Fisher Investments Founder Ken Fisher Debunks: Bonds Are Safer Than Stocks

요약 보기

결론: 장기 투자에서는 주식이 채권보다 안전하고 수익도 더 일관적이라는 것이 영상의 핵심 주장이다. 단기(약 3년 이하) 롤링 기간에서는 채권이 주식보다 덜 위험하다는 점을 먼저 인정한다. 이는 단기 채권이 주식보다 안정적이라는 의미다. 기간을 늘리면 상황이 달라진다. 3년, 5년, 10년, 15년, 20년, 30년 롤링 기간으로 갈수록 주식이 채권보다 점점 안전해진다고 설명한다. 역사적으로 채권 수익률과 주식 수익률의 장기 흐름을 비교한 결과다. 인플레이션 구간에 대한 경고가 있다. 인플레이션이 일시적이지 않고 지속되면 금리가 올라 채권 가격이 하락하고 채권의 총수익이 마이너스가 될 수 있다. 1925~1980년 사이 대부분의 해에 주식은 상승했지만 채권은 특히 인플레이션 조정 기준으로 마이너스 수익을 낸 경우가 많았다고 언급한다. 현재 인플레이션 수치가 미국 10년물 국채 금리(약 3%)보다 높다는 점을 근거로 금리 상승과 채권 가격 하락 가능성을 시사한다. 주식이 인플레이션 충격을 흡수하는 방식도 설명한다. 기업은 시간이 지나면서 변화에 적응하고, 그 과정에서 단기 변동성은 있지만 장기 수익으로 이어진다는 논리다. 투자 기간에 대한 조언도 한다. 대부분의 사람은 노후 생활을 위해 투자하며 실제 수명은 예상보다 길어지는 경향이 있으므로, 장기 시계로 보면 주식이 더 일관된 높은 수익을 낸다고 강조한다. 주식을 단기 베팅 수단으로 쓰는 것은 적절하지 않다는 입장이다. 리스크 측면에서는 단기 변동성과 인플레이션 장기화 시 채권 손실 가능성을 주요 위험으로 본다. 특정 개별 종목에 대한 언급은 없다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. most people tell you conventional wisdom says and it's not true that bonds are safer than stocks that's only true if you're thinking of shortterm if you're investing in stocks and you're thinking of shortterm you might as well be thinking of Las Vegas the fact is stocks shouldn't be used as short-term bets stocks are about a longer term vision of capturing the benefits of capitalism as it morphs its way through problems to a better material outcome for people globally pretty simple concept a concept not so readily embraced Always by everyone if we look historically a very long history of bond returns parallel very long history of stock returns and we can see that the longer you look at rolling time periods the more it becomes true that stocks are safer than bonds now let me step back back from that for a second if you look at rolling 20-year periods because you're 50 years old and you expect to live at least until you're 70 it becomes overwhelming if you actually thought you'd live until you were 80 and look at rolling 30-year periods it's absolute if you look instead just at rolling three-year periods it's mostly true that stocks are less risky than bonds what people forget is and they forget it this year is that when you have Rising inflation bond prices tend to fall reducing the total return and making the total return on bonds negative which is what's happened so far this year this year stocks have gone down more but what people Miss is that if inflation is not somewhat transitory and Remains the inflation numbers that we're seeing now are very high relative to a 3% US Government 10year Bond rate and to the extent that's true you would expect to see bond pric is going up excuse me bond prices falling interest rates going up and as that would happen sequentially negative Bond returns and if you look at the longer term history let's say from 1925 to 1980 you had overwhelmingly most years where stocks Rose 2/3 plus of the time while most years bonds generated negative returns and particularly negative returns inflation adjusted that inflation effect directly impacting bond prices is one where in a period where rates are going up because inflation is pulling them up does not get incorporated into a positive impact for bonds the way it does for stocks because stocks reflect businesses morphing to adapt to the changes that they are confronted with over time albeit not necessarily immediately and with interim disruptions that you could otherwise call volatility so I want to reiterate in the short term bonds very short term bonds are safer than stocks but in the longer term as you move out three 5 10 15 20 30y year Rolling periods stocks get increasingly safer than bonds starting with three-year Returns on average and as that becomes true you say to yourself how long are you holding these Investments for and why what's your investment time Horizon and I think very few people other than their jitteriness actually have short-term time Horizons almost everyone that I talk to when I ask them what's the primary purpose of your money what are you investing for why you doing it in the first place they're thinking of their longer term future the most common phrase I ever hear is well the purpose of my money is to take care of me and my spouse the rest of our lives maybe leave some money to offspring maybe leave some money to to charity uh we've got some other interests that we want but it's to take care of ourselves over the longer term and then you ask well so how how long do you think you're going to live and they tell you and you know the reality is most people live a little longer than they think they're going to obviously not everyone but most people do people who get up into the ages of 50 and 60 and 70 tend to live longer than they think they will uh longer than they thought they would if they approached those ages partially because medical improvements keep helping them live longer but in all of that if you have a longer term time Horizon and you've got a longer term investment program stocks actually end up being more consistent generating higher returns bonds actually end up being riskier