원문 보기
is there is there an older maxim on wall street than don't fight the fed is is it time to fight the fed and what would that even mean uh given that even if they're talking tough they may not have too much more to do well i think you hit it there i mean let's not take chairman powell's words as as gospel because here's a man who as we all know a year ago stood at the same podium and said inflation was not a problem uh here's a man who in congressional testimony told us we don't think money matters our studies have some money doesn't matter then it proceeded to explode the money supply at the greatest rate in our history here's a man a year ago who said we're not even thinking about thinking about raising interest rates and and most troubling was in in response to the last four m fomc meetings in the q a period he was asked is always a policy going to cause a recession he said no we're just going to reduce the number of job openings you know to to bring them into balance with the the demand now what has happened in the last three or four weeks um actually in the last month and this is an interesting fact 90 of the price indices that have been released have been below market expectations so he suddenly acts as if things got a lot worse well what is he looking at did he tell us what is his guidelines now for bringing inflation down uh is he looking at sensitive commodity prices is he looking on the ground prices um i i i just found it a very unsatisfactory uh description uh almost like yeah we messed up we're way too loose and now we're gonna be mr tough guy okay and and and but where is the hard evidence well but but in fairness uh jeremy he has always said that there was a risk that a soft landing was not going to be the outcome he used the term soft-ish so that was never a promise they've been acting as if they have a sole mandate which is to get inflation down they also for months have been saying it would require a few months of persuasive evidence of declining inflation we haven't had a few months of declining headline or core inflation yet so i guess the point is maybe all he wanted to do on friday was to make sure the market didn't get get out ahead of that in a way that loosened financial conditions enough that their job becomes more difficult afterwards yeah he never you're absolutely right never he never promised it and we can debate about whether it's possible or not but he did use it where there's going to be you know pain for the consumer for the worker like now we're really going to raise unemployment never made those terms before um listen you know the inflation is eaten away at american savings it's eating away at the real wages and now you know because of the mistakes that the fed made in my opinion bad mistakes we're not going to cause you some more unemployment um you know yeah okay uh i understand that on the ground uh not the official statistics on the ground prices have slowed dramatically and i would like him to acknowledge that we're looking at some forward-looking indicators rather than not even specific specifying which indicators he's looking at now you're right we didn't he wouldn't want to say we're ready to pivot and then we would go to you know go to the races again but but mike you know i you know i looked at the money supply because that would that told us how much inflation we're gonna get uh we've had a decline over the last four months there's only been one or two other occasions in the last 75 years where we have restricted liquidity this greatly so there is look at the strength of the dollar uh you know what we see on the ground on sensitive commodity prices real estate prices on the ground are not going up again money supply is tight um you know my feeling is he has a hundred basis points to go and now he's and and and that they will ease next year um you know to sort of tell us we're going to have to have more pain to me was a far too negative uh uh message and honestly his forecasting ability has uh i mean lost my credibility and i don't i don't know about the street um is he going to make a mistake by tightening too much now he did mention monetary policy works with the lag if he waits for the official statistics to really start coming down to two percent he will over tighten and he'll make the same mistake on the downside as he made on being too slow on restricting liquidity in 2020 uh one in early 2022. so i mean that that is basically what what my concerns are
Comments 0