저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 시겔 교수는 파월 연준의 강경 긴축 발언을 과신하지 말아야 하며, 연준이 물가 하락을 기다리다 과도하게 긴축해 정책 실수를 할 수 있다고 우려한다. 파월 발언 신뢰도 비판: 시겔은 1년 전 파월이 인플레이션은 문제가 아니라고 했고, 의회 증언에서 통화량은 중요하지 않다고 했으며, 이후 역사상 최대 수준으로 통화량을 늘렸다고 지적한다. 최근 물가 지표: 최근 한 달간 발표된 물가지수의 약 90%가 시장 예상치를 밑돌았으며, 현장 가격(민감 원자재, 부동산)은 다시 오르지 않고 있다고 진단한다. 통화량과 달러: 최근 4개월간 통화량이 감소했고, 과거 75년간 유동성을 이만큼 강하게 제한한 경우는 한두 번뿐이었다. 달러 강세도 긴축 효과를 보여준다. 금리 전망: 연준이 약 100bp(1%p) 더 올릴 여지가 있으며, 내년에는 금리를 인하(완화)할 것으로 본다. 연준 정책 리스크: 파월이 통화정책은 시차(lag)를 두고 작동한다고 했지만, 공식 통계가 2%까지 내려오기를 기다리면 과도한 긴축을 하게 되고, 2020년 유동성 공급이 늦었던 것과 2022년 초 대응이 늦었던 것의 반대 실수를 저지를 수 있다. 소프트랜딩 논쟁: 파월은 소프트랜딩이 확실하지 않다고 했을 뿐 약속한 적은 없으며, 연준은 물가 하락 근거가 수개월 쌓일 때까지 기다릴 것이라고 말해 왔다. 그러나 헤드라인·코어 물가가 아직 수개월 연속 하락하지 않았다는 점을 짚는다. 고용·실질임금: 인플레이션이 미국인의 저축과 실질임금을 잠식하고 있으며, 연준의 실수로 인해 실업률 상승 같은 추가 고통이 생길 수 있다고 우려한다. 자산 관련 발언: 특정 종목 언급은 없으며, 주식시장에 대한 직접적 방향 예측 발언도 명확하지 않다. 금리 방향(미국채 10년 금리) 관련으로는 단기 추가 인상 여지 후 내년 인하 전망이 나온다. 출연자 전망: 시겔은 연준이 과도하게 긴축할 위험을 가장 큰 우려로 제시하며, 자신의 연준 예측 신뢰도가 떨어졌다고 인정한다.
다듬은 글
is there is there an older maxim on wall street than don't fight the fed is is it time to fight the fed and what would that even mean uh given that even if they're talking tough they may not have too much more to do well i think you hit it there i mean let's not take chairman powell's words as as gospel because here's a man who as we all know a year ago stood at the same podium and said inflation was not a problem uh here's a man who in congressional testimony told us we don't think money matters our studies have some money doesn't matter then it proceeded to explode the money supply at the greatest rate in our history here's a man a year ago who said we're not even thinking about thinking about raising interest rates and and most troubling was in in response to the last four m fomc meetings in the q a period he was asked is always a policy going to cause a recession he said no we're just going to reduce the number of job openings you know to to bring them into balance with the the demand now what has happened in the last three or four weeks um actually in the last month and this is an interesting fact 90 of the price indices that have been released have been below market expectations so he suddenly acts as if things got a lot worse well what is he looking at did he tell us what is his guidelines now for bringing inflation down uh is he looking at sensitive commodity prices is he looking on the ground prices um i i i just found it a very unsatisfactory uh description uh almost like yeah we messed up we're way too loose and now we're gonna be mr tough guy okay and and and but where is the hard evidence well but but in fairness uh jeremy he has always said that there was a risk that a soft landing was not going to be the outcome he used the term soft-ish so that was never a promise they've been acting as if they have a sole mandate which is to get inflation down they also for months have been saying it would require a few months of persuasive evidence of declining inflation we haven't had a few months of declining headline or core inflation yet so i guess the point is maybe all he wanted to do on friday was to make sure the market didn't get get out ahead of that in a way that loosened financial conditions enough that their job becomes more difficult afterwards yeah he never you're absolutely right never he never promised it and we can debate about whether it's possible or not but he did use it where there's going to be you know pain for the consumer for the worker like now we're really going to raise unemployment never made those terms before um listen you know the inflation is eaten away at american savings it's eating away at the real wages and now you know because of the mistakes that the fed made in my opinion bad mistakes we're not going to cause you some more unemployment um you know yeah okay uh i understand that on the ground uh not the official statistics on the ground prices have slowed dramatically and i would like him to acknowledge that we're looking at some forward-looking indicators rather than not even specific specifying which indicators he's looking at now you're right we didn't he wouldn't want to say we're ready to pivot and then we would go to you know go to the races again but but mike you know i you know i looked at the money supply because that would that told us how much inflation we're gonna get uh we've had a decline over the last four months there's only been one or two other occasions in the last 75 years where we have restricted liquidity this greatly so there is look at the strength of the dollar uh you know what we see on the ground on sensitive commodity prices real estate prices on the ground are not going up again money supply is tight um you know my feeling is he has a hundred basis points to go and now he's and and and that they will ease next year um you know to sort of tell us we're going to have to have more pain to me was a far too negative uh uh message and honestly his forecasting ability has uh i mean lost my credibility and i don't i don't know about the street um is he going to make a mistake by tightening too much now he did mention monetary policy works with the lag if he waits for the official statistics to really start coming down to two percent he will over tighten and he'll make the same mistake on the downside as he made on being too slow on restricting liquidity in 2020 uh one in early 2022. so i mean that that is basically what what my concerns are
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