저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 버핏은 주식시장이 카지노처럼 투기를 부추긴다고 경고하며, 특정 종목이나 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 하지 않는다. 주식시장의 카지노적 성격: 시장에는 본질적으로 도박 성향이 있으며, 주변에서 사람들이 부자가 되는 것을 보면 투기 욕구가 커진다고 설명한다. 투기와 도박의 사회적 문제: 도박에 대한 접근성을 높이는 정부는 시민의 약점을 이용하는 것이며, 도박은 무지에 대한 세금이라고 비판한다. 카지노 비유의 한계: 카지노는 사람들에게 고의로 해를 끼치는 사업이라 버크셔 해서웨이는 카지노에 투자하지 않을 것이라고 밝힌다. 월스트리트와 투기: 최근 몇 년간 시장이 투자보다 투기 성격으로 기울었으며, 주식을 자주 사고파는 거래가 장기 투자보다 증권사에 더 많은 수익을 준다고 지적한다. 케인스 인용: 케인스가 일반이론 12장에서 투자와 투기를 다루며 투기의 위험을 언급했다고 소개한다. 중국 시장 전망: 중국은 신생 시장이라 광범위한 참여로 극단적인 투기 경험을 할 가능성이 크다고 말한다. 시장 변동성의 기회: 공포와 탐욕에 따른 극단적 반응은 인내하는 투자자에게 기회를 제공한다고 본다. 2008년 9월 머니마켓펀드 자금 대량 이탈 사례를 예로 든다. 결론적 조언: 시장은 대중에게 무엇이 일어나고 있는지 알려주는 곳이 아니라 이용당할 수 있는 곳이므로, 투자를 계속 설파해야 한다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
markets have a casino characteristic that has a lot of appeal to people particularly when they see like I say people getting rich around them and those who haven't been through Cycles before are probably a little more prone to speculate than people who have have experienced the the outcome of wild speculations desire of people to gamble and they gamble in stocks incidentally too day trading I would say in and very often was came very close to gambling as defined but people people like to gamble you know I mean it's it if if the Super Bowl is on or even well the better yet if a terribly boring football game is on but you don't have anything to do and you're sitting there with somebody else you're probably going to enjoy the game more if you bet a few bucks on it one way or the other uh as you know I mean we ensure hurricanes so I watch the Weather Channel but that's a uh it can be exciting I by people the the human propensity to gamble is is huge now when it was legalized only in pretty much in Nevada you had to go to some distance or break some laws to do any serious gambling but as the states learned to uh you know what a great source of of Revenue it was they gradually made it easier and easier and easier for people to gamble and believe me the easier it's made uh the more people will gamble I mean when I was my my children are here and 40 years ago uh I bought a slot machine and I put it up on our third floor and I could give my kids any allowance they wanted as long as it was in dimes I mean I had it all back by Nightfall I thought I thought it would be a good lesson for him and now they weren't going to Las Vegas to do it but believe me when I was on the third floor they could find it you know and uh and my payout ratio was terrible too but that's the kind of father I was uh the but gambling you know people are always going to want to do it and uh for that reason I particularly think that access you know in terms of friendly Gamma or anything like that I'm not a prude about it but I do think that to quite an extent gambling is a tax on ignorance I mean if you want to if you want to tax the the ignorant people who will do things with the odds against them you know you just put it in and guys like me don't have to pay taxes and I I really don't I find that I find it kind of socially revolting when a governor a government preys on the weaknesses of its citizenry rather than acts to serve them and and believe me when a government sticks like yeah I yeah when a government makes it easy for people to take their Social Security checks and start pulling handles uh or participating in lotteries or whatever it may be it's a pretty cynical act it works it's a pretty cynical act and it uh it it relieves taxes on those you know who who don't fall for those and or who don't weren't dreaming about having a car instead of actually having a car and dreaming about a color TV instead of having one uh so it's it's not government at its best and I think other things flow from that over time too Charlie casinos use clever psychological tricks to cause people to hurt themselves there is undoubtedly a lot of harmless Amusement in the casinos but there's also a lot of Grievous injury that is deliberately caused by the casinos it's a dirty business and I don't think you'll find a casino soon in Berkshire Hathaway hmm and this is really important to understand in the last couple of years this is our Market is probably it's always been a combination of a casino and a uh and when I talk about Wall Street I'm talking about the whole Capital formation Market uh but the and and trading Market Etc but the market has been extraordinary in it sometimes it's it's quite investment oriented kind of like it always you've read about in the books and everything uh what what capital markets are supposed to do and you study it in school and all that and other times it's it's it's almost totally uh a casino and uh it's a gambling parlor and that existed do an extraordinary degree uh the last couple years encouraged by Wall Street because the money is in the money is