저자: CloudAICrypto · 외국인
다듬은 글
Yeah. So, this is an important point. I would say right now it's a moving target. Meaning the sharps before liberation day, the smart money line was at like 250 billion. Okay. That's Wall Street. I mean, we'll put smart in quotes, but that was in. And part of why the stock market went berserk was they just got it totally wrong.
And the back of the envelope math that I did and that a couple of my friends did and you know I would say they're much smarter than I am. They got to 750. I got to 750 as well. Howard Lutnik who's a commerce secretary has said like anywhere approaching 750 we have a line of sight to be able to cut uh income taxes to zero for anybody making 150 or less.
Yeah. It'd be great. I mean so we're we're in the magic zone here guys. Chamoth Palahipia believes that when Bitcoin related US tax revenue hits $750 billion, it could unlock a wave of policy reform, possibly including the elimination of income taxes. This milestone could mark the end of market volatility and the start of a new era of growth and stability for Bitcoin.
Make sure to watch the rest of this video to hear more fascinating insights into Trump's tariff plan. Also, if you enjoy listening to cryptoreated content, please show your support by liking and subscribing to this channel by following the link in my bio and get access to my free daily crypto updates and expert predictions direct to your inbox.
Each newsletter contains onchain data, forecasts, and expert predictions. All of this is available free of charge. It only takes a moment to sign up and you can always change your mind later. Now, back over to Chamoth. So, here's the thing. America owes people a lot of money. Okay, we owe my gosh, I want to say maybe $35 trillion to other people.
Now, it's it's important to understand who are those other people and why did that happen? Yeah. So, let's just say the five of us are running America. you know, we all go off into our own separate rooms and, you know, we come back with a plan and Andrew, you're like, I want to spend a billion dollars on defense.
And then, you know, Marcus says, "I want to spend a billion dollars on healthcare." And I say, "I want to spend, you know, $2 billion on social security or whatever." And we tally it all up, right? And we're like, "Okay, to run America is going to cost $10 billion. How are we going to get that money?" And you know, ever since like 1913, it's a GoFundMe.
It's the the answer is we're going to go to all the individuals in the United States to pay for it. By the way, just so you guys know, before 1913, okay, we had 120 odd years where all of that money, that $10 billion, whatever that number was at the time, it was all generated via tariffs, okay? It was outside folks paying into to have the right to be in the United States.
Then we would take that money and we would pay for healthcare. We would pay for social security. We would pay for military. We do all that stuff. Okay. So anyways, fine. So here we are. But you add up all the amount of taxes we raise and it only is 8 billion. So what do you do? You go and you borrow from somebody who's willing to lend you 2 billion.
Right? So just to just to clarify like that borrowing doesn't necessarily mean a bank. People can buy bonds. they can buy these treasury bonds and isn't that similar thing. So what happens is okay we're like okay we need to come up with $2 billion where do we get it? So what happens is the United States Treasury is allowed by law to then go into the market.
Okay, I'll explain what that means in a second. And sell an IOU. Mhm. Hey, this this IOU is backed by the United States government. you know, full faith and fidelity of all of the assets that we own. Give me $2 billion. I'm gonna take it. I'm gonna fund this deficit and I'm going to spend my 10 billion this year.
We've been doing that basically forever. Add it all up now. We're at 30 some odd trillion dollar. Okay? Now, what is the problem with that? Well, that is a colossal interest rate payment. Imagine that you take out now a credit card every year, max it out. At some point, you know, you're going to have an enormous interest payment, right?
And that is dictated by the interest rate that is tied to the credit card that you have. It's the exact same thing for the United States government. We have 30 some odd trillion of debt and we have a really high APR. Yeah. Yeah, the APR is what right now? Well, I think the blended is I want to say like 56% let's say.
So, you know, you're talking trillions of dollars in interest. Okay, which is a problem. Um, so on top of that, these credit cards, assuming you have this credit card, it expires and you got to go and apply for a new one. Mhm. That's what So every year, so right now in this year, America has $6 trillion of credit that is expiring that we don't have the money to pay for.
So what do we need to do? We need to rebarorrow that money. So issue more bonds. So we have to we have to sell bonds. So who are the buyers? The buyers are all these people around the world. Central banks, pension plans, also us. Yeah. So no. So here's so yes but asterisk the thing that America is America again I go back to like we are the star of the show okay everybody is levered to the United States everybody what does that mean if you go to Japan Japan is way deeper in debt than we are they have two times as much debt as we do relative to our GDP relative to the amount of revenue that we make and you would say How's that possible?
When Japan finances their debt, the overwhelming majority of the people that are supporting Japan are the Japanese companies, Japanese pension funds, Japanese individuals, your mom, your dad, you know, buying the Japanese bonds. In America, it's not that. It's about a third are Americans, but twothirds are everywhere.
