Fisher Investments' Founder Ken Fisher Shares His Fixed Income Outlook

요약 보기

결론: 채권시장은 올해 유난히 부진했지만, 장기 인플레이션 기대가 안정적이라 장기채 금리는 향후 비교적 안정될 것으로 본다. 단기 금리(연준 등 중앙은행 통제)와 장기 금리(자유시장 결정)가 모두 올해 부진했다. 장기 금리는 장기 인플레이션 기대에 크게 좌우된다. 2022년 상반기 채권 총수익이 매우 낮았고, 인플레이션이 상승해 연율 약 10%에 근접했다. 그러나 2월 이후 장기채 금리는 3% 위로 지속되지 못했고, 발언 시점 약 2.95% 수준이었다. 시장이 이 인플레이션을 지속 가능하지 않다고 보는 것으로 해석한다. 인플레이션은 '일시적(transitory)'이라는 견해다. 다만 얼마나 일시적인지는 누구도 알 수 없다고 인정한다. 물가 상승은 통화 증발보다 공급망 문제가 더 크다고 본다. 돈은 인쇄되기보다 대부분 '창출'된다는 점을 짚는다. 기업들이 공급망 문제를 최대한 해결하고 있어, 앞으로 18개월 내 문제들이 해소되고 장기 금리는 비교적 온건할 것으로 기대한다. 단기 금리는 연준이 올릴 것이 확실하지만, 인상 폭은 시장 추정치가 크게 흔들리므로 신뢰하기 어렵다고 본다. 금리 인상은 비교적 빨리 끝날 것으로 예상한다. 인플레이션이 완화되면 장기채는 안정적이고 온건한 흐름을 보일 것이라고 전망한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. this year more than most because bonds have started off with such low total returns in the first half of the year people have wanted to have a sense of where fixed income might go i'm just going to say that fixed income markets are actually relatively more efficient by nature than let's say stock markets that have many more variables that affect them when we look at fixed income there's some part of it the short end that's controlled by the fed or the central bank of whatever country you're in and the long end that's nudged by central banks that's really controlled by free markets and both have been ugly this year the reality of that however i think needs to be put into a different context which is that the long end is hugely impacted by what happens over the long term with inflation intuitively lenders expect to be compensated for inflation risks when they make longer-term loans and so the more they expect inflation to be high over the time of a loan that they make the more they would demand in interest payments for making that loan or they wouldn't be willing to make the loan in many ways it's just an interesting fact that with inflation having risen in the first half of the year sequentially over time and ending the period at levels that get close to an approximating 10 percent annual rates that for months now since february you haven't been able to get the long bond to sustain at a rate above three percent and as i speak currently uh at about 2.95 what does that mean in my view in my view that means that the markets actually analyze this and look at this and do not believe that this inflationary period is sustainable in the longer term that this inflation is in fact transitory it's just a question of what transitory really means how long is transitory i don't really know the answer to that and neither do you but what i believe to be true is that much more of what's going on with prices is about all of the supply chain issues that have been working their way through the if you will gut of the economy then they are traditional concepts of printing or creating too much money money isn't really much printed it's mostly created which is a different thing the printing concept is a false phraseology since not very many people use paper money anyway anymore but the reality is in my view that the supply chain problems with time will be worked through every major corporation in the world is as much as they can be on that right now and there's not a lot of reason for new dislocations to occur moving forward so i would expect that when we look over the next 18 months we see the surpri problems go away and the long end to be fairly benign the question that no one can really control is what happens on the short end with central banks the fed in america in particular focusing on raising rates and there's no question those rates are going to go up in the short term the central bank has been relatively clear about that what isn't clear for sure is how much there are always and you can find these online estimates and betting markets on how much they will raise rates were not and in reality when you look over time those numbers bounce around quite wildly you can't really take them as some real valid indication of what will occur i expect the rates to increase but that to be over fairly soon i expect the inflation to moderate i don't exactly know when but as that happens we should expect to see a relatively stable and slightly benign long bond and to see this period of ugliness in the long bond end