저자: ThomasHughes · 외국인
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AMD가 실적 발표 후 급락했지만 데이터센터 성장(69%)과 클라이언트 성장(60%)이 사업을 떠받치고 있고, 현재 주가는 장기 지지선 부근이라 자본항복(capitulation) 성격으로 본다. AI 인프라 2차 확장 국면과 MI350 GPU 출시가 호재이며, 장기 매수 관점을 제시. 컨센서스 목표가는 약 16% 하향됐으나 단기적으로 한자릿수~저두자릿수 상승 여력이 있다고 봄. 3~6개월 내 다음 실적 발표에서 강세가 확인되면 애널리스트 심리가 바뀔 것이라 예상.
다듬은 글
AMD dropped off a cliff this week, but is there further to fall or is now a time to buy? Here to break down what's going on is Marketbeat analyst Thomas Hughes. Thomas, this was quite a drop for AMD this week. Yeah, it it was it was kind of surprising. Um, in fact, the downtrend over the last 6 12 months has been kind of surprising.
The company's been doing very well. Um, you called it a cliff. I would call this more of a capitulation. I mean, it wasn't quite a significant drop, but it's at the end of a downtrend. We're right now we're at long-term lows and significant critical support levels. So, it looks kind of like a capitulation to me.
The market just kind of giving in and saying, "Hey, all of these high expectations that we had built into the AI bubble aren't really happening." And so, now it's time for the market to reassess what the reality is. And I think that reality is still bullish for the market, for the stock price, especially with it trading down at such low levels.
It is very low right now. When it comes the week of earnings, is there anything that came out at earnings that's a true concern and maybe led to some of this downturn? Not to me that was really a concern. I mean, the really the biggest issue was that data center growth, which came in at 69% was a little bit on the soft side and it's slower from the previous quarter.
I mean, that's it. Slowing growth. The DC segment grew by almost 70%. The client segment grew by almost 60%. um together they were 80% of the business. These two segments are going to underpin business for the next several years. Um the other two segments uh gaming and embedded had some weakness. Gaming could be weak for a little while longer.
That industry is have been having some problems. But the embedded market should revert to growth soon and be very strong because um AI is going to really boost um the IoT and that's where embedded products come into play. Let's talk about buy the dip opportunities. What are we seeing right now as far as traders getting in on this stock?
Are people already flocking to buy this dip or are some people a little hesitant thinking it's going to dip even lower yet? Well, it looks to me like people were buying because that first initial price plunge was met by buyers. The stock opened much lower, but it closed off the low of the day with incredibly high volume, near record high volume for the day.
So, that tells me people were definitely buying the stock on that day. Now, we pulled back from that closing high the last two days. Uh but the market is still above the the initial open after the earnings release. So we're showing some support at that level. We could fall a little bit lower, but again, even at these levels, there's not much further to go because we're right near this really critical long-term uh support level that aligns with a market reversal and some some critical support levels from previous years.
Yeah, Thomas, AMD was already on the bargain buy list even before this post earnings drop this week. Make sure to check out the video we did just a couple weeks ago on three AI bargain buys after the Deep Seek announcement. A lot of those picks are still relevant today, including AMD. Do you think that's playing a role in what's happening with AMD stock this week?
Um, I mean it it might be, but I think the the buzz over the Deep Seek thing blew over pretty fast. um that was certainly an advancement in AI, but it was more in the application of software and the development of models than it was in the infrastructure. And AMD is still very advanced in the infrastructure and central to that to that advancement.
They've got some some product launches coming out this year. They're going to accelerate uh the development of the AI infrastructure. Uh so I think that this is still a very good long-term play. So you're not concerned about anyone thinking chip stocks are going to continue to get hit? I mean, I really don't think so.
Um, what we're seeing now is is like a normalization after the AI bubble. This was the first wave of the bubble. That was the Nvidia bubble. Um, AMD didn't really participate in the boom the way that Nvidia did. You can see that in the share price. But now we're gearing up for that second wave of infrastructure buildout and AMD is going to be a central player with that.
It's got its MI 350 GPUs coming out later on this year. They're accelerating that launch. These GPUs are specifically built for AI. They're already seeing pretty high demand for the product. Um, Lisa Sue has been pretty well known, at least to me, as being cautious with her guidance. So, I think even the guidance that she gave for the year is cautious.
I think there's just many reasons to think that the business is going to be very strong throughout the year and may even accelerate in the end into the end of the year. Yeah. What are analysts saying about the rest of the year for this stock? Well, so the analysts were not very impressed with their results.
Well, I see one guy has downgraded to hold, but the concern is slowing growth. The general consensus is still a moderate buy and there is some upside, but with the price targets being reduced, that does pose a headwind for the market, at least in the near term. How much of a reduction have we seen in the price target since the stock dropped this week?
Yes. So, the price target reductions are pretty significant. Uh, the consensus figure has fallen almost 16% just in the few days since the report was released. Um, however, um, the analysts are leading to the low end of the range, but even with that in play, they're still looking at a solid single digit to a low to moderate double digit upside for the stock.
So, there's not as big of gains to be expected this year for AMD. Do you think this is more of a longtime buy for investors? Yeah, I think it would be a long-term buy. uh you're going to want to buy it at this low and then look for the business to regain some some traction later on in the year, possibly even early in next year.
Um and in that scenario, I would expect to see analysts start uh rewarming, start raising their price targets again, and start adding some momentum to the market. You call it a long-term buy, but does it make our list? Check out this free premium report on seven stocks to buy and hold forever to see if AMD or maybe another chip maker might be on this strong buy and hold list.
You can scan the QR code or click the link in the description of this video to get that free report on marketbeat.com. I want to look at the competitive landscape a little bit for chip makers. You mentioned Nvidia already. Where does AMD stack up in the race to really be the top chip maker and provider across the globe?
Well, right. So, as far as being the top chipmaker and provider across the globe, that's probably unlikely because there are some much larger businesses. When it comes to the data center segment, which is where AI is focused right now, um AMD had about 20% of the market share ahead of the AI boom. Um it's probably lost some shares since then because Nvidia just has commanded so much of the attention and its chips were the only ones that were really available for the last year or so.
But we're expecting AMD to regain share as the years progress and possibly even take some share back from Nvidia because its GPUs are equally powerful. They have some advantages over Nvidia's chips and they're also being used to build some of the most advanced data centers. All right, so Thomas, we'll wrap up this conversation with just wanting to hear what you think about timing.
How long do you think AMD could stay in this lower range before it gets back to what it was trading at pre this week? Right. I don't think it will be too long, but that said, it could be three to six months because that's how long it will take for the next earnings reports to come out. Um, and I would expect to see in those reports to see continued persistent strength and those strengths would play a big role in potentially changing the analyst sentiment.
So for you, this is an opportunity for investors to get in now. It sure is. All right, Thomas, thank you so much for your time today. If you want to read more of Thomas's article, we'll have that link in the comments here, too. Thanks again for watching today, everyone. And as always, happy investing.
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