저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션 압력은 일시적이지 않을 수 있으나 연준은 일회성으로 본다. 금리 상승 우려 속 은행주 강세를 언급. 인플레이션: 모건스탠리는 2021년 가격 압력이 이동성 관련 부문을 중심으로 중반까지 지속될 것으로 봄. 파월 연준의장은 기대인플레이션이 낮게 유지되어 가격 상승은 일회성이라고 발언. 공급망/품목: 코스트코 CFO는 항만 지연, 가구·스포츠용품·정원용품·일부 식품, 비식품 전자제품(칩 부족), TV·컴퓨터·스마트홈 제품에 가격 압력이 있다고 언급. 운동기구·자전거도 공급 문제가 있다고 지적. 펠로톤: 공급 차질 문제가 있으나 출연자들은 직접 매수 추천을 하지 않음. 사회자는 답변을 회피. 금리: 10년물 금리가 2%까지 오를 수 있다는 논의. 대규모 국채 발행(약 1.9조 달러 부양책 관련) 수급 부담으로 금리 상승 가능성이 제기됨. 주택시장은 아직 큰 타격 없음. 고런 그룹은 단기 금리 상승에 대한 반응이 이번에는 더 빠를 것으로 전망. 은행주: JP모건 등 대형은행 강세. 피프스서드(Fifth Third) 주가가 53% 상승한 점을 언급하며 긍정적 평가. 퍼스트 호라이즌(First Horizon)은 테네시 등 호황 지역 기반으로 좋은 투자처로 언급. 세금: 테네시 등 무소득세 주가 세금 측면에서 유리하다고 언급. 출연자 전망 요약: 인플레이션은 일시적 측면이 크나 공급 문제는 지속, 금리는 상승 압력, 은행주 선호.
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i want to talk a bit about inflation uh jim uh morgan stanley today out of the note saying that these pressures for 2021 are not necessarily transient especially in mobility related sectors and of course powell got right to the point yesterday with that wall street journal conference take a listen businesses and people would need to believe that larger increases in prices would be repeated year after year and we think it's unlikely that these deeply ingrained low inflation expectations would suddenly change it is more likely that effects like the ones i described would be one-time effects yeah morgan stanley jim says um it's going to remain elevated through mid-year as inventories and supply chains remain challenged which we talk about literally every day well costco rich galani who's my favorite cfo of the the retail groups has a list there in the costco he says here timing delays port delays they're impacting furniture sporting goods lawn and garden even some food and sanji seafood imported cheeses and oils and then there are pricing pressures in non-food electronics chip shortage names tvs as pricing pressure computers pricing pressure smart home related items and then here's one exercise equipment and bikes do you want to step dave do you want to step in front of peloton right now when you know that they they're having supply problems to get bikes at costco equipment problem exercise equipment at costco no thank you that's right 108 million strong yeah and they want their so by a little pelton here what do you think will schnitzel uh no thanks no no you're not going to take it on no look at it down 12 you don't think this is a level i don't know i don't i don't opine on this stuff that's that's for you so let's turn this back do i want to buy peloton here jim it was facetious i know that but i don't i get uncomfortable just being asked because whatever okay i'm just saying if costco can't get extra cycles and can't get equipment uh the delay in peloton what does it mean remember it took 100 million dollars last time and they've got this new i don't know if they uh carl have you tried their treadmill i don't know um no i've heard good things but i've not tried the tread well it's early i mean but i doubt i'll get a chance to anytime soon either no and you got to put your name and it's kind of like getting a fisker a lucid a treadmill named me two cars and something popular jim let's just but let's come back to the big picture here in terms of the 10-year where the yield may go do we i mean you is people are actually starting to uh talk about two percent um what happens to these growth names if you continue to see the trajectory with prices obviously down yield up uh uh uh uh right now they're benign right the benign today but i've read a piece that reminded me of two of when in 1990s the supply that's going to hit the market next week how's the market going to handle the supply you're talking about the bond market yes because of course if we get the 1.9 trillion which looks likely we're going to treasury is going to be selling bonds a lot of bonds we're going to be it's uh deficit spending as we know and um there is a question like where does the additional supply come from unless the fed's just going to scoop it all up yeah buy it but not clear that's the case no it's not but i i david i look at the supply problem it is a problem so we can have some auctions that go off the rails yes and what's that going to do to the market well rates are going to go a little higher still hasn't hurt the housing market though we got to point that out no it doesn't initially you look at a longer term of car ride of the 30-year and it's still pretty low but even though it's moved up but yeah absolutely but have you seen the numbers carl that they got phil labo's got out on on the price of autos i mean phil phil obviously is just well the input yeah not yet good yeah they're they're having to pay more for components and that's going to feed right to us yep and we need david scoffs at it but we need a 50 billion dollar uh 50-year bond to build i actually talk with some of the larger ceos and chips they all know that we need a government we need it like a manhattan project we're going to need a bigger bond all right one of my favorite movies we're going to die it is yeah the best i always thought you were although jim on the flip side on the flip side goldman does uh take fifth third uh to conviction by today saying that uh the reaction to higher rates especially at the short end is going to be a lot quicker this time well look these these banks are flying i mean i saw just jp morgan up two points uh even before the number people decided this is the way to play it uh and they decided that you you got to play it with exxon and uh it doesn't matter i mean fifth there's a very good bank i remember when i first heard it when i was in goldman and i called it third fifth and the guy said no it's fifth third i said well why would they put fifth before third david it's a quandary it's a conundrum it's a very good bank uh yes as we take a look at the overall the bigger banks as well but i did not see fifth third shares up over 53 percent it's been a good place to be will that continue to be the case as we start to how about king you got a slight key well he's only a 23.
the one that is the best i think is first horizon because uh brian jordan has done a great job up 27 3.6 yield and you get the best areas in the country you get tennessee which is booming why because carl their taxes are somewhat better than ours you get to keep a considerably more of your paycheck now we're still working uh i don't think it's a paycheck it's like hmm it's not a paycheck but soon if if they apologize get with no it'll be a stipend that's what i call it you'll be given a stipend you'd be all right so you're so you're a rich guy and that's what you say no that's what people are going to say on twitter you know that as soon as you say that i know i mean i was getting past 52 53 54 of your income i don't know well i mean is it better than taking two percent of what you own and just make it right in a check for what you own
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