turned is in turning over stocks I mean people say how wonderful you've done if you bought Bircher in the in you know 1965 or something and and held it but you broke her with the star of the death I mean it's Wall Street makes money I'm um One Way or Another catching the crumbs to fall off a table of capitalism and and and and and and and and and an incredible economy that nobody could have ever dreamed of a couple hundred years ago but that they don't make money unless people do things and that they get a piece of them uh and it's it's uh and they make a lot more money when people are gambling than when they're investing I mean it's much better to have somebody that's going to trade 20 times a day and got all excited about it just like pain pulling the handle on the slot machine you know that's who you now you may not say that you would want that person you'd like the other kind of person too maybe but that's where you make the money when in any system uh Kings wrote about this in nineteen 36 I think it was in the general theory or 35 I think it's chapter 12.
what is a great chapter on investing and he talked about investment and speculation and the propensity of people to speculate and the dangers of it and worded eloquently there's always the possibility of I mean there's always some speculation obviously and there's always some value investors and all that sort of thing in the market but there's one speculation gets rampant and when you're getting but I guess Charlie would call social proof uh that it's worked recently people can get very excited about speculating in markets and we will have it from time to time in this market there's nothing more agonizing than to see your neighbor who you think has an IQ about 30 points below you getting richer than you are by buying stocks and whether it's internet stocks or whatever and it and people succumb to it and those succumb in this economy just as elsewhere there's also a point which gets to your question I would say that early on in the development of markets uh there's probably a a there's some tendency for them I think to be more speculative than markets have been around for a couple hundred years uh because the it it has a invest markets have a casino characteristic that has a lot of appeal to people particularly when they see like I say people getting rich around them and those who haven't been through Cycles before are probably a little more prone to speculate than or people who have have experienced the the outcome of wild speculation so I you know basically in this country um Ben Graham was in the book I read in 1949 was preaching investment and and that book continues to sell very well but if the market gets hot new issues are doing well and and people on Leverage are doing well uh a lot of people will be attracted then not only speculation but what I would call gambling and I'm afraid that that will that will be true in the United States and I I think that that China being a newer uh marketers essentially in which there's widespread participation is likely to have some pretty extreme experiences in that respect we will have some in this country too Charlie well I certainly agree with that the the Chinese will have more trouble they're very bright people they have a lot of action and and uh sure they're gonna be more speculative and it's a dumb idea and to the extent you're working on it like you're on the side of the Angels but lots of luck well it will it will it will offer the investor more opportunities actually uh if if they can keep their wits about them if you have wild speculation I mean we Charlie just mentioned earlier you know that if we get into periods that are very tough Berkshire Berkshire certainly will do reasonably well because it it it it won't it we won't be we won't get fearful and fear spreads like you cannot believe until you've seen a few examples of it at the start of September 2008 you had 35 million people with their money in Money Market funds with three and a half trillion dollars in them and none of them were afraid that that dollar wasn't going to be a dollar when they went to cash in their money market fund and three weeks later they were all terrified in the 175 billion flowed out in three days and so the way the public can react is really extreme in markets uh and that actually offers opportunities for investors you'll never people like action and they like to gamble and if they think there's easy money to be made a lot of them you'll get a rush to it and for a while it will be self-fulfilling and create new Comfort converts until the Day of Reckoning comes without uh just keep preaching investing in and if the market swings around a lot do you you'll keep adding a few people here and there to the to a group that recognizes that markets are there to be taken advantage of rather than to instruct you as to what is going on
Comments 0