저자: DavidTepper · 외국인
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결론: 데이비드 테퍼는 미 경제가 가속 국면(레짐 변화)에 들어섰다고 보며, 연준이 9월 전까지 행동하지 않을 것이라는 입장이다. [시장 전반 및 유동성] 현재 시장 움직임은 금리 리스크보다 유동성 리스크에 따른 재가격 조정으로 해석된다. 유동성 유입의 수혜를 많이 받은 종목들은 상대적으로 부진하고, 그 외 종목들이 상대적으로 나을 것이라고 본다. 시장은 현재까지 질서 있게 움직였으며, 연준도 무질서한 시장을 원하지 않는다는 점이 중요하다. [미국 경제 및 연준] 미 경제는 민간·공공 부문 모두에서 연중 계속 가속될 것으로 전망된다. 연준이 'paper(신호만 주는 수준)'에 그칠지, 아니면 적극적으로 나설지가 주식 판단의 핵심 변수다. 테퍼는 '시장이 하락하고 금융여건이 긴축되지 않는 한 연준은 9월까지 잠들어 있을 것, 9월에 깨워달라'는 입장을 밝혔다. 즉 연준 행동 가능성을 낮게 본다. [금리·환율·외국인 자금] 미 국채 금리가 일본 등 외국인 투자자에게 매력적으로 바뀌었다. 달러 헤지 비용 하락으로 일본 투자자 기준 미 국채 금리(10년 약 109bp)가 일본 국채보다 높아졌고, 이는 자금 유입 및 달러 강세·엔 약세 요인으로 언급됐다. 미-독 10년물 금리차는 몇 주 전 110bp에서 190bp로 확대됐고, 달러인덱스는 92 이상이다. [빅테크] 아마존 등 FANG 종목은 장기 전망은 밝지만 현재는 유동성 과잉에 따른 일시적 수혜 구간으로 보고, 지금이 매력적인 시점은 아니라는 견해다. 다만 아마존의 펀더멘털은 강하다고 평가했다. [리스크] 연준 입장에서 긴축과 완화 모두 어려운 'lose-lose' 상황이며, 경제 과열과 추가 재정(1.9조 달러 이상) 부양이 맞물려 있다. 진행자는 연준이 현 상태를 유지하기 어렵다고 보며, 연준이 예상 밖 행보를 자주 보여왔다고 언급했다. [출연자 전망 요약] 단기 전망: 연준 무행동(9월까지) 관측, 질서 있는 로테이션 지속. 장기 전망: 미국 경제 가속, 장기적으로 FANG 등 빅테크 매력 증가 예상.
다듬은 글
are you bullish on equities right now so it's great reporting by joe look david is right u.s yields are now attractive to foreign buyers not just from japan and to liability matching flows so there is a self-correcting element in the marketplace he's absolutely right on that what is uncertain is what does the fed do and think of it this way andrew we're going through an economic regime change the us economy is accelerating will continue to accelerate throughout the year both on private and public sector activity and what's not clear is what will the fed do and that's the interesting question back to david is what do you expect the fed to do here does the fed start signaling paper or does the fed go all in and reinforce the flaws coming from the rest of the world that is that is very important for how you feel about stocks here andrew well answer that question yourself what do you think is going to happen so i think we are going to continue to see the rotation we've seen i think that was being repriced is what i call liquidity risk not really interest rate risk or equity risk but liquidity risk so the the names that have benefited enormously from all these liquidity inflows in relative terms are going to underperform and the others will start performing better now the market so far has done this in a very orderly fashion and that's important because the one thing the fed does not want is disorderly markets so i'm all in there for the relative trade i think the relative trade is pretty obvious at this stage because of what's happening to liquidity conditions or to be more precise people's confidence about liquidity okay what about tepper's bullishness on amazon which has benefited uh both by the pandemic and arguably liquidity as well yeah you know i said it um last week on cnbc there will come a time when the fangs are going to be really attractive because their longer term prospects are very bright i don't think this is the time i think that there is a lot of liquidity sloshing around in there that's of a temporary nature but he's absolutely right the fundamentals of amazon are really strong as are a number of other big tech the uh joe just to put guys yeah thanks andrew put a little meat on the bones that david sent me some some really detailed analysis on the the currency hedges the dollar hedging costs collapsed significantly and the numbers on the us the 10-year us treasury at 160 1.6 currency heads u.s treasury yields for japanese investors now 109 basis points that's a flip that's a flip highest in five years more importantly the analysis points out that even against the 30-year jgb you get u.s treasury yields 40 basis points higher than that and higher than hedged european yields so all this together muhammad you have you seen numbers like that that make these suddenly at 160 you can't believe that's a that's a great yield but when you look at it globally that could attract uh assets here and flow here and could strengthen the dollar as well weaken the yen which which could you know also have its own uh effects or positive effects on our markets here yes so i i would add to that the 10-year differential between the u.s and germany is up to 190 basis points it was 110 a few weeks ago so we've had we've seen major move in relative yields that favor the us and that is why the dollar index is over 92 today so it it is all consistent right there are self-correcting flows in there and the liability matters so those of us who look at flows are seeing that the us is much more attractive right now but i want to stress i don't know if you asked him what is david's call on the fed because that is really important here the fed has been the biggest buyer of u.s treasuries so what the fed signals is going to be really critical i i was actually i'm in touch with him trying to figure out how how we're doing on this and he it's funny i guess he anticipated your question um he says unless markets go down and financial conditions tighten i'm going asleep on the fed wake me up in september so he i don't think he thinks there's yeah go ahead so joe that is a critical call if you think the fed just just goes to sleep stays as is doesn't indicate any concern about overheating then david is absolutely right i think that that this is a really tough position for the fed i've said over and over again be careful of the lose-lose situation for a fed and that's where it is now because the other side of this is that the u.s economy especially after the jobs report about after personal income after manufacturing is really kicking on a lot of cylinders right now and we're putting another 1.9 trillion plus it's going to be the second fiscal package can the fed really just continue as is if i was in the fed i would not but this fed has surprised me over and over again
