저자: MarkFarfan · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 869주 보유(평단 21.91)를 바탕으로 2030년 은퇴 가능 주식 수를 계산. 연 6만 달러 생활비, 25년 인출 기준 70만 달러 필요, 연 8% 성장 가정. 시나리오별 주가(저 31.82달러/중 68.18달러/고 113달러/스타 227달러)에 따라 필요 주식 수 3,080~22,000주로 추정. 예측 자체보다 가정 기반 시뮬레이션 성격이 강함.
다듬은 글
hey there and welcome to another palantir video i currently have 869 shares at an average cost basis of 21.91 and in today's video i'm gonna break down exactly how many shares of pounds here i think it would take to retire in 2030 exclusively off of a palantir investment now i'm not normally one for price predictions and forecasts generally speaking they're just the equivalent of horoscopes for degenerate gamblers investors but after looking at my window this morning and seeing this goddamn winter storm something just broke in my brain and i realized i need to retire asap and get somewhere sunny and warm so let's take a look at a couple of scenarios for how many shares of volunteer it would take to retire in 2030 so the first step in figuring out how many pounder shares it would take to retire is to figure out how much money it would take to retire and then we can work backwards from there so i created this spreadsheet and i'll throw a link down below in the description box so that you can take a closer look and you can tell me if you think i made any mistakes with my assumptions but according to some statistics that i've seen the average monthly living expenses for a household consumer unit which is an average of 2.5 people per household is 5 000 per month approximately or sixty thousand dollars per year so i'm going to do the retirement calculation based off of these figures because i think if you can afford to retire in the u.s you can probably afford to retire anywhere else in the world but of course you can adjust these to your own personal circumstances depending on the cost of living where you are anyways 5000 us dollars per month seems like a decent amount to me you're not gonna be living a luxurious retirement but you will for sure be comfortable with that and i think you could probably get away with less if you're frugal anyways if we're going to need 60 000 per year to retire we're going to need 1.5 million over 25 years the average length of retirement in the us is actually only 18 years so i've bumped that up to 25 to assume that we're going to retire a little bit earlier now in order to be able to spend that 1.5 million over 25 years from 2030 to 2055 we are going to need 700 000 invested by 2030.
and to show you how i got that we can take a look at this simple retirement calculator so if we start with 700 000 and assume that we're going to be withdrawing 60 000 per year every year for 25 years and also that there's going to be an 8 per year perpetual growth rate on our investment which i think is definitely low considering that pound tier is a growth stock but i'm trying to be conservative with these estimates then that means that if we start with 700 thousand dollars we'll be able to spend 1.5 million over the course of the 25-year period and will even be left with over 170 thousand dollars at the end and for the perpetual growth rate the reason why i'm using the 8 figure is because the inflation adjusted average s p 500 roi has been 8.29 per year so even if we assume a slight increase in inflation over the next 30 years or so i think we can pencil in an 8 per year perpetual growth rate and honestly i think that's realistic and probably even conservative because if we take a look at some other companies for instance sap which probably isn't even considered a growth stock that's clearing the 8 per year growth margin for sure and then if we look at some growth companies like oracle or microsoft or even google you can see that if you assumed an 8 per year perpetual growth rate in these stocks let's say 30 years ago that would look ridiculous now compared to where things are today so with those assumptions out of the way we can now say that by 2030 the goal is to have seven hundred thousand dollars invested in pound tier stock now the next step is to figure out what volunteers valuation will be in 2030.
so to calculate this i've laid out four different scenarios here what i'm calling low mid high and then stars align let's start with the low scenario and work our way up so if you try and find valuation models for what volunteer might be worth in 2030 there's lots of different estimates out there and for the low scenario i used an article from nasdaq.com where they outline what they think palantir will be worth in 2030 and they have a valuation model and you can check that out by following the link down here now what they're saying is that by 2030 pounds here could be worth around 70 billion dollars and if we account for an inflated total float meaning that every year if we assume that palantir issues two percent new shares and has no share buybacks then by 2030 the price per share could be approximately 31.82 cents now honestly i personally think this is a very low ball model and that over the next eight years we're going to see way faster growth from the company you know even back at the beginning of 2021 pound tier was trading at a higher per share basis with a lower total float anyways based on the low scenario that means that we would need twenty two thousand shares of paluntir to retire by twenty thirty with a seven hundred thousand dollar investment and at today's prices that will cost around three hundred and fifty two thousand dollars next up is the middle scenario and i found another valuation model on seekingalpha.com again you can follow the link down here and to check out the numbers and how they arrived at it but basically they're suggesting that volunteer could be worth 150 billion dollars by 2030.
and in fact their numbers that they were using were a little bit higher but i slashed them a little bit to be conservative here and if we apply the same total float number with an approximate two percent per year issuance rate then we're looking at a share price of 68 dollars and 18 cents in 2030. and if this scenario was the one that came to be that would mean that to retire in 2030 you would need approximately 10 000 shares to pound here at today's prices that's around 164 000 now these first two options might seem out of reach for a lot of retail investors that don't have hundreds of thousands of dollars to pour into the stock market today but as you can see moving on to the next valuation model which is the high model it's at least possible that it could take far fewer shares of volunteer to retire now the valuation model in the high scenario is coming from tom nash's youtube channel and some of his videos if you're part of the palantir community on youtube i'm sure you know who tom nash is if not definitely check out his channel he's got a lot of great stuff and he's outlined in a series of videos the bowl case for paluntier and why it could be worth potentially well above 250 billion dollars maybe even 500 billion but for the purposes of this to keep things conservative and since we're talking about 2030 which is only eight years away i decided to use a 250 billion dollar market cap again with the total outstanding shares of 2.2 billion that would lead to a share price of 113 dollars per share meaning that in order to retire in the high scenario you would only need 6 160 shares and at today's prices that's 98 000 now we're starting to get into the realm of what's actually reasonable and attainable for small scale retail investors you know could you picture yourself collecting six thousand shares of pollen tier over the next eight years because we're talking about by 2030 that's how many you need to have i know for me personally at least that would easily be attainable and finally just for fun let's take a look at the stars online scenario where i assume that palantir has a 500 billion dollar market cap by 2030.
now of course i don't have any credible source for this valuation model but i thought it would be interesting to see just for fun and if let's say volunteer achieves that 500 billion market cap by 2030 with a total float of 2.2 billion shares that would mean a share price of 227 and at that price you would only need 3 080 shares to retire at today's price of 16 per share that would cost less than fifty thousand dollars could you acquire enough shares of pollen tier by 2030 to sell a small portion of your total capital every year in retirement and just live off that maybe obviously none of this is an exact science and there's a lot of assumptions in here that have to be made to try and work backwards and figure out how many pound two shares it would take to retire in 2030.
but you can look at these different scenarios and potentially plug and play different figures for your own personal circumstance and see realistically speaking do you think it would be attainable for any of these situations and all of this is assuming that you're spending sixty thousand dollars per year in retirement but if you're careful and frugal you can definitely live off of way less and so that means the number of volunteer shares you would need to retire could be drastically lower thanks so much for watching if you enjoyed this video you might also like this one or this one i'll see you in the next one and have a great day you
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