Buffett's Japanese stock purchases could indicate a bigger plan, says Mobius Capital's Mark Mobius

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버핏의 일본 상사 투자는 PER이 낮고 배당수익률이 2~3%인 매력이 있으나, 2000년 이후 주가가 100% 넘게 올라 고점 매수일 수 있다고 봄. 버핏은 더 큰 계획(에너지·원자재 등)을 준비 중일 수 있으며, 엔화 채권 발행 등도 변수라고 언급. 일본 상사들은 원자재 외에도 소비재·제조 등 전 세계 사업을 하므로 원자재 노출은 일부에 불과하다고 설명. 이머징 마켓은 최근 수년간 미국 시장에 뒤처졌으나, 중국 비중(약 30%)이 큰 MSCI 이머징 지수가 S&P를 따라잡기 시작했고 향후 아웃퍼폼할 것으로 전망. 중국은 M2가 확장 중이고 정부가 경기 부양과 외資 유치에 공격적이며, 로컬 투자자 참여가 늘어 시장이 좋아지고 있다고 봄. 다만 통계 신뢰성에는 주의가 필요하다고 언급. 중국 인플레이션 지표가 약한 점은 언급됨. 대만은 중국과 교역이 매우 크고 상호 의존적이며, 미국 제재로 대중 출하에 주의가 필요하지만 관계는 여전히 양호하다고 봄. 대만은 포트폴리오 최대 국가 비중(약 20%)이며, 반도체 소프트웨어·장비 등 TSMC 관련 기업들이 저평가 상태에서 고성장 잠재력이 있어 핵심 보유 이유라고 설명.

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01. joining me now is Mark Mobius founding partner at Mobius Capital Partners Mark it's good to see you again welcome back thank you good what do you agree and we should mention by the way this isn't just a one-off by Buffett he's going to be on Squawk Box from Japan tomorrow morning this is a big play for him why do you think that is well if you look at the numbers the PE ratios of these Japanese trading companies are low they're single digits so that's number one attractive number two they do pay dividends two three percent dividend yields uh but as I been looking at these charts wow uh these are up in the since 2000 about 100 plus percent so it looks like you know he's buying at the top but I think he's got a bigger fish to fry I think he's got plans for something else and he's already mentioned that he's planning some big deal which may need the help of these Japanese trading companies so I think that's another complex aspect to look at also he's floating uh Yen bonds or Berkshire Hathaway which is another factor which may impact what he's doing in the stock market so it's it's a number of things happening here but I found not be involved in buying these companies the return on capital is not high but the peas are low but at the prices have just gone up too much I believe is it possible though that they make sense as a Commodities play if you were bullish as we know he is for instance uh energy is one of the only places in the U.S he's pretty active right now yes a very good point but remember these companies are not only in Commodities they're a bunch of other things they're all over the world in consumer products and Manufacturing all kinds of things so yeah that may be a cons something to do with commodities but uh it's probably some fraction of what they're actually doing in their businesses sure all right so let me turn from Japan which as you said not part of your appetite and you're always looking at the Emerging Markets a lot of people have been saying hey some of them disappointed this year Brazil's been a disappointment I haven't kept track of the panda plea of others in Southeast Asia where you're typically focused but I do know overall I think Emerging Markets have been trailing to some extent uh the U.S market so far uh year to date yeah it has been trailing actually the last few years but recently uh there have been periods when Emerging Markets have outperformed and now you're probably going to see our performance as a result of China you must remember when we look at Emerging Markets we look at the index and the msci Emerging Markets index now moving ahead and is beginning to track the s p as you can see from this chart and we believe that actually will outperform going forward uh mainly because of what's happening in China explain that because most people have concerns about what's happening and China granted it's the only place where we see you know M2 is actually expanding right now but then they their inflation data was kind of surprisingly soft and that doesn't really point to an economy with a lot of pent-up demand well uh if you look at the Chinese statistics you have to take them all with the grain of salt some of these uh fixed according to the policy of the Communist body so you have to be careful on that front but it's clear that the Chinese are determined to boost the economy uh they're moving very very aggressively to attract foreign investments local market is doing beginning to do very well and of course the local investors are a big factor in that market as well so putting that all together I believe that China will do a lot better than many of these other markets and that as a result of it being 30 percent of the emergent markets index will boost the Emerging Markets index and will attract a lot of attention on the part of investors sure you know quick final question on Taiwan where I know you're obviously enthusiastic about some of the investment in technology success they've had but continues again to be overshadowed by China and this sends perhaps in a negative fashion what would you say to investors about about the opportunities and the risks there well you know there is a uh interplay between Taiwan and China and a tremendous amount of trade between these two uh areas a lot of Taiwan companies are very successful in the consumer area for example in China the biggest soft drinks manufacturers the biggest instant noodle manufacturers are Taiwanese and in the tech area China has been very very dependent upon Taiwan so I don't think that's going to happen uh very soon in terms of downturn and trade between these two countries but of course because of the U.S sanctions a Taiwan will have to be very careful in what it ships and gives to China right nevertheless I believe they're still going to do very well in this relationship is it true that Taiwan is actually your biggest holding Geographic about 20 of the portfolio and why is that I mean is that just the strength of the semiconductor names that's right because we believe that these so-called fabulous companies uh companies that do the software for the Fabs for the the large manufacturers like tsmc are going to do very well going forward they're very cheap now they're growing at a tremendous rate and they have tremendous potential going forward