in the OTC market, guys, which we talked about a few days ago. Today after the close of trading we have AMD. Um, we also have SMCI. And by the way , guys, hit the like button if you haven't already . Be sure to subscribe, click the "follow" button . I appreciate you all for watching, as always.
Um, so AMD, the consensus revenue forecast is now $13.1 billion. This would be about 42% more than last year. Um , and SMCI. And by the way, AMD's forecasted adjusted earnings per share are $1.95. This would be a 63% increase compared to last year. So I keep an eye on these key figures. Of course , data center revenue is, among other things, for AMD.
And although the stock is down about $170 from its all-time highs, it has been wiped out. Um, they're still in an uptrend. The schedule still looks pretty good. And if you look at SMCI, the SMCI graph is a little more bizarre, isn't it? Um, but it's not terrible. The company is struggling to hold higher lows, even as it forms lower highs.
So, many of these AI stocks are in a wedge. Um, you know , SMCI is no different here, and today after the close of trading they have their reports back, and we're paying very close attention to them. At least I am. You should too. Um, right now management's revenue forecast is about 18.5 to 19.5 billion.
Um, we see, or I see, an adjusted EPS forecast of $1.23. So pay attention to this for SMCI. And yeah, I mean, if it finally started to move away from that trend line, same with AMD on good reports after the midterm elections, hey, we could finally get some growth. But we can't be so sure in this market.
We simply cannot be confident in this market. But this is a pretty good day for the market recovery as a whole. Um, to be honest, very good. The Qs index increased by 1%. We have stocks like Nebius that are up 7%. Stocks like SanDisk are up 5%, we have Nvidia up 3%, Micron up 3%. for the market. Um, Robin Hood is moving a little bit, but a lot of these stocks are n't really making a breakthrough.
They don't really show much movement . They are just starting to see a little relief after being beaten down badly over the past few days and weeks. This is where we are now. What do you think? Stay tuned, as I said, and join Patreon if you want to stay up to date with updates on my portfolio and my deals.
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