저자: DavidTepper—CNBC인터뷰를통해전달된간접발언 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 데이비드 테퍼는 단기적으로 금리 상승이 고점에 근접했다고 보고 주식 비중 확대(강세)를 택했다. [테퍼의 금리 판단] - 10년물 국채금리(약 1.6%)가 이번 상승의 상단 근처이며, 향후 수개월은 1.3~1.7% 박스권에서 안정될 것으로 봄 - 이는 장기 금리 전망이 아니라 향후 6개월~1년 이내 단기 안정에 대한 견해임 - 일본의 국채 상한 확대 발표는 예상과 달리 발표되지 않았고, 이 충격이 금리 상승 압력을 일시적으로 낮출 수 있다는 해석 [일본 변수] - 쿠로다 BOJ 총재가 10년물 국채 변동폭(±40bp) 확대를 하지 않아 시장이 놀람 - 엔화 헤지 비용 변화로 일본 투자자들이 미국 국채를 다시 매수할 유인이 생길 수 있다고 분석 - 일본은 5년 이상 미국채 순매도 국가였으나 매수 전환 가능성 언급 [재정 부양책] - 1.9조 달러 규모 부양책이 이번 주 통과되면 금리 안정과 결합해 주식에 매우 강세 요인이라고 판단 [종목·섹터 언급] - 아마존: 주가가 과거 대비 크게 하락해 현재 가격이 저렴하다고 평가, 온라인 소비 구조의 영구적 변화 수혜 기대 - 나스닥: 금요일 저점 부근에서 테퍼가 공격적 매수에 나섰다고 언급 [리스크·조건] - 금리가 다시 빠르게 상승하면 강세 논리 훼손 가능 - 테퍼 본인도 이것이 장기 금리 전망이 아니라고 명시 [출연자 전망] - 진행자는 시장이 금리 상승 지속 여부에 따라 균형을 이루고 있다는 시각을 소개하며 테퍼 견해와 상충 가능성을 제기 - 글로벌 관찰자(무함마드)와의 추가 논의를 예고
다듬은 글
I was able to speak with David Tepper in detail last night, and he more or less initiated the conversation based on the market activity we saw on Friday. Regarding the lows, he described his stance on the markets as follows: "There's an aviation term for pushing the throttle to the wall, and there are these little knobs, if you will, on each side of the aviation throttle, and the knobs go to the wall," but for some reason we won't say that.
I'm fine with that , but he said that at the lows on Friday he was actually putting pressure on him. He became optimistic for a very specific reason, and it becomes a little mysterious, but you know, Tepper—he's a guy who will go with the crowd when he needs to, but he can also be very controversial.
And it's a controversial decision based on what happened in Japan on Friday. Interestingly, but, uh, yields in Japan fell after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said they were going to widen the range for Japan's 10-year government bonds . Uh, David's point is that for 5 years, more than 5 years, the Japanese have been net sellers of US Treasuries.
After all, right now , at 1.6% on our 10-year, they're probably going to be buyers now because they can make a nice profit based on how cheap the 10-year US Treasury is compared to, uh, the 10- year and 30-year Japanese. And it may not seem like it because the rates are lower, but it's because of the currency hedged positions that you take.
Now they have fallen, their value has decreased. So now you can earn about half a point more on our treasury. So, his point is that it removes risk, and it's very hard to be bearish right now. His main thesis is that we are at the upper end of the range for at least a few months on the 10-year bond, and maybe the new range will be 1.3 to 1.7, but he expects it to be much more stable now on the 10-year bond, and that goes against everything you've been talking about today , you know, hearing about 3% on the 10-year.
He wanted to emphasize something, and I actually understood it this morning, because it's very unclear when you look at what we're talking about in Japan, and you know , currency hedging and all that. He says: “Basically, I think rates have temporarily maxed out this move and should be more stable over the next few months, making it safer to be in stocks now, not necessarily a long-term forecast of where rates will be in 6 months to a year.” But at the moment, a lot of what, you know, has the market excited, uh, is that rates are rising and moving fast.
He believes we are close to the upper limit, at least for the next few months. Now he's combined all of this with a stimulus package . He says there is a possibility of stable rates when the 1.9 trillion is passed this week, and the combination of those two things could be very bullish, uh, for stocks.
So now, in terms of the pens to the wall and through the wall and all that, this expression, uh, it was more, uh, at the lows on Friday, if you saw the Nasdaq. Er , I think this is where he got really bullish and acted on his bullish intentions. He also made some interesting comments about some of the Leaders, like Amazon, that Amazon is now, 25-30 times the size he was here, and it's come down pretty, uh, from where it was, that it's cheap, uh , it's not expensive at the moment, and that's something that he thinks has been made permanent changes, and where we're going to buy t- shirts someday.
You'll probably never go to a store to buy a t-shirt if you can just order it online, and there have been a lot of permanent changes, so Amazon is looking pretty good for it. So that's what we have, and I saw a little bit of the show earlier, and I saw a lot of people talking about, you know, the market is balancing on a real issue that depends on whether prices continue to rise.
So that kind of contradicts that. And I'll be interested, I'll be interested in what you guys think, and I'll be interested in talking to Muhammad about this, because, you know, he's a global observer of everything global, and it was a real shock. in Japan. I mean , the quote was that Kuroda stunned market participants by not widening that range.
They have, uh, yield controls that they have there, at zero, and the range is now 40 basis points, and on Friday it was widely expected that they would raise that range, which would , uh, you know, they're dealing with the same thing that we're dealing with. They want the economy to continue to function.
They don't want to stifle it, but there is pressure to raise rates, and that came as a surprise on Friday, and that was all the more reason for Tepper to be optimistic. .
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