저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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2024년 트럼프 승리 시 성장·인플레이션 기대로 금리 상승 압력이 커질 것이며, 금과 비트코인이 인플레이션 헤지로 강세를 보일 것이라는 주장. 시장은 트럼프 승리와 연준 금리 인하(9월 50bp)에 따른 인플레이션 재점화를 우려해 미국채 매도(금리 상승)에 베팅 중이며, 국가부채 이자 부담도 장기 금리 상승 요인으로 제시. 비트코인은 2025년 10월까지 50만 달러 도달 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
at the beginning of the year I said the breakout asset was going to be Bitcoin I think it looks like it's going to be the resounding inflation hedge asset for the next 50 or 100 years so that die has been cast I think you're seeing the last vestages of people using gold as a rational economic insurance policy but I think the future is specifically Bitcoin on that dimension so I guess you could trade that you could speculate on that at the start of 2024 just ahead of the sec's approval of several spot Bitcoin ETFs billionaire venture capitalist Cham ofth palahia highlighted Bitcoin in its ETFs as pivotal for the year palahia believes 2024 will Mark a turning point for Bitcoin predicting its mainstream acceptance and incorporation into Financial vocabulary by Year's End he expects a major Bull Run drawing on historical patterns where Bitcoin stabilizes for 3 to 6 months after harving before experiencing significant price increases he estimates Bitcoin could exceed $500,000 per coin by October 2025 precisely 18 months after the recent harving on a recent episode of the all-in podcast he discussed how the current economic climate is pushing investors towards safer assets like Bitcoin and gold make sure to watch the rest of this video where chouth explains why the inflationary pressures on the US economy are a bullish driver for Bitcoin also if you enjoy listening to crypto related content please show your your support by liking and subscribing to this channel by following the link in my bio and get access to my free daily crypto updates and expert predictions direct to your inbox each newsletter contains Market Intelligence on chain data and latest updates from experts in the crypto space all of this is available completely free of charge signing up only takes a moment and you can always change your mind later on now back over to chouth there's a there's another couple of nuances here that I think are important the US dollar complex is thriving which means like the US dollar is strong backend yields are rising and then another thing that I look at is this thing called put call skew so basically like on balance how are people hedging in the short term and in the bond market they own a lot more puts than they do calls I think that this is the entire Financial infrastructure of the world repositioning itself from what was a toss-up election to a trump win and when you look at why it's because when you forget the candidates themselves for a second but if you think about the actual policies and where the spending will occur I think that there has been a very clear decision that the Trump economic plan will drive better growth than the Harris plan and if you think that there is more growth coming typically what will come with that is a little bit more inflation the risk premium that you're going to need in a high growth environment is higher what is risk premium that is how much do I want to invest for a risky asset versus a safe asset and so all of these things are coalescing so I think that the shortterm takeaway that I have just looking at all of this data is that in the economic distribution of outcomes this is now tilted overwhelmingly to a trump win and this is not an emotional statement or what I want to happen but this is just an observation how how tens of trillions of dollars of self-interested financial actors have now repositioned their risk and if Trump wins which it looks like he's increasingly going to do and if he wins by the margins that it looks like it's going to do you're going to see a lot of these things exacerbate Gold's going to go up more probably Bitcoin will probably go up the short-term economic upside for the economy will probably get reflected in higher Equity prices but it'll also push out long-term rates the inflation picture becomes a little bit murkier but I think that that's what's happening I think that the the financial markets are pricing in a trump win sorry just to understand better why do gold go up in a trump win I think in the short term what happens is that you see more economic growth but in the medium term inflation goes up and so you want to hedge right so it's it's more about a durational balance of assets so in the short term you'll be long the things that will generate earnings but in the medium to long term you want toe yourself so Bitcoin and gold I think will trade that way as you heard right there the key line that Paul tutor Jones said was all Ros Lee to inflation I mean that that's what's basically happening right now is that the market is afraid that infl is not whipped and is going to resurface and the FED may have to Pivot from the pivot and raise interest rates that's why he doesn't want to own any treasuries separately another Financial Legend Stan druckenmiller gave an interview where he has something like a 20% short position meaning 20% of his Holdings are short us treasuries right now so he's betting that there are long-term inflation pressures and that rates are going to have to rise and and you're seeing again that since the FED cut rates on September 18th by 50 basis points that the 10year T bills yield has risen by 60 basis points so I I think my interpretation is that this is less about the election and more about the markets not liking the fed's rate cut on September 18th I think that in hindsight it was too big so again the market is concerned that inflation is not whipped that the FED may have been overly precipitous and how it cut cut rates and then the other thing is they just do not like the long-term fiscal picture of the US one other chart we should bring up is interest on the national debt what you can see here is that it has gone absolutely parabolic in the last couple of years our interest on the debt what like 1.3 1.4 trillion a year 1.35 trillion run rate y $3,500 per American and it's something like 20 to 25% of federal revenue now so again the market is concerned that inflation is not whipped that the FED may have been overly precipitous and how it cut cut rates and then the other thing is they just do not like the long-term fiscal picture of the US one other chart we should bring up is interest on the national debt what you can see here is that it has gone absolutely parabolic in the last couple of years our interest on the debt what like 1.3 1.4 trillion a year 1.35 trillion run rate y $500 per American and it's something like 20 to 25% of federal revenue now so again the market is concerned that inflation is not whipped that the FED may have been overly precipitous and how it cut cut rates and then the other thing is they just do not like the long-term fiscal picture of the US one other chart we should bring up is interest on the national debt what you can see here is that it has gone absolutely parabolic in the last couple of years our interest on the debt what like 1.3 1.4 trillion a year 1.35 trillion run rate y $3,500 per American and it's something like 20 to 25% of federal revenue now so again the market is concerned that inflation is not whipped that the FED may have been overly precipitous and how it cut cut rates and then the other thing is they just do not like the long-term fiscal picture of the US one other chart we should bring up is interest on the national debt what you can see here is that it has gone absolutely parabolic in the last couple of years our interest on the debt what like 1.3 1.4 trillion a year 1.35 trillion run rate y $3500 per American and it's something like 20 to 25% of federal revenue now so again the market is concerned that inflation is not whipped that the FED may have been overly precipitous and how it cut cut rates and then the other thing is they just do not like the long-term fiscal picture of the US one other chart we should bring up is interest on the national debt what you can see here is that it has gone absolutely parabolic in the last couple of years our interest on the debt what like 1.3 1.4 trillion a year 1.35 trillion run rate y $3,500 per American and it's something like 20 to 25% of federal revenue now so again the market is concerned that inflation is not whipped that the FED may have been overly precipitous and how it cut cut rates and then the other thing is they just do not like the long-term fiscal picture of the US one other chart we should bring up is interest on the national debt what you can see here is that it has gone absolutely parabolic in the last couple of years our interest on the debt what like 1.3 1.4 trillion a year 1.35 trillion run rate y $3,500 per American and it's something like 20 to 25% of federal revenue now so again the market is concerned that inflation is not whipped that the FED may have been overly precipitous and how it cut cut rates and then the other thing is they just do not like the long-term fiscal picture of the US one other chart we should bring up is interest on the national debt what you can see here is that it has gone absolutely parabolic in the last couple of years our interest on the debt what like 1.3 1.4 trillion a year 1.35 trillion run rate yeah $3,500 per American and it's something like 20 to 25% of federal revenue thanks for watching please don't forget to subscribe for news and expert predictions direct to your inbox
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