Jim Cramer reacts to February jobs report: 'Just what this crazy market needed'

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결론: 2월 고용지표는 '딱 적당히 좋은' 수준이라 시장에 필요했지만, 채권시장(금리) 흐름이 여전히 주식 방향을 좌우하며 변동성 장세는 계속될 것이다. 시장 움직임: 장초반 하락 후 다우 572포인트 상승, S&P500 1.95%, 나스닥 1.55% 상승으로 마감했다. 고용 수치가 금리 인상 우려를 자극하지 않을 정도여서 '히든 골디락스'로 평가했다. 백신 접종 확대로 더 많은 사람이 혜택을 보고 있지만 연준이 금리를 올릴 만큼은 아니라는 점이 긍정 요인이다. 채권 시장이 안정(10년물 금리 하락 또는 유지)하면 주식 강세의 청신호로 본다. 채권 시장 우려: 채권 자경단(bond vigilantes)은 경기 과열을 우려해 금리 인상을 원하고 있다. 파월 의장은 포용적 회복 전까지 긴축하지 않겠다고 강조했다. 크레이머는 파월이 옳다고 보지만 채권 시장은 통제할 수 없다고 말한다. 과거 비교: 2015년 11월~2016년 2월 옐런 연준의 금리 인상과 주가 충격 시기와 유사하다고 우려한다. 이번에도 같은 패턴이 반복될까 두려워하면서도 경계를 늦추지 않겠다고 말한다. 증시 수급: 지난 주 빚투(신용 매수)가 급증해 증거금 비율이 사상 최고치 부근이었다. 이번 하락으로 강제 청산이 일어났고, 그 후 반등하는 '루즈 바텀' 패턴이 나타났다. 다만 하루 반등으로 위기가 끝난 것은 아니라고 경고한다. 고평가 종목 약세: 한 달~두 달 전 가장 뜨거웠던 고성장·고밸류 주식과 SPAC(스팩) 종목들은 여전히 매도 압력을 받고 있다. 향후 전망: 경기 호재(부양책 통과, 백신 목표 달성)가 나올 때마다 채권 자경단이 채권을 매도해 장기금리를 끌어올리고, 이것이 주식 약세로 이어질 것으로 본다. 금리 상승을 멈출 유일한 요인은 원자재 가격(유가, 구리, 목재, 플라스틱, 종이) 하락 등 약한 경제 지표다. 아직 그런 신호는 나오지 않았다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. an employment number that's strong but not too strong was just what this crazy market needed today although it took half the day for wall street to figure that out dow going down at first but then eventually finishing up 572 points s p gaining one point nine five percent nasdaq advancing 1.55 it was it was a hidden goldilocks support let's call it that a lot more people are getting higher thanks to the vaccine rollout in the opening uh but uh not so many that the fed will feel compelled to raise interest rates and some are really being left behind why does that matter because the bond market is calling the tune right now and when the bond markets please meaning treasury yields are stable as they ended up today or even go lower didn't get that buyers rush into the stock market because they know the competition from bonds will remain benign a benign bond market serves as an all-clear signal for the stock market bulls now this has been a confusing time for fixed income investors because the whole narrative on the economy changed practically overnight we went from a period of stagnation where we were propped up by government spending to the beginning of what could be a potential boom as more people get vaccinated and washington gets ready to throw more fuel in the fire if the economy is poised to get so much better why the heck do we need the federal reserve to keep giving giving us easy money right interesting question and that is the bomb what we call the bond vigilantes position they want rate hikes they think the economy is too hot i get that however fed chief jay pal insisted he won't tighten anytime soon because so many people are being left out of potential come back the inflation is really just nascent and could go back down and even though he's been very right on the economy so far the bond vigilantes have decided he's just some dove in a suit who's going to create a tsunami of inflation with his stance i think they're wrong i think j-pal is right but i'm not the one who controls the bond market i keep telling you this moment feels like the period from november 2015 to february 2016 when our old fed chief janet yellen looked at the dashboard of the economy very similar right now saw some inflation indicators flashing red like we have right now and decided it was time to raise rates even though she appeased the bond vigilantes and gave a sample warning the economy was crushed and stocks took a hit and that's what i fear i fear repeated that time and i am staying not as a vigilante but i'm staying vigilant powell refuses to be count but the bond bullies who are very powerful don't believe it the feds had a zero tolerance policy toward inflation for my whole career these guys can't imagine something there's this guy pal who would charge a new course no matter how many times he explains it now the session opened rocky because lots of investors bought stocks with borrowed money over the last week so margins nearing a record high here and they got blown out by this week's decline and a sharp initial move up in rates in reaction to that employment number but then rates reversed and we got one of those loose bottoms i've been talking about where we have a sharp decline fueled by force selling and then the market swiftly rebounds when that selling is over if the bonds rally and uh interest rates fall and that's what happened so we out of the woods no that's just one day's worth of a scenario not so fast the battle is far from over with lots more collateral damage particularly by the way i don't have you noticed but the highest gross stocks even today and the myriad spax they're still being taken out and shot despite the nice backdrop basically everything was red hot a month or two ago is not so great so here's how i see it playing out whenever we get good news for the economy like when the senate passes the stimulus package or when we get big vaccine benchmarks the bond vigilantes will come out of the woodwork with the same playbook that you saw earlier this week they will dump bonds pushing long-term interest rates higher and triggering more weakness in the stock market like we saw yesterday the only thing that will stop the bond buoys is weaker economic data especially lower commodity prices like oil copper lumber plastic and paper that hasn't happened yet but if you got those lower then the heat's off pal