Okay? It's like the Saudi Aramco. It's Shell. It's Novartis. It's the Central Bank of Lutu. It's China. China owns almost a trillion dollars of our debt. So, so the whole point is if you can bring the cost of borrowing down. We save ourselves a lot of money. We make the headache much smaller. Now, here's a huge problem that happened at the end of Biden.
thing with Biden, just so you guys know, is, you know, this is a misnomer that, you know, Trump is, you know, for the wealthy. Um, I don't think that that's true. Um, you know, Trump is much more about MAGA, which is like workingass middle class. He's not about the mag seven. That's what Besson said, too.
You know, the stock market is a mag seven, magnificent 7 problem, not a MAGA problem. What does he mean by that? What he means is like 50% of Americans have zero equity exposure. Zero. This is what we talked about when I did your podcast and this was huge. Yeah. And so, you know, and 44% of it own like 12%.
So, for the most part, the American individual investor is not necessarily super exposed to equities. And so the thing that Biden did though is he had an incredibly aggressive program of keeping the stock market afloat. How do you do that? Okay. So like if you guys and I wanted to manipulate the stock market at the president of the United States, what could we do?
Keep money cheap. You would keep money cheap. You would which means just for everybody like making sure the the cost of taking out money like interest rates are low. Yeah. you you could interest rates were high during they they they were high but what what Janet Yellen did was as the interest rates came due in that period they massively just um refinance the debt and this is getting a little technical but um in very short periods of time.
So, when you when you go and refinance yourself, right? Like, if you go and refinance your home, you know, you could do a 10-year mortgage, you could do a 30-year mortgage. She did a 30-day to one-year mortgage. Okay? Why would you do that if it was cheaper, right? And you basically had more flexibility to just keep money in the system.
If you had, you know, all these $2 billion loans going out to all of your friends who would just like spend in all kinds of crazy ways. Everything looks like it's working. GDP looks like it's working. The stock market goes up because the earnings of these companies looks like it's working. And what's incredible is that problem is now coming home to roost now.
So Bessant has to refinance $6 trillion in the next 9 months. Okay. So this is like a not a small number, right? So all this debt that basically Yellen and Biden just kind of put on the front end, it's called the front end of the curve. these one-year maturities or whatever, they got to figure out how to push it out 10 years, 12 years, as far as possible.
And so that's going to be a very complicated task. And so they benefit from the lower interest rate. And to your point, what tariffs did was it shocked the stock market. And when that happened, it told the bond market, "Hey man, uh there's a lot of volatility and uncertainty here." It's like let's go to the sidelines for a little bit and just chill and observe what happens.
When that happens, the interest rates go down. And that allows us, Americans, all of us collectively, we will save hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars because of what has happened in the last 5 days. What is inflation? Okay, inflation means if you said inflation is I'll pick a number, 3%. What does that mean?
That means that if you and I bought those Jordans and they were 100 bucks next year, let's just use that for the purposes of this math or 103, right? They go up by 3%. Um, actually, let's use 10% cuz I'm bad at 3% math here. So, it's a 100 bucks, it goes to 110. Okay? The next year, it goes up by another 10%.
If inflation stays where it is, right now you add $11. Right? So now the shoes are 121. So in 2 years the price has gone from 100 to 121 for those Jordans, right? That's inflation. The next year it'll go up by another 10%. The next year it'll go up by 10. That's what inflation is. This is a price shock and that's different.
What do I mean? So if that Jordan has a 10% tariff on it, it goes from 100 to 110 one time. And if inflation and if inflation is otherwise zero or close to zero, it doesn't go up the next year by another 10 bucks and then another 10 bucks and another 10 bucks. That's not how tariffs work. It is how inflation works.
So, I think it's important to to to just make sure like are tariffs inflationary? They can be, but not necessarily. But if we import most of our products and we're applying tariffs to almost all the products we import, then that's going to be a huge price increase for pretty much all the goods that we buy.
But it's not correlated to the cost of the actual goods sold. Like the reason inflation happens is oh the price of oil goes up so it's more expensive to run the factory so then the goods become nothing changed to make your shoe nothing it's just that when it landed in the port of LA there was used to be a piece of paper that you would stamp that said 0% now the thing is stamped and it says 10%.
The actual cost of making this thing has not gone up. Yeah, but Nike is going to apply that techni past. Yeah. He's not saying that the He's not saying that the cost doesn't get passed on. So in let's say it's a one time pass. So let's say in the first year it's going to hurt tremendously. Yeah. Yeah.
No, nobody's saying that it won't hurt. But why? It's different than inflation. So in the first year it would feel identical to inflation. In the second year it would stay the same whereas in the second year with inflation it would continue at that rate. Yeah. And I guess what I'm saying is I'm just concerned about the people who are barely getting by and now going to be more 100%.
But but here's here's what they said which is I think you want to see this happen. What they said is there's going to be these price shocks. You're right. So year one is difficult. Okay. But it could raise upwards of $750 billion a year. Okay. You're saying tariffs. Tariffs. What they said that they would do is they would then turn around and cut the federal uh income tax.
Income tax. Yeah. For anybody making 150,000 or less to zero. Thanks for watching. Don't forget to subscribe to access my free daily crypto updates and expert predictions direct to your inbox.
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