저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
차마스는 테슬라 AI5 칩 설계 진전, 에너지 사업(분기 매출 약 35억 달러, 영업이익률 30%)의 호조를 근거로 테슬라의 기술 기반이 강화되고 있다고 주장. 로봇·로보택시가 향후 대형 시장을 열 것이며 옵티머스의 가격·마진, 머스크 보상안 목표(시가총액 2조 달러 등)를 언급. 또한 ISS·Glass Lewis 등 의결권 자문사가 기관 투자 의결을 좌우해 ESG·DEI를 확산시켰다고 비판하며, 테슬라 주주총회 안건 부결 가능성을 우려. AI 버블 논쟁에서는 기술이 장기적으로 변혁적이라는 입장.
다듬은 글
Take it wherever you want. Jamal, I'll say three things. Stan Ducken Miller has this very useful comment about stocks, which is when you buy it today, you're trying to buy what that company's going to look like in 18 months from now. And what it's doing today doesn't matter. The thing about earnings and P&Ls and quarterly reporting is that it's looking backwards and it's trying to give you a sense of what happened, not what will happen.
So I think there are three critical critical things about what will happen that I think are important with respect to Tesla. The first is at the foundational technology layer. And Nick, I sent you this tweet, but it's what he said about AI5. I I've made these comments before, but he had these multiple efforts with Dojo and other stuff that he merged into one unit.
And the the quote is pretty incredible. We're going to focus TSMC and Samsung on AI5. The chip design is an amazing design. I have spent almost every weekend the last few months with the chip design on AI5. By some metrics, it will be 40x better than AI4. We have a detailed understanding of the entire stack.
With AI5, we deleted the legacy GPU. It basically is a GPU. We also deleted the image signal processor. This is a beautiful chip. I poured so much life energy into this personally. It will be a real winner. Why is AI5 so important? What AI5 is is the building block of its system that I think you'll start to see not just in the cyber cabs but also in Optimus.
So from a functional technology perspective there's been a leap and that leap is going to come into the market. That was the first thing he said which I thought was really important. The second thing was what he said about his energy business which I think is the critical adjunct to believe robotics and autonomous cars.
If robotics and autonomous cars work, what you really need is an energy business beside it that is humming and on all cylinders. Why? It's how you make LFP battery cam that will be the limiter. Energy will be the limiter. But what he's showing, and Nick, I sent you this tweet, is that business is just on a tear.
It's printing $ three and a half billion dollars a quarter and its operating margins, an energy business 30%. And so what you're going to see are battery packs of all shapes and sizes, the huge battery systems that's going to go into data centers, but then all the way down, I think, to the small LFP cam that he's going to need to power all these things.
And then the third thing is his comments on cyber cab which is that this thing is just going to be a shock wave. So I read all of those things and I was very bullish. I think that he is humming on all cylinders on the critical layers of the stack that he needs to build this next version of Tesla. My concern I think there's a real concern that I have that this vote is going to go down to the wire.
I think that ISS and Glass Lewis, I think that these organizations are pretty broken. I think the way that they make decisions are hard to justify. An example of this, they asked to vote down Ira Aaron Prize as a director of Tesla because he didn't meet the gender components, but then they wouldn't vote in favor of Kathleen Wilson Thompson even though she does technically meet the gender requirements.
So, it's very confusing where ISS and Glass Lewis are coming from. So, I think there's a risk that this that this package gets voted down. Can I just shine a spotlight on one of those points that you made with these proxy advisory services? So I think for years people have wondering why did corporate America go so woke especially in the early 2020s where they created all these DEI departments and you know they didn't have to do that and a big part of the reason is that those initiatives came from Glass Lewis and ISS I think Elon's jokingly called ISS ISIS but basically what happens is they make recommendations for how shareholders should vote on different resolutions and the index funds basically just defer to them for whatever they should do.
So they effectively control or almost control the voting for all these board level resolutions that every public company has to make. And so they've been the ones who've been imposing all these DEI requirements, all these ESG requirements. If you're wondering where those things came from, because just these two companies, which no one's ever heard of, they were captured a long time ago.
