저자: 프린들 · 한국인
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2022년 2월 기준으로 연준의 금리 인상(연내 2%p 가능성 시장 반영)과 대차대조표 축소(QT)가 동시에 올 경우 증시 급락 가능성을 경고. 미국 물가(CPI 7.5%, 근원 6%)가 높고 경기사이클 전환이 임박했다고 주장. 고베타 레버리지 ETF(TQQQ 등) 매수는 위험하다고 하며 장기 주식 매수 자제를 권고.
다듬은 글
Ugh, ah, ah, why? Language casting is terrible. Hello, this is Friendly Prin. Although I did mention the fixed clover, thank you very much for the continued enthusiastic response. Originally, the meaning of Friend TV is for my channel to acknowledge every single one of your comments and wish you a happy week, but I couldn't reply to comments in the last video for various reasons.
However, regarding the Easter egg for the 100 million won donation event promised in the Lunar New Year comments—that is, the real meaning of the 20 in the 100 million won donation event—and why the need for ventilation is high regarding the possibility of the base interest rate hike and QT Re Session crying simultaneously this year, I intend to discuss this.
Regarding the lost V event mentioned last week, when the current issues and QT Re Session arrive simultaneously, especially, he could fall compared to now. As I mentioned in the pinned comment, the meaning of such an Eve event is to prepare before danger comes and respond when danger arises. Quite a few people are reacting by asking why I am saying such diverse and obvious things, such as: if the base interest rate hike and QT all come at the same time, achieve more, give more, 5 tons, author, Nina, would there be many, Isu, come here, thesis, hard work, laughter that could drop by more than 50%, you, sound, etc.
...but actually, I don't understand what you mean by the index dropping by -50% just because this world comes. It seems like you are pretending to introduce it within the Kumyoung period, but there is absolutely no way the index will drop by -50% just because this world comes simultaneously. There were surprisingly many people who said such nonsense, asking me if I was stating the obvious.
Judging by these reactions, I believe there are quite a few people who think that the probability of this world coming simultaneously is almost zero, and that the three string-type limits this year will almost certainly not be reached. Is that correct? And fortunately, many people commented that if three dangerous things happen simultaneously, the Prints will naturally win this obvious donation event.
I am an investor g2b quite... of course not. So fortunately, I do not talk about things with a high probability of success. And fortunately, I do not want the people watching my channel to suffer damages by doing this because of me, except for certain idiots. However, regarding the Mat after the 2nd season, not a single person has applied yet, but since my probability of losing is high, I do not think a single person will apply in the future either.
Because let's assume someone applied for the commentary on this device. Putting 100 million won into the S Pro reporter's words... approximately You cannot touch 100 million for over 6 months. Let’s assume the applicant won after 6 months in this situation. That means T Duke rose even though those three things arrived.
Then, it means the applicant suffered a loss because they could not invest 100 million in the TQ quest during those 6 months. Conversely, let’s assume the Prings won after 6 months. Then the applicant has to donate 100 million of their own money in the name of Print. On top of that, since the TQ frame investment is stuck, it means the 100 million available for investment has disappeared.
It is completely the worst-case scenario. No matter what the event result is, fortunately, it is an event that does absolutely nothing for the applicant. Given this, what kind of idiot would apply? Of course, they would n't. Of course, I thought some Raple YouTubers might be able to do it, but it turned out to be Arashi.
I predict that in the comments of this video, they will probably copy exactly what I just said and leave a comment saying, "Isn't it about supporting the Grown method 5 things, etc., 2 things?" They definitely didn't know how to post anything last week. It seems like there won't be a single smart one in the future.
You used less than 9. It’s not that I can’t do it because it’s a hassle, but I’m telling you today. You absolutely don’t think you know everything about Korean 2 and 9. Then you’d look like stupid 2nd-year middle schoolers. You’re not stupid, you know? Besides the Lord, you talk too much. Now, let’s get to the main point.
There is a high probability that three things could occur simultaneously this year. You are most curious about that, aren't you? As I said in the Gojong comment, I think it is high. I will explain the reason now. To start with the 2% annual base interest rate hike, if you type "Invisting.com" into Google and hover your mouse over [Can be here], there is a headline monitor tool.
Click this. This table is an indicator based on Seomun Market data regarding how much inflammation is at interest rates, 1g at a time. While this doesn't always fit perfectly, it is an indicator that allows you to judge how much the market is likely to raise today. Let’s look at June. The probability that the Fed will raise the base interest rate by more than 1% this June is 24%.
That’s not small, is it? If you click on "Treatment," the probability of over 85.7% is a whopping 85.7%. Well, September is... There is not much to see, but it is 96%. It was 98.3% in November and 99.5% in December. The market is judging that the Fed will raise the benchmark interest rate by more than 2% at least by December.
However, there are still some people who argue that raising the weighting by more than 1% would ruin the stock market, so the Fed... ah, that is illogical. Hmm, you are right. Also, after the January FOMC meeting, Brother Powell said that he would focus on a predictable approach to Fed balance sheet reduction.
Balance sheet reduction means absorbing the dollars in the market by taking the assets the Fed has bought so far. If they had no intention of doing a balance sheet this year, they wouldn't have even mentioned it; they are bringing it up little by little because they are afraid the market will be shocked if they suddenly do a balance sheet.
In other words, they have been saying since January that a balance sheet might be made this year, so the market shouldn't be shocked. The Fed's stance was like this. So when the topic of balance sheet reduction came out, the market fell and swayed. Even then, the volatility was tremendous. As for me, it is a total of 8 times a year, 45 days.
