원문 보기
hello. I am a rich older brother. With the US stock market fluctuating these days, it seems like triple leverage is getting a lot of flak . It seems like only the negative aspects are being highlighted, so I thought I would take some time to summarize the strengths and weaknesses . To state the facts, it is true that TQQ, which has three times the leverage of the Nasdaq, was actually cut in half over the past two months.
QQQ, a stock, fell by only about 17% during the same period. SPY, which tracks the SMP 500, only dropped 14%. Microsoft fell by only 11% . Apple fell quite a bit, but even so, it didn't drop by even 20% . So, it is certainly true that triple leverage results in very large losses in a bear market . You cannot deny that fact.
But that’s not all. There are definitely advantages as well . It means that not everyone investing in TQQQ is a fool. They invest because there are advantages that more than offset these disadvantages. From April 19 to June 17, 2024, TQQ rose by 55% over a period of approximately two months. Well, that gets sorted out right away.
So , basically, this 3x leveraged TQQ is a stock that could be cut in half or rise by more than 50% in two months . Basically, the volatility itself is very high. If you look at this period alone, everyone investing in other stocks becomes a fool. While TQ made a 55% profit, SPY only made a 10% profit .
Microsoft only made a 12% profit, and QQ only 17% . Even the great Apple only made a profit of a mere 31% . It’s a meager return compared to 55% . So, based solely on this two-month period, does that mean TQQQ is guaranteed to be a massive hit and SPY is just trash? That's not true. A 10% return over two months is also a very good achievement.
It's just a characteristic of the product. So, despite these significant advantages, why are people so negative about triple leverage ? Uh, I think the psychology of loss aversion probably came into play. Psychologists and behavioral economists have actually analyzed human psychology and found that most people tend to value what they lose more highly than what they gain .
For example, the sense of loss I feel when I lose 10,000 won is much greater than the happiness I feel when I gain 10,000 won. There are also experimental results showing that the emotional difference is about twofold, but this would vary from person to person. Well, some people might feel it five times louder, while others might feel it about the same .
However, generally speaking, when I conducted experiments, people perceived the value of what they lost as greater than the value of what they gained, by about double . Now, if we apply this directly to stocks, TQQ made a 55% profit over these two months, but the fear of the sense of loss from the 50% loss over those two months was probably much greater than this joy.
So, I think triple leverage is getting a lot of criticism these days in particular . In particular, since TQQ and SXL are stocks attracting such high interest, it seems people are making a lot of profit from them. Personally, I like TQQ the most among triple leverage . If you look at my actual account, which I started investing in July 2022, the TQ return is still over 100%.
Of course, I am seeing a -15% loss, but it ’s hard to say I’ve completely failed at that level. Even Apple, the world's giant, dropped 20% in just two months, so it would be hard to say that it has failed just because it is down 15% . But there is something strange. Clearly, my account currently shows a 104% profit, but when I look at the chart, it's only a 35% increase.
Why did the results turn out differently? This is because I purchased in installments rather than as a lump sum . And the more important fact is that people bought a lot when stock prices fell significantly and were in a panic, and hardly bought at all when they rose significantly. That is why the average purchase price could be low, and a decent profit could be made .
If you had invested in QQQ, SPY, Apple, and Microsoft, which are said to be so stable, you would not have been able to make a 100% return even if you had gone all-in at the lowest point . Here, an important characteristic of leverage emerges. Leverage is basically a type of investment that seeks higher returns than one bar by utilizing volatility .
To make a lot of profit, the stock price has to fall that much . And you need to buy when it has dropped significantly . If there is no volatility, there is no profit. If the volatility is only 1%, you can't make a profit of more than 1% . Since half-commuting happens so often, you can frequently make a profit of over 100% .
But what's even funnier is that even if you invested in a lump sum without splitting your purchases, the return on TQQQ is n't bad. Even with a fixed-term investment, a 35% profit was made, whereas during the same period, Microsoft yielded 31%, SPY 27%, and Apple only 21% . Even QQQ, which is a 1x leveraged stock, yielded a 40% profit, but since I actually bought in installments rather than as a lump sum, I am currently making a higher profit than any other 1x leveraged stock.
This is a fact. So, basically, the essence of leverage is to pursue higher returns than a one-fold investment by utilizing volatility. The fact that it drops sharply in the short term—which many people consider a fatal flaw—is actually the key secret to making a profit is the very thing. If it does n't drop this much, you ca n't make a lot of profit.
Because it has the characteristic of falling significantly in a short period, it also simultaneously has the characteristic of rising significantly in a short period . If you make good use of these characteristics, you can generate a surprisingly substantial profit . Now, in order to do so, periodic crashes must occur, and these crashes must be used as opportunities to buy at the bottom.
The best remedy is actually this. It involves going all-in at the peak and then just sitting still when it crashes. In fact, most people end up failing because they invest like this. With triple leverage, you should never go all-in; instead, you should be cautious when the stock price is high, and get greedy when the price is low and everyone says they are going to lose .
To do so, you must have ample cash on hand . You need the courage to buy out of fear. Actually, even now, instead of saying it’s a failure, if you think about it the other way, a good opportunity is coming your way . You can buy this good stock at half the price compared to two months ago . If it gets cut in half again here, it would be better because we can lower the average unit price and increase the quantity .
Of course, for those who went all-in at the peak, this must be incredibly painful, but we didn't invest like that . If you understand the characteristics of the stock well and invest properly, there is nothing as attractive as this, so I simply cannot understand why everyone says they fail . Is a knife a dangerous weapon?
Or is it a great cooking tool? The answer may vary depending on who uses it and how . So, is a stock with 3x leverage a risky one? Or is it an attractive stock capable of generating high returns ? I believe the answer will vary depending on who invests and how . Okay, then that's all for today's video .
댓글 0