Meaning they were captured by the woke crowd years ago. And so this has really been the root of why corporate America has gone woke for a long time. I mean, look, there's also pressure from the outside from boycots or, you know, there's some pressure sometimes from employees and that kind of thing, but a lot of it came from these two companies that no one's ever heard of.
And I think it would be a good idea for someone to take a look at this and figure out what happened. Maybe someone like Chris Rufo should investigate what was the impact of Glass Lewis and and ISIS on corporate Americais going full woke for so many years because it certainly didn't help corporate profits.
It didn't help profits and they don't have logical explanations for a lot of their decisions. Yeah. And why aren't there active investors or active managers in these passive groups who would make a decision on these things? They're too small. The banks call me every week. And one of the things that I get is sort of like they tell me like, "Hey, here are the big trades.
Here's here's the flow. Here's if you want to be in market, here's what what I recommend." That's what they're telling me. One of the things they told me this week, which I thought was really shocking, is there's so few active managers left. It's so overwhelmingly passive money. The next largest group is now retail.
And so what a lot of these professional money managers do now is they basically wait to see where retail is going. And they follow them. So there isn't the people with a diversified asset base to be able to stand up and say I don't think what ISS and Glass Lewis are doing is right. And so what happens is they kind of as SAC says they can just kind of run a muck and they build a very healthy business being this interloper to provide opinions.
It's not clear where their opinions come from. It's not clear what they're rooted in. It's not clear that there's a way to adjudicate and go back to them and say, "Well, you got this wrong." It's just not clear. But, you know, they probably make a very healthy margin doing it. And everybody, as Sax says, just kind of turns over responsibility to them.
It is an interesting fact that we kind of just say, "Hey, the guys who are the actual custodians of the shares don't have to do the job of holding the shares." Like the job of being the holder of the shares is to vote the shares. That's all there is to do as a as a shareholder. You make your you cast your vote.
And these guys abstained. They could also abstain, right? Yeah. And these guys are getting paid a fee to actually do that work, which is call it half a percent or quarter percent or tenth of a percent of the assets that they hold. So like what are the people they're doing? If it's all automated trading, why aren't they just
I don't know if you guys own a lot of equities, but just to give you a sense, there's people that manage the stocks, right? There's people that transfer the stocks. There's people that then give you a recommendation on how to vote the stock. Then there's people that hold a virtual representation of that stock.
Then there are people that transfer that virtual representation and they will not stop calling. So the point is like we have so financialized everything that there are billion dollar businesses that sit at every single step of the way. And to your point Freeberg, I think this is where no one's actually a shareholder.
The tokenization of stocks may be a really good thing because it'll put the responsibility back into the owner of the stock because the wallet will centralize all that activity because you won't need to have all this other stuff. I have been getting phone calls from Invesco QQQ because I own a bunch of QQQ and like you know some accounts or whatever
and they were calling three times a day for the LA I don't pick up my phone who's calling me on the phone unless it's one of you four is calling me to say good night. I don't that's the only time I pick up is when you know and so I finally pick up and they're like hey we need you to vote and I'm like I'm not voting I don't know who you are like well let us explain to you how to vote and I'm like I I don't want to vote my shares I just want to own QQQ I'm good you guys
some of this infrastructure is so decrepit and old like trying to get shares for example that you that you've bought in the private markets when a company goes public just getting them registered and transferred in the position to be sold can sometimes take three or four weeks Can you imagine the markets move an entire order of magnitude in three or four weeks?
It's the it's crazy. Here's Elon's pay package milestones. Market value 2 trillion. I think they're at 1.4 trillion right now. Something around there. Operational milestone, 20 million vehicles delivered. And then you just go right down to 6.5 trillion. But on the operational milestones, 10 million active FSD subscri subscriptions, which they're far away from right now.
And 20 million vehicles, I think they've delivered six or seven. 1 million robots delivered, 1 million robo taxis in commercial operation. That's those are big numbers. 50 billion adjusted IBIDA and then straight down the line to 400 billion IBIDA. If you were to look at this Optimus business, just back of the envelope, these robots are going to go for 20K.