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Are you bullish on equities right now? It's great reporting, Joe. Look, David is right: U.S. yields are now attractive to foreign buyers, not just from Japan, and to liability-matching flows, so there is a self-correcting element in the marketplace. He's absolutely right on that. What is uncertain is what the Fed does. Think of it this way, Andrew: we're going through an economic regime change. The U.S. economy is accelerating and will continue to accelerate throughout the year, both in private and public sector activity. What's not clear is what the Fed will do, and that's the interesting question. Back to David: what do you expect the Fed to do here? Does the Fed start signaling taper, or does the Fed go all in and reinforce the flows coming from the rest of the world? That is very important for how you feel about stocks here.
Andrew, well, answer that question yourself. What do you think is going to happen? So I think we are going to continue to see the rotation we've seen. What I think was being repriced is what I call liquidity risk, not really interest rate risk or equity risk, but liquidity risk. The names that have benefited enormously from all these liquidity inflows, in relative terms, are going to underperform, and the others will start performing better. So far the market has done this in a very orderly fashion, and that's important, because the one thing the Fed does not want is disorderly markets. So I'm all in there for the relative trade. I think the relative trade is pretty obvious at this stage, because of what's happening to liquidity conditions, or, to be more precise, people's confidence about liquidity.
Okay, what about Tepper's bullishness on Amazon, which has benefited both from the pandemic and arguably from liquidity as well? Yeah, I said it last week on CNBC: there will come a time when the FANGs are going to be really attractive, because their longer-term prospects are very bright. I don't think this is the time. I think there is a lot of liquidity sloshing around in there that's of a temporary nature. But he's absolutely right, the fundamentals of Amazon are really strong, as are a number of other big tech names.
Joe, just to put some meat on the bones: David sent me some really detailed analysis on the currency hedges. The dollar hedging costs collapsed significantly. On the numbers: the 10-year U.S. Treasury, at 1.6%, with currency hedges, U.S. Treasury yields for Japanese investors are now 109 basis points. That's a flip, the highest in five years. More importantly, the analysis points out that even against the 30-year JGB, you get U.S. Treasury yields 40 basis points higher, and higher than hedged European yields. So all this together, Muhammad, have you seen numbers like that? At 1.6%, you can't believe that's a great yield, but when you look at it globally, that could attract assets here and flows here, and could strengthen the dollar, as well as weaken the yen, which could also have its own effects, positive effects, on our markets here.
Yes, so I would add to that: the 10-year differential between the U.S. and Germany is up to 190 basis points. It was 110 a few weeks ago. We've seen a major move in relative yields that favor the U.S., and that is why the dollar index is over 92 today. So it is all consistent. There are self-correcting flows in there, and liability matters. Those of us who look at flows are seeing that the U.S. is much more attractive right now. But I want to stress: I don't know if you asked him what David's call on the Fed is, because that is really important here. The Fed has been the biggest buyer of U.S. Treasuries, so what the Fed signals is going to be really critical. I was actually in touch with him trying to figure out how we're doing on this, and it's funny, I guess he anticipated your question. He says, "Unless markets go down and financial conditions tighten, I'm going to sleep on the Fed. Wake me up in September."
So, Joe, that is a critical call. If you think the Fed just goes to sleep, stays as is, and doesn't indicate any concern about overheating, then David is absolutely right. I think this is a really tough position for the Fed. I've said over and over again: be careful of the lose-lose situation for a Fed, and that's where it is now. Because the other side of this is that the U.S. economy, especially after the jobs report, after personal income, after manufacturing, is really firing on a lot of cylinders right now, and we're putting another 1.9 trillion-plus into it. It's going to be the second fiscal package. Can the Fed really just continue as is? If I were on the Fed, I would not. But this Fed has surprised me over and over again.
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