저자: 프린들 · 한국인
요약 보기
2022년 2월 시점 TQQQ 하락을 주장하며, 연준 기준금리 1%p 인상·대차대조표 축소·경기사이클 침체 진입이 동시에 발생하면 TQQQ가 50.44달러 위로 오르는 데 100만원이 아닌 1억원을 기부하겠다는 내기를 제안. 과거 배당주 투자 조언(2020년)과 평균회복률(40% 하락 시 66% 상승 필요) 설명도 포함. 영상은 공식 이벤트 안내 성격이 강함.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Friendly Friend. Today, the title is quite provocative, and the content might be a bit provocative as well. This week was another week of high volatility due to the risk of war, and I am now wondering when we will stop talking about volatility. In my last video, I stated that, based on the current Fidelity cycle, now is not the time to invest in TQ.
As a result, many YouTuber viewers, especially those who have invested, seemed uncomfortable. They left so many hate comments that it was quite difficult to block them. For your information, this video is not intended to say that investing in TQQ will lead to ruin, or that it is unsuitable for long-term investment; rather, it was created to argue that risk management is absolutely necessary when risks arise this year.
Since the pronunciation is a bit difficult, I will shorten it to "TQ" from now on. I am planning a small event for those who love TQ, including Blur. Even though trolls keep saying I am wrong and that happens, there are three situations where I say it will rise: First, the Fed raises the benchmark interest rate by more than 1%; second, the Fed's balance sheet reduction, which was mentioned in the recent FMC; and third, when Fidelity's business cycle enters a recessionary phase.
When I enter the market— that is, when these three situations occur simultaneously—if the price of TQ rises above $50.44 based on the closing price on Friday, February 18, 2022, I will donate 100 million won. However, I do not intend to simply donate it. Among those I love very much... I heard everything you said.
Is investing math? Since TQ has fallen nearly 40% year-to-date, even if those three things you mentioned happen, it will rise by even just $0.01. I guarantee this. I ask that everyone, including those commenting right now, participate in the 100 million won donation event I am proposing. The rules are very simple.
To repeat: when the Fed raises the benchmark interest rate by 1% and we enter a phase of a "QT" and "business cycle," if the high-beta TQ rises by even just $0.01 above the closing price of $50.44 on Friday, February 18, 2022, I will donate 100 million won in the name of the participant to a place of their choice.
However, provided I am not wrong, you must donate 100 million won to the place I desire. What are you talking about? If the Fed raises the benchmark interest rate by 1% this year, implements QT, and enters the business cycle re-station phase—in other words, if all three happen simultaneously—and TQ, which has a high beta, drops by even just $0.01 below the closing price of $50.44 on Friday, February 18, 2022, then the person who participated in the event under the name of Print must donate 100 million won to a place that wants to print.
Isn't that too advantageous for you? No, you said I was wrong. You, who love Ticket so much, said that everything I said was wrong, that TQ cannot go down any further, that poor people have to stake their lives on meager earnings, and that you have already made a tremendous amount of money through TQ.
Then why is it advantageous for me to make a wrong argument? And even if it is advantageous for me, if you made a tremendous amount of money through TK, couldn't you donate about 100 million won to a good cause? I have no intention of treating this donation event like a joke, just like Print Capital did during the Gaepo-dong crash.
Also, I plan to conduct the event up to a maximum of 5 times, limiting each time to 500 million won. I will accept applications via email until the end of March. We plan to proceed by meeting in person at the end of June to verify if you have 100 million won, depositing the funds into individual escrow accounts in the presence of a lawyer, and then donating the 100 million won once the conditions are met.
TQ has already dropped 40% year-to-date; what kind of [ __ ] is it to say it will fall further? Those who claim that uninformed retail investors might suffer because of my arguments, as well as the trolls and YouTubers who blindly believe TQ can never fall, please, for the love of God, apply quickly.
Unless you are a complete idiot, I doubt a single person would do it, but since there are surprisingly many foolish and wealthy people out there, I will only accept the first five applicants. It will probably be great YouTube material. Just apply thinking of it as an investment of 100 million won and a good deed.
And later, just make up an excuse like, "Actually, I knew all this, but I participated in the event because it is a donation for a good cause." Also, just to be on the safe side, regarding the Bloomberg consensus: if the Fed raises the benchmark interest rate by 1%, the S&P 500 consensus suggests it could fall by about 10%, and if the Fed raises it in Q2, it suggests it could fall by an additional 10%.
Of course, these Financial engineering is very often wrong. However, please check for yourself what actually happened when the Fed reduced its balance sheet in 2018. Interestingly, at that time, when the Fed had assets, the Fiddly Business Cycle was in the Ray phase. But the Financial Supervisory Commission members are all liars and are wrong every time, and you, Team Leader Iron, don't care about that, do you?
And naturally, since the DQ has dropped by about 40% relative to delinquency, even if the DQ rises significantly from now on, the base interest rate increases by 1%, and we reduce the DQ and the business cycle enters the Lease-to-Value (TQ) phase, the TQ could still be higher than $50.44. There is definitely a possibility for those participating in the event, so please make sure to apply.
You just need to send an email to [email protected] with your name, age, reason for application, where you wish to donate, and your agreement to provide personal information. It's simple, right? Then, we will accept applications until the end of March, verify if there is actually 100 million won at the end of June, create a YouTube video of this entire process in July, and once the results are available, we will create a video covering the donation process as well.
When COVID-19 broke out in 2020, all those in Korea investing in the US... later I was hooked on it. At that time, telling people not to invest in dividend stocks was almost the same as them touching TQ now. Back then, when the Fed had lowered interest rates to zero, Q was doing quantitative easing, and the leverage cycle was at its peak, I said, "Don't invest in dividend stocks when rates are low; invest in growth stocks.
Buy KK." I literally heard every curse word in the world for that. But since then, it has risen by over 100%. You should check out dividend stocks. These days, when someone says to be careful of KK, a high-beta leveraged ETF, it reminds me of 2020 when people advised against investing in dividend stocks because of zero interest rates caused by COVID.
The insults and hate comments are coming in just as strongly. The funny thing is, the more insults I get, the more I feel like I won't donate. And even if I don't get any, I am 100% certain that I won't be able to donate, so I wo n't be able to donate, and the 500 million won will just be left over.
So, as I mentioned in previous videos and comments, when the benchmark interest rate rose above 1%, QT was underway, and the stock price was taking off during the business cycle reception phase, I would put the 500 million won into TQ. I am going all-in. Among those investing in [specialties], there are many who say that even if *kekeke* drops 30%, *tq* won't get wiped out and will only drop 70%.
However, everyone, if it drops 20%, it needs to go up 25% to break even; if it drops 30%, it needs to go up 43% to break even. If it drops 40% like *tq* is right now, it needs to go up 66% to break even; if it drops 50%, it needs to go up 100% to break even. If it drops 70% as some claim, it needs to go up 333% to break even.
In the financial industry, dropping to that extent is usually described as the account being " melted." As I mentioned at the beginning of the video, I did not create this video to claim that is going to fail, nor is this an event. I am doing this with the intention that many of you should manage your portfolios wisely when a correction comes this year, so while you do n't need to take today's video too seriously, I hope you do n't take it lightly either.
Also, this is not a joke event, so if you are interested, please make sure to send an email by the end of March. Please apply, and I hope you have a happy week. Please click "Apply for Online Class" at the top right of YouTube.
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