🚨JAMIE DIMON WARNS STOCK MARKET INVESTORS OF RECESSION🚨

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결론: 채널 진행자는 현 시장이 경기침체 경고에도 불구하고 금융·소비재주 강세를 보이며 소프트랜딩 기대가 반영된 상태라고 보고, 약세론(베어트랩 가능성)을 점검하는 입장이다. [거시·채권 신호] 장단기 금리차(10년-3개월, 10년-2년)는 과거 역전 후 해제 시점에 경기침체·급락이 동반된 사례가 많다고 설명했다. 다만 역전 상태에서도 주가가 오른 사례가 있어 역전만으로 대폭락을 단정하지 않는다고 했다. [연준·유동성] 연준 총자산은 양적긴축으로 감소 추세이며, 주가(S&P500)와 연준 대차대조표의 동조성이 깨진 상태라고 진단했다. 이 괴리는 '매그니피센트 7' 효과로 설명되며, 어느 한쪽이 조정될 가능성을 언급했다. M2 통화량은 마이너스 상태라고 했다. [고용·주택·소비자] 비농업고용 수정치가 7개월 연속 마이너스였다는 점을 2008년, 2016년, 2002년 사례와 비교하며 경계를 강조했다. 주택 구매 수요는 20년 만의 최저 수준이며 가계 DTI는 2006~2007년 버블 수준을 넘었다고 언급했다. 신용카드 금리는 급등, 개인저축률은 팬데믹 이전 저점 아래, 신용카드 잔액 증가, 신차 월 할부 평균 733달러, 연체 전이 증가 등 소비자 부담 지표를 나열했다. [자산별 차트 해석] 금융섹터(XLF, JPM)는 3월 저점 이후 강한 상승과 저항 돌파를 보였고 XLF 36달러 목표 시나리오를 언급했다. 경기소비재(consumer discretionary)도 돌파 흐름이라고 진단했다. 이는 시장이 경기침체를 크게 반영하지 않는다는 근거로 제시됐다. [리스크·결론] 약세론은 '정상화' 이후 베어트랩 뒤 급락을 시나리오로 제시했지만, 진행자는 현재 시장이 소프트랜딩을 믿고 있으므로 내러티브가 바뀔 때까지 상승이 이어질 수 있다고 봤다. 투자 판단은 거시지표보다 차트와 가격 움직임을 신호로 삼으라고 권고했다. 구체적 자산 방향 예측·목표가는 제시되지 않았다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. what is up Traders what's up tycoons super excited for today's video lots too to cuss now let's take a look at some of these recent headlines city is planning to do job Cuts right Goldman making annual cut Wells Fargo expects more layoffs ahead the FED is on alert for one more rate hike after disappointing inflation and Jamie Diamond says it's a huge mistake to think that the economy will boom with so many risks out there right he's warning investors over Bank stocks uh any slams Regulators on Capital plans we're going to break down all of this in today's video and go over some of these warning signs and some of the risks that people like Jamie dimon are speaking of so be sure to smash the like button subscribe to the channel if you guys are new alright as always the content provided on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as Legal Financial or investment advice so please be sure to read through the full disclaimer and we'll jump straight into it now the Bears are going to tell you this is exactly where we are right now in the cycle okay they're gonna tell you we're right here at this return to normal this is a market psychology uh chart and Sheet basically and you can see that it does seem to align with this after we get the bull trap and we're at this return to normal phase it's very possible that the market could be due for this next leg down this is what the Bears are screening right now okay and this is what all of the Bears are telling you so we need to dive into you know what's the reason what's the thesis behind this well of course when you take a look at the yield curve and this is the 10-year three months right the last time it was inverted 1990 recession then we have the.com then we have the great financial crisis we have the 2020 recession you know that was largely due to covid and look at where we're at now okay this is very very significant and this is something that everyone is warning about now just to visualize it another way okay we have the 10-year two-year yield curve right here and then we have the FED fund rate and then we have the SPX okay so what we're looking at here is you really start to see a bunch of pain in the market once the yield curve uninverts that's typically when the FED starts cutting rates right that's a result of the FED cutting rates and so the FED cut rates here in 2000 the yield curve uninverted went up and look at the performance of the stock market afterwards same thing over here Sandy starts to cut rates yield curve uninverts and the stock market goes down and here we are right here very far away from a yield curve inversion but you know if the FED does end up cutting rates it's going to be because there's problems and big problems and something is broken right that's typically when they start to cut the rates and that's typically when you start to see the yield curve uninvert and that's typically when you start to see the large drawdown in the market all right you don't always see it when the yield curve is uninverted if you see here the yield curves aren't inverted stock or the yield curve is inverted and the stock market's continuing to go up all right um so you know it's not always the case that you have to have a mega crash when the yield curve is inverted it's more so once it's uninverted and once the FED starts to cut rates you can see that that's typically when the yield curve starts to uninvert now the business optimism index is you know at current levels that have all seen recessions right the gray shaded areas here are recessions and you can see where we're at right now has all been preceded by a recession I do want to mention that I started a completely free newsletter for you guys real quick uh giving out free valuable content as well as a couple free trade ideas in there this is a recent example of a Tesla trade that was in the uh you know newsletter a couple weeks ago and if you take a look you know after some of the conditions that we went over uh Tesla rallied tremendously and if you trade option contracts uh those are some very juicy returns so if you want to sign up for the newsletter there's a link in the description or the comment section down below great way to support the channel and also uh support me you can also go to Kofi all right Kofi is a really cool platform you can go in there and click commissions and you can request a specific YouTube video in there you can also book uh one-on-one personal sessions directly through there uh on the commission side all right there's 30 minute sessions one hour sessions and if you ever enjoy the content and want to leave a tip or a donation you can you know do that through the platform as well uh clicking the buy a coffee um button basically now let's get back into the juice of the video now these are sequences of seven negative NFP reports these are the non-farm payrolls 1985 2008 and now we're at 2023.

