저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
저금리 장기화로 자산 기대수익률은 낮고 위험은 높은 '저수익·고위험 세계'라는 결론. 저금리 10여 년이 할인율을 낮춰 기업가치와 자산가격을 밀어 올렸고, 낙관·위험선호·회의주의 약화가 자산가격 상승을 이끌었으나 이것이 세상을 더 안전하게 만들지는 않는다고 주장. 환경 지표로 경기회복 10년째, 역사상 가장 긴 강세장, FAANG 강세, 기업대출 수요, 신흥국 채권 자금 유입, 사모펀드 기록적 모금, 기술·VC 자금 유입, 암호화폐 관심 등을 제시. 위험-수익 관계: 위험자산이 고수익을 보장하지 않으며, 위험자산은 고수익을 '보이는' 것일 뿐 '전달'하지 않는다고 강조. 무위험금리(국채) 하락에 따라 모든 자산의 요구수익률이 동반 하락함. 연기금·보험 등은 안전자산 수익률이 2~4%에 그쳐 7~8% 목표 달성이 어려워 위험자산으로 자금이 몰림. 자산별 자금 쏠림으로 '경쟁적 저수익 수용(race to the bottom)'이 진행 중이며 '너무 많은 돈이 너무 적은 딜을 쫓는다'는 상황이 문제라고 지적. 높은 위험조정수익은 다른 사람들이 꺼리는 일을 할 때 가능하다고 조언(1978년 하이일드, 1988년 부실채권 펀드 사례). 자산가격은 높고 위험프리미엄은 낮으며 시장은 위험하다는 것이 최근 10년의 결과라는 결론. 특정 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
what has been the dominant characteristic of the financial environment over the last 10 years and the answer is low interest rates generally speaking I mean the all-time lows of interest rates were hit during that period and interest rates while having been raised in recent years are still extremely low the effect the impacts of that is to raise Davout the discounted cash flow of most businesses to increase the value of businesses to provide a wind at the back of many businesses to encourage economic results all those things that's why the central banks of the world lowered interest rates ten plus years ago to fight the global financial crisis and of course it did work but that has left us with an investment Virant characterized by low interest rates and that's the reason for talking about them today so I've been saying for some time I still believe that today the uncertainties are unusual in terms of number scale and insolubility things like geopolitics etc the prospective returns in many asset classes are historically low because of the low interest rate environment asset prices range from full to high depending on which asset category you're talking about and pro risk behavior is widespread they taught me at Chicago 50 odd years about go about the importance of risk aversion in terms of causing the positive correlation between risk and return and that when people are risk-averse they'll do thorough due diligence and the market will be a safe place but sometimes they forget to do that they engage in pro risk behavior and the environment it becomes more risky the bottom line I think has been and is that we're living in a low return high risk world some of the environmental indicators over the last couple of years include the tenth year of an economic recovery the longest bull market in history the ascendance super the fangs strong demand for corporate credit money flows into emerging market debt record fundraising for private equity the onrush of capital for tech and VC investing and interest in crypto currencies and I think that these are the important hallmarks of the last couple years and what do they mean we were talking about that before right what does it mean what it means to me is that the markets over the recent years have been shaped by optimism trust in the future faith in investing and investors a low level of skepticism and risk tolerance not risk aversion so the first question is do you agree you should ask yourselves this guy know what he's talking about or is the exaggerating risk has he left out a bunch of things to color his presentation these are the things that I think are reflected in these things these things have to be present for these things to happen in my opinion the point my point is that attributes like these do not contribute to a positive climate for prospective returns and risk the increase of optimism the increase in risk tolerance the low level of skepticism contribute to asset appreciation but of course that asset appreciation does not render the world safer we have to be cognizant of that why our prospective returns low the again at Chicago it all starts here at Chicago for me back in 67 and I learned about the capital market line and it begins over at the left with the risk-free rate with zero risk and it proceeds up into the right to offer investors a potential risk premium as an incentive for barring incremental risk that's how the market works now I'm gonna take a minute out since I think I have plenty of time today to say you asked most people what does this slide mean think about it for a minute ask yourself what does this slide mean okay times up what most people would say in my opinion is two things number one riskier assets have higher returns and number two if you want to make more money the way to do it is to take more risk everybody agree I don't get any agreement okay and I think that both of those are terrible formulations for the simple reason that if riskier assets could be counted on for higher returns by definition they wouldn't be riskier so that's a fallacy and if you are guilty of that fallacy or have been consciously or unconsciously guilty of that fallacy I think you should check your reasoning riskier assets cannot be counted on for higher returns in my opinion what this relationship means is different what it means is that assets that appear riskier have to appear to offer higher returns they don't have to deliver so the important thing is to keep that distinction in mind but anyway most of the time the market does look like this the you no longer bonds have higher yields than shorter bonds low quality bonds have higher yields than safe bonds stocks have higher expected returns than high quality bonds and alternative investments offer higher returns than equities they merely don't have to deliver so we get a dialogue and it goes like this and let's go back 20 years to 1999 I wrote a memo about this back in O 4 I'm still quoting from it I've gotten a lot of mileage from it it's called risk and return today and what I observed in O 4 is back in in force today I believe so people would say well I can get percent with no risk in t-bills if I'm gonna buy the five-year Treasury and tie up my money for five years I need 5% if I'm gonna buy the 10-year I need 6% if I can get 6% with no risk in a ten-year Treasury I need a hundred basis points more to buy corporates with credit risk so that's seven if I can get six in ten year Treasuries I need I'm not gonna go into high-yield unless I can get eleven and that's the fixed income world and if I can get those