원문 보기
are you bullish on equities right now so it's great reporting by joe look david is right u.s yields are now attractive to foreign buyers not just from japan and to liability matching flows so there is a self-correcting element in the marketplace he's absolutely right on that what is uncertain is what does the fed do and think of it this way andrew we're going through an economic regime change the us economy is accelerating will continue to accelerate throughout the year both on private and public sector activity and what's not clear is what will the fed do and that's the interesting question back to david is what do you expect the fed to do here does the fed start signaling paper or does the fed go all in and reinforce the flaws coming from the rest of the world that is that is very important for how you feel about stocks here andrew well answer that question yourself what do you think is going to happen so i think we are going to continue to see the rotation we've seen i think that was being repriced is what i call liquidity risk not really interest rate risk or equity risk but liquidity risk so the the names that have benefited enormously from all these liquidity inflows in relative terms are going to underperform and the others will start performing better now the market so far has done this in a very orderly fashion and that's important because the one thing the fed does not want is disorderly markets so i'm all in there for the relative trade i think the relative trade is pretty obvious at this stage because of what's happening to liquidity conditions or to be more precise people's confidence about liquidity okay what about tepper's bullishness on amazon which has benefited uh both by the pandemic and arguably liquidity as well yeah you know i said it um last week on cnbc there will come a time when the fangs are going to be really attractive because their longer term prospects are very bright i don't think this is the time i think that there is a lot of liquidity sloshing around in there that's of a temporary nature but he's absolutely right the fundamentals of amazon are really strong as are a number of other big tech the uh joe just to put guys yeah thanks andrew put a little meat on the bones that david sent me some some really detailed analysis on the the currency hedges the dollar hedging costs collapsed significantly and the numbers on the us the 10-year us treasury at 160 1.6 currency heads u.s treasury yields for japanese investors now 109 basis points that's a flip that's a flip highest in five years more importantly the analysis points out that even against the 30-year jgb you get u.s treasury yields 40 basis points higher than that and higher than hedged european yields so all this together muhammad you have you seen numbers like that that make these suddenly at 160 you can't believe that's a that's a great yield but when you look at it globally that could attract uh assets here and flow here and could strengthen the dollar as well weaken the yen which which could you know also have its own uh effects or positive effects on our markets here yes so i i would add to that the 10-year differential between the u.s and germany is up to 190 basis points it was 110 a few weeks ago so we've had we've seen major move in relative yields that favor the us and that is why the dollar index is over 92 today so it it is all consistent right there are self-correcting flows in there and the liability matters so those of us who look at flows are seeing that the us is much more attractive right now but i want to stress i don't know if you asked him what is david's call on the fed because that is really important here the fed has been the biggest buyer of u.s treasuries so what the fed signals is going to be really critical i i was actually i'm in touch with him trying to figure out how how we're doing on this and he it's funny i guess he anticipated your question um he says unless markets go down and financial conditions tighten i'm going asleep on the fed wake me up in september so he i don't think he thinks there's yeah go ahead so joe that is a critical call if you think the fed just just goes to sleep stays as is doesn't indicate any concern about overheating then david is absolutely right i think that that this is a really tough position for the fed i've said over and over again be careful of the lose-lose situation for a fed and that's where it is now because the other side of this is that the u.s economy especially after the jobs report about after personal income after manufacturing is really kicking on a lot of cylinders right now and we're putting another 1.9 trillion plus it's going to be the second fiscal package can the fed really just continue as is if i was in the fed i would not but this fed has surprised me over and over again
Comments 0