02. this is seven consecutive ones right and these are negative report revisions look yeah all right we all know what happened in 2008 okay great financial crisis look at the other time when there were sequences of exactly six negative NFP reports in 2016 and in 2002. right so you know this is you know more things to be cautious of and more risks as Jamie dimon puts it uh to the economy and to the market and now another thing um that's really been surprising okay uh and what I mean by that is when you take a look at the uh feds total assets okay it's been on a decline right you can see that there's this big boost here in March all right that was due to the banking crisis and them stimulating the economy with tons of money and now we're seeing it trickle off more and more the FED has been doing quantitative tightening right and so they're actually taking money off of the balance sheet rather than adding to it um and you know we're seeing a Divergence right now okay because oftentimes stock market performance has been very closely correlated with the FED balance sheet right and so that's what this uh greenish you know teal-ish line right here represents and the blue line represents the S P 500 so you know you can see the S P 500 you know tends to Rally along with the FED balance sheet fed balance sheet starts to pull back stock market starts to pull back right fed balance sheet goes up stock market goes up and we are at this current Divergence right now now people are calling this The Magnificent Seven effect um basically you know the top seven stocks in the market are pushing the entire market up higher even though uh the FED is draining liquidity and you know not adding to their balance sheet but these two don't send they really don't tend to stay separated and diverged like this for long so one of these is going to have to change right we're either going to see the FED start pumping money into the economy or it's very possible that the S P 500 is going to pull back and you know get rid of this deviation between these two lines right here all right um and another thing if you want to take a look at M2 is that levels I mean it's negative right now all right the M2 money supply is negative um you look at mortgage demands it hits 1996 lows right we haven't seen this it's the lowest level since December of 1996.

03. uh the quarterly transition rates for 30 60 day late mortgage accounts you can take a look at this chart right here um you know things are just not looking good in the housing market right and in the real estate market uh when you look at the collapse in home buyer demand this is mortgage applications to buy a house uh it's at the lowest buyer demand in 20 years that's where we're at right now and when you look at the debt to income ratio for all home buyers we're at levels higher than the 2006 2007 housing bubble okay so you know this is this is something that a lot of people are concerned about these are some of the risks now of course you know with inflation okay and with people technically making more money I mean you should kind of see debt rise right it's it's healthy to see debt rise but it's still shocking and we're still at very concerning numbers uh especially when you look at it you know compared to you know where we were at in the 0607 housing bubble and where we're at right now now Commercial Bank interest rate on credit card plans skyrocketing right we're seeing Commercial Bank interest rates for credit cards extremely high right now uh you know and and that's largely due to the Fed when you look at the loans and leases and bank credit um this is tanking okay so this is tanking so the loans and leases and bank credit for all commercial Banks is tanking right and then you have the actual um you know interest rate on your credit cards skyrocketing all right and then what we're seeing here is the personal savings rate in green absolutely tanking right you know collapsing here all right now um it looks terrible because of this right here this is covet okay so everybody had this really large personal savings rate and it looks more dramatic uh than it is but what you really want to see is the pre-pandemic levels right we are far below the pre-pandemic lows for the personal savings rate and the red line here is credit card revolving credit card debt and the debt change and you can see this skyrocketing okay so you know this shot down tremendously as the personal savings rate went up and now that we've seen the personal savings rate tank we're seeing um you know revolving credit debt change you know absolutely Skyrocket here and we just took a look at how you know High the interest rates are on new credit cards this is the quarterly change in deposits you can see that this has been going down for ever since 2022 bear Market really started uh this has not been you know looking good all right at the average monthly payment for a new car in the U.S is up to 733 dollars okay um you know I remember when I started paying my wife's uh Toyota uh Corolla Bill okay and started paying that for her uh you know before we got married and I was like man you're paying 560 dollars for a Toyota Corolla and now I mean that's like not even insane anymore right um you know thankfully we're basically about to just pay that car off um but you know if you're out here looking to get a new car it's extremely high right and if you want something nice okay quote unquote nice it's probably going to be upwards close to a thousand dollars a month right and this is a monthly payment just for a vehicle and now the transition into delinquency by loan type um you know you can see student loans fell off a cliff