kind of returns on fixed income I'm not gonna buy quality stocks unless I think they'll return nine Nasdaq I need ten and by the way if I can get those returns from public securities I'm not gonna buy I'm not gonna develop real estate unless I think I can get make 14 or go into public private equity unless I think I can make twenty or venture capital unless I can think I can make thirty so all along the line you get people saying in order to take incremental risk I need the expectation of incremental return nothing could make more sense and that is the way the world was back in 1999 then we had this thing called the global financial crisis and the central banks pulled down the risk-free rate from 4 in 99 to about zero in some countries of course short-term rates went negative in order to stimulate economies recapitalize financial institutions and when the risk-free rate was pulled down to zero everything else followed and now it goes like well if I if the return on cash is zero I'm not gonna tie my money up my money up for five years unless I can get one ten years I gotta have one and a half and so forth I'm not gonna I wouldn't buy high grades unless they paid three I wouldn't buy high yield unless it paid six and so forth so you can see that the demanded returns all all investing is relative the decisions are relative decisions and so all of the decisions are still in relative terms but taking place at lower levels in terms of prospective returns so this is the the reason why prospective returns are low today and this is of course as I say I think the most important single characteristic of the financial environment over the last decade well now investors in many markets have taken on increased risk in order to access returns above those on safe assets so the person who used like me all the money I had you know six seven I was concerned about the environment so I took all the money that I had outside of oaktree and I put it into Treasuries one two three four five six year Treasuries it's called the latter portfolio for those of you who are in the bond business and it is the dumbest form of investing known to man you have this progression of year of maturities the the closest in one matures it goes to the back of the line you always have a portfolio which has one two three four five six year maturities you always have some money coming due within a few months and you know you can't make much but you can't lose and the yield on that portfolio was over six back in oh seven and of course today it would be over two so you know Pete most people you know I meet with pension funds and endowments and insurance companies and they can't invest for two three four percent many of them need seven or eight so that means you can't do much in the low return safe assets that you used to invest in so people have had to push out the capital market line in pursuit of tolerable returns in a low return world that has caused there to be a lot of money chasing limited opportunities in the risk markets the safe closed end markets the government bond market high-grade bond market even the stock market are by definition much larger than the alternative markets of real estate private equity venture capital and so forth and and and even private credit and so you've had a lot of money moving from the safe asset classes to the risk asset classes and when a lot of money hits a small asset class we know what happens and I believe that as a result of the demand for returns well let me say this you know 7 February oh seven I wrote a memo called the race to the bottom and I talked I said in there that the market for for buying investments or making loans is like an auction house and when something when an opportunity goes up at an auction house it goes to the person the highest bidder the highest bidder is by definition the person who was willing to accept the least for his money and the same is true of the securities markets I want to buy some stock I want to pay thirty to Josh says you'll buy it at thirty two and a quarter and and Tom says he'll pay thirty two and a half I don't get any Tom gets the stock he's the highest bidder but of course he gets a worse deal than I would have got at thirty two but if he makes the investment the trouble is that when there's a lot of money in investors hands and they're hot to trot to put it to work then the bidding maybe goes too far and in the credit markets people bid up the price which means they bid down the yield and they bid down the safety that's the way the auction goes and I believe that the race to the bottom has been under way in the credit markets and it is to say investors are competing for the limited opportunities in the risk markets by volunteering for low returns weak structures and high risk again next question do you agree or do you not agree that's as we go along that's that's a question that you should all be asking so I believe that we have seen over the last few years what I call the seven worst words in the world too much money chasing too few deals and that was the title of my September memo the seven worst words in the world when that's going on is that going on do you think it's been going on when it's going on it's troublesome and you should recognize it and act accordingly how our return high returns achieved high risk adjusted returns how do you get high returns with low risk the answer in my experience is investors make money most safely and most easily when they do things that other people are unwilling to do that's the history of my career I started city banks high-yield bond portfolios in 1978 when nobody else would do it and it was considered unfair ii and imprudent to buy an investment grade bond we started the distressed debt fund at the TCW in 1988 when people said are you crazy you're gonna buy the debt of bankrupt companies how can that end nobody else would do it that's how you get bargains when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments or worried but investing anyway because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing which is more descriptive of the last ten years asset prices will be high risk premiums will be low and markets will be risky that's the result of too much money and Eaton investors who are too eager
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