He said ultimately maybe they're 30. They'll probably have a 30% margin like the cars do or something similar. You'll make a little bit off the software stack. And if you were to just if every millionaire owned one of these or you know they took some number of the jobs the TAM for this just in the United States
this is where it's going to go. I don't think it's going to be huge. We're talking hundreds of billions of dollars. If I had to bet I think a very fine poly market is where do the first million robots go? I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts that these robots go to Mars. I don't think they're going to
Oh wow. They'll be in the Tesla factory. So SpaceX buys them and sends them to Mars. Yeah. Wow. How else are you going to get a fleet of Or they'll go into the mines. I think they're going to mine. They could go to the mines. Coal. Send them in to get that clean, beautiful coal. So clean, so beautiful.
We could send those opport. It's actually, it's the fact that our mining is really limited by the human exposure from the pressure and the heat. If we can mine slightly below the area that we mine um as a maximum depth today, it would unlock an extraordinary supply of minerals that we can't access today.
and automate obviously and you don't want to figure out like how to create portable water and breathing mechanisms on Mars for the first five years. Send robots. Guess what? They don't need to eat or breathe or pee or poop and they can get charged with solar. And that may sound that may sound like a really stupid thing to say, but it it becomes a huge amount of infrastructure that you otherwise wouldn't need to build on.
That's right. They just got to power up. You just got to give them a plug and just a solar a couple solar panels. By the way, guess who makes those batteries? Tesla. Yeah. And guess who? Guess who makes the brain? Tesla. Cars. But I'm curious if we're all sitting together 10 years from now, will we think of Tesla as a car company or will it be a robot company?
You know, just even seeing Becky getting those gummies, being handed the gummies by Optimus, is is that what it is? And and how how close are we to true dexterity? Because, you know, people always say that that robots can do a lot, but they they still can't fold laundry, for example. Oh, well, Optimus can fold laundry.
I've actually he has a pretty gentle grasp with the gummies that he could have squished, and once or twice he dropped them like he did just now, and he went back and picked them up carefully. It's pretty gentle. Exactly. Right. So, I've been in the lab with Optimus. He can fold laundry. He can wipe uh the table down really well.
He can hand things to you. You can actually shake hands with him. Um the the um the tactile nature of his hand is actually really uh very good. And so I wasn't supposed to touch it, but I did. Yeah, you can. I mean um yeah, again from a cautious perspective, we we continue to um make sure that people are cautious around him.
But but um you know, he also uh can dance. You've seen some videos. Uh he's very uh mobile and very dextrous. He's walking around the offices in Palo Alto all the time. So, um, so I'm actually quite excited. But I think to answer your question, um, we're redefining what trans transportation is, but we're also redefining, uh, robotics and and what AI brings to robotics and how versatile uh, the robots can will be in the future as well.
Andrew, in terms of, by the way, Elon's spending most of his time, it sounds like, these days on on the robots themselves. I mean, that's that's where his focus is. He's spending time on many different areas. Um, on the earnings call, he even talked about uh the AI kits that he's been working on. Um, and the team are working on obviously the um the software.
We do have a few uh other vehicles coming out. Um, so he spends time on that. He's spending time on everything across the board. And then finally, uh, because I got to ask you to weigh on it. We've asked everybody, you know, everyone talks about an AI bubble, whether there's sort of, you know, indiscriminate spending, almost too much spending in this space, um, and that it's going to catch up to us at some point.
Where do you land on that topic? Yeah, my my view is that that the technology of AI is truly transformative um, and it will uh, continue to be over the next uh, you know, decade or more in terms of what it's done. I was I was thinking about this yesterday. Um, you know, if you think about a hundred years ago, um, you know, where most houses didn't have electricity or or had cars in the driveways, uh, that to me is what's happening at this point.
It's, um, we're changing transportation with, uh, with AI. And we're tra changing the way households will work and how workplaces will work with with robotics. And, um, and I think that's incredibly exciting. And uh Tesla uh aims to be at the forefront of that.
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