here obviously this is about to change and potentially change because student loan payments are going to start again very soon all right but when you take a look at the mortgage mortgage is going to be in this gold color Okay credit card and auto loans all in an uptrend right in a significant uptrend ever since bottoming out in 2022 um you know those have have all basically been in an uptrend and with the transition into delinquency you look at third party collections the average collection amount per person with collections is going to be this red line here you can see this is north of fifteen hundred dollars now and the percent of consumers with collection has dropped lower but the average collection amount is really what you're seeing right here is is is going up by a tremendous amount now what does all this tell you right we're looking at all the financials um you know we just took a basically a bunch of numbers and a bunch of different Financial aspects of the economy um what's the stock market got to say about all of this right and when you actually look at the financial sector in the stock market it's it's telling you it's not worried right it's literally telling you it's not worried about it so you know maybe the market sees something that we don't and maybe the market is pricing in this soft Landing right that's been a big narrative and that's one of the risks that Jamie Diamond is basically warning people of is hey you know clearly the stock market is not concerned right financials have bottomed since March and have started a very strong rally and it looks like you know via Elliott wave after this breakout it looks like we put in our Wave 4 lows and we could be heading up on the XLF ETF back up to 36 dollars right I mean we've seen a clear breakout here uh on the financial sector um you know we're seeing the same thing in JB JP Morgan so ticker symbol JPM also breaking a recent downtrend we got a clean breakout retest let's see if this thing is going to push higher right um the stock market is just does not seem to be concerned about some of these risks okay and that's something that you need to understand right the economy and the stock market aren't always going to move in the same exact Direction um you know oftentimes people say the market is forward-looking by about a year so really if you think about it the the stock market seems to believe that you know all of these concerns all of these risks while they are something to pay attention to um you know they're they have more optimism right and it seems like we're seeing more optimism in the stock market um you know via the financial sector right I mean after all those financial numbers that we looked at M2 money supply different things like that credit card interest rates things about the consumer right and speaking of the consumer look at the consumer discretionary sector right I mean who is telling the consumer discretionary sector that we're possibly about to have a recession that we have all of these warning signs right I mean we're not seeing that we're seeing you know tremendous rallies in the consumer discretionary sector again consumer discretionary is also breaking out so if if you know if people are is supposed to be so worried basically about the consumer Consumer Credit Consumer Debt all right and and you know where basically that we're going to have a recession and that the consumer is going to be hurt we're not seeing you know all of these warning signs in the performance of the stock market in the financial sector we're not seeing it in the consumer discretionary sector and you know this is what makes investing and trading so difficult right is you can find all of this data you can think that it's giving you an edge and somehow you know the market sees something else and is doing something different from your narrative so you know the best thing to do is while you know it is important to focus on the economy focus on the risks involved with trading and investing you want to pay attention to the chart in front of you at the end of the day right now whatever ticker symbol it is whatever you're trading whatever you're investing in you want to look at how that's performing um and and pay attention to that right and use that as a signal uh for you know potential entries and exits all right and you know you can pay attention to the economy and you know some of the warning signs and the risks out there um but you know you don't want to always let that skew uh your investment thesis and as I mentioned before you know we're seeing right now that consumer discretionaries financials are performing very well it doesn't seem like the stock market is very concerned about the consumer or concerned about this big recession that we're supposed to be having in the future now could this all be a bear trap right the quote-unquote return to normal right if you remember that very first chart that we looked at um you know in the video it showed you guys how this could all potentially be a bull trap and this is that quote-unquote return to normal and then we get a big massive crash afterwards right so you know that's the whole bear thesis um the stock market doesn't seem to believe the bear thesis they seem to believe that we're going to have this soft landing and until that narrative changes uh it's very possible that the stock market continues to go higher um now again I just want to mention if you enjoyed this video you're really going to enjoy the newsletter okay not only does you do you get trade ideas and trade breakdowns like this all right that sometimes can result in you 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