저자: MarkFarfan · 외국인
요약 보기
QQQ ETF 기준 2030년 은퇴에 필요한 주식 수를 계산한 사고실험 영상. 연 150만 달러(기본)·450만 달러(럭셔리) 목표를 가정하고 연 7%·9%·15%·18% 성장 시나리오별 필요 주식 수와 현재 투자금을 제시. 과거 수익률(설립 이후 연 9.17%, 최근 10년 18.93%, 2022년 -32%) 근거. 대박 가정은 불확실하며 하락 리스크 강조, 무분별한 올인은 비추천.
다듬은 글
how much would you have to have invested in the NASDAQ or the QQQ ETF in order to be able to retire by 2030. let's break it down for starters I'm going to assume that we would need around 1.5 million dollars for a basic normal retirement if we could get to the point where we had 1.5 million dollars invested in the QQQ ETF by 2030 then we'd be able to withdraw approximately ninety thousand dollars per year for 30 years in retirement these figures are based off of the average household expenses in the US today and then adjusted for inflation now if you don't think that you'd be able to live off of that amount then you could either adjust these figures for yourself or consider maybe moving to live somewhere cheaper where the cost of living is a lot lower and where you could live like royalty for the same amount of money so if our Target is 1.5 million dollars for a basic normal retirement then I'm also going to add a 4.5 million dollar Target for a luxury retirement because having three times that amount invested by 2030 would allow us to spend a lot more every single year and to live a much more comfortable life in retirement so considering that how many shares of the QQQ ETF would we need to have by 2030 to be able to actually pull it off let's break it down now for starters the Invesco QQQ ETF tracks the largest non-financial companies on the NASDAQ so this means it's a lot of tech companies that are high growth if we look at the top 10 Holdings these are all household names you have apple Microsoft Amazon Nvidia meta Google Tesla broadcom and Adobe now in order to have an idea of how many shares we would need by 2030 we have to have an idea of what the stock price of QQQ is going to be worth by 2030 and I have four different valuation models here based on the bear case the base case the bull case and the moonshot case now if you look at the Historical growth of this ETF you can see that for example since Inception so since this ETF was created it's returned an average of 9.17 per year but over the last 10 years it's returned 18.93 over the last one year it's returned to 32.78 however in 2022 so last year it returned negative 32 so this is a high risk High reward investment strategy now in order to project out what QQQ could be worth by 2030 I'm basing it on the historical data although it's important to note that it is possible that over the next seven years there is a significant downturn in which case it would probably be very difficult to achieve any of these goals but excluding any sort of massive market crash recession or depression that we're going to base our numbers off of the historical data so for the bear case I'm using seven percent the historical since Inception return of this ETF has been nine percent and this ETF was created in 1999 so that is 24 years of data so if nine percent has been the historical average then I think by using seven percent as an average over the next seven years to 2030 that's a reasonable bare case for the base case I'm using nine percent as that average figure now for the bull case I'm using 15 we can see that the three returns have been on average 15 percent whereas the five year and the ten year have been well above that fifteen percent figure so for the bull case I'm going to use 15 per year growth between now and 2030.
and finally for the moonshot case I'm using 18 growth rates we can see that it's technically possible over the last five years it's returned nearly 18 percent and the 10-year average returns have been in excess of 18 so since we're projecting this out to the year 2030 which is about seven years from right now I think this is a reasonable moonshot valuation case it's definitely not out of the realm of the possible because we see that it has happened before so with these four valuation models let's see what the price of the ETF would be by 2030 and then how many shares you would need to be able to retire off of that amount okay starting with the bearcase valuation model you can see that if the ETF Grows by seven percent on average and we have the valuation models here seven percent on average to the year 2030 would mean a share price of 528 dollars so 528 dollars into 1.5 million means that you would need around 2 830 shares to retire in the lean retirement case this is the Baseline retirement case and if you were going to buy that at today's prices that would cost you just over one million dollars now obviously that's very expensive and I think seven percent per year is pretty pedestrian growth rates that's not really going to move the needle for someone that doesn't already have a lot of money but you'll see as we go up to the base case the bull case and the moonshot case then the amount you would need to invest today a to be able to pull this off goes down significantly now in the luxury retirement scenario for a 4.5 million dollar Target if the price of the QQQ shares is around 528 dollars then that means you would need 8520 shares which would currently cost you about 3.1 million dollars now again I'm sure you're already thinking anybody with 3.1 million dollars today can already comfortably retire so let's see what the base case scenario is if there is an average of nine percent growth between today and 2030 then the share price of QQQ will be around 600 per share and that means you would need 2 486 shares to retire in the base case which would cost you around 930k at today's prices for the luxury situation same share price 600 you would now need 7 400 shares to retire which would cost you about 2.8 million today but moving up to the bull case because this is where it gets more interesting I would say 15 per year growth for the next seven years and we've seen that over the last five years it's returned 17 percent and over the last 10 years it's returned almost 19 so this has happened in the past it doesn't necessarily mean that it will happen in the future but it is possible and if there is a 15 average growth rate between now and 2030 then the share prices of QQQ would probably be around 875 dollars which means you would need 1 708 shares to retire which at today's price of 373 dollars per share would only cost you about 640k and in the luxury retirement scenario you would need 5143 shares which would today cost just over 1.9 million and finally in the moonshot valuation scenario if the ETF grows an average of 18 per year until 2030 then the share price would be over one thousand dollars 1 1048 dollars per share which would mean you would only need one thousand four hundred and twenty six shares to retire which would currently cost you around five hundred and thirty thousand dollars and in the luxury retirement scenario you would need four thousand two hundred and ninety four shares which would cost you currently around 1.6 million now in terms of some key takeaways here you can see that it's going to take a lot of money invested today in the QQQ to be able to retire by 2030 and that's largely because that's only seven years away and it doesn't give your money enough time to compound and to grow and to have that Snowball Effect and so that's why you're seeing that even in the moonshot valuation case if the ETF is growing 18 per year on average you still need to invest five hundred thousand dollars today to be able to pull off retirement seven years from now and with the luxury retirement scenario you know if you had 1.6 million dollars already you could retire in a little bit of a leaner circumstances already today and so what whether or not investing in the QQQ makes sense for you and your retirement goals is something to consider it could be a part of a balanced investing strategy I definitely wouldn't YOLO everything into this but then on the other hand there's probably other ways that you can leverage your money to make more and then to have a better chance of being able to retire by 2030 or 20 35 20 40.
who knows the QQQ has returned some excellent gains over the last 24 years or so but there have been some down years and if there's a down near the year before you want to retire so 2029 let's say then that can have a serious negative impact on the overall portfolio obviously because last year it was down 32.5 percent in one year and I guess this is where I should just reinforce that this is a thought experiment and I am by no means suggesting that you should YOLO all of your money into the QQQ ETF in the hopes of an early retirement thanks so much for watching and if you want to see seven things that you can do today to increase your likelihood of being able to actually retire early then check out this video right here
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