Every time, they hold a meeting called an "Evo Emergency" where they decide on benchmarks or quotas. However, you all know what happens to the stock market when the Fed suddenly decides on quotas at an unscheduled emergency meeting. So far, the market has been completely destroyed. Do you think the Fed doesn't know this?
Therefore, if there is a possibility of a quota-difference, they must discuss it in advance in the future. They brought that up at the first FOMC meeting in January of this year. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is currently 7.5%, and the core CPI, which excludes food and oil prices—which the Fed considers most important—is 6%.
Annual inflation is 2%. They maintained this 2% for the past 10 years, but due to COVID-19, the money injected through this crazy quantitative easing has caused prices to rise more than threefold. I mentioned this before: imagine you have three cars. If the annual price hits $300, the price of a single car is $100.
If the annual price hits an additional $600 because the economy is struggling, then goods and cars together become cheap. It means prices are rising threefold to $300. That is the current situation. Therefore, even if the Fed pumps out the base interest rate, if there is no light demand in the CPI (Consumer Price Index), the Fed must implement a quota (QT) to withdraw the money injected into the market.
Second, cars rose to $300 because so much was released, but if the market's released liquidity is controlled through a quota, cars will drop back down to $100. I am compelled to bring up an interesting and famous example while recalling various situations on page 10. That is why the Fed keeps bringing it up.
And third, it seems you believe that Fidelity's business cycle this year will absolutely never enter a restation phase. However, Fidelity's debt cycle occurs every quarter. Last quarter, last quarter of 2011, Fidelity's cycle was right here. If this drops just a little, it becomes rake- to-inflation.
But looking at the first quarter of 2011, does n't it look to anyone that this cycle has already come down? As I mentioned earlier, the Consumer Price Index is currently 7.5%, and the core CPI, which excludes the two values of quality and performance that the Fed looks at closely... The index is 6%, and the annual target inflation is 2%.
Aren't prices high right now? It is three times higher than the 2% the Fed is trying so hard to maintain. Then, wouldn't anyone see this as inflation? Then, considering Fidelity's Bichon Cycle, which started mixing in last quarter, would n't prices have dropped to at least this level by the first quarter of 2021?
Ah, I’ve stated the obvious again. Then I will state something even more obvious. Everyone, the US has been bowing its 0% benchmark for almost six years. On average, a recession has never been longer than a boom. That is why I tell you never to buy stocks. Please, if you are going to invest long-term, do not buy things like desks.
I feel like I have said this obvious point a million times, but you keep asking. Your thinking is short-sighted, so please, never buy stocks. To reiterate, on average, a recession has never been longer than a boom. However, since then, the recovery has lasted for about two years. Then, to state the obvious again, since a recession has never been recorded as being longer than a boom, this cycle will last within two years.
It needs to have dropped down to this point. Also, if you look at this document created by PD Elite, it states that the Reiki period historically lasts about 6 months to a year. If the Q1 2020 cycle has already entered the 1a phase, this means the cycle could enter the B-segment recession phase within the next 6 months to a year.
Statistically speaking, it is very obvious that there is a high probability of it dropping to this point by the end of this year. Crum, do you still think the probability is small that the Fed will raise the benchmark interest rate by 1%, cut back, and bring it down to this point in the B-cycle—the three factors I mentioned in my last video?
Do you now understand why I went out of my way to hold this donation event? There is absolutely no such thing, and economic YouTube channels do not needlessly chatter about the associated risks on their own channels. To reiterate, the hidden meaning behind this EVE event is that since a major risk may arise, we should prepare before the risk arrives and respond when it does.
Furthermore, buying high-beta leveraged ETFs like TQ right now is dangerous. It is not safe just because the war is over; it is dangerous. Of course, since TQ also trends upward, I think a strategy of buying gradually with a lesson-taking approach is not bad. I have never once said, "Don't do this, you will fail," regarding this matter.
I stated that even if you have already purchased a large amount of TQ, it is fine for those who can buy more in the future to continue buying. However, since this is a dangerous time, I am telling you to make your own judgment and invest wisely. The person I am most worried about is the one who blindly goes all-in on TQ.
Recently, there has been a tendency to create a "TQ special zone"—thinking, " If it's not TQ, my life is nonexistent. What is it? What is it if I sell my house?" Even though they have no money, they are spilling it everywhere, accepting whatever they have and believing it will work out, blindly tearing it apart at night.
When it suddenly drops like a monster, members come and make advances here and there, and they attach advances to TQ YouTube saying, "You ruined it because of you." When it reaches a resistance point, they ask, "What are you doing? Isn't that just obvious talk?" and torment their families by claiming to be sick.
Chaeyoung is someone who invested saying it was dangerous until now, but as it rises like this, they are taking out loans to engage in blind, illegal activities. As you all know, regarding that side, due to news that Russia hated it, the special currency fell to $40, but then rebounded. It is an ETF with a daily fluctuation range of 20%.
The daily fluctuation is 20%. If this doesn't matter to you at all and you are n't worried about the upcoming lease, you can continue as you please. I believe there is no right answer in investing. You must make all decisions yourself and take full responsibility. However, I would like to reiterate that I hope everyone—whether you are a subscriber, a hater, or watching this video for the first time—experiences happy investing.
I hope you have a happy week ahead. For those who want to learn technical analysis from the Flute Riders and study economics in greater depth, please enter "Friend Lab" in the search bar or click "Apply for Friend Class" at the top right of YouTube.
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