저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 대표 투자자 Vijay Kedia는 관세·트럼프 불확실성과 정책 혼란으로 현재 현금 비중이 25~30%로 높아졌고, 시장이 한동안 방향성 없이 불안정할 것이라며 이번 2025년이 '까다로운 해'라고 봄. 저평가 종목은 외면받는 상황이라 당장 공격적으로 매수하지 않겠다는 입장. 투자 테마는 미국 의존도가 낮은 인도 내수 중심(Make in India, 자급 정책)으로 정리. 시장 하락 자체를 기다리기보다 심리 개선과 가시성 회복을 기다린다고 설명. 신규 투자 관심은 비상장 스타트업·딥테크 초기 투자로 이동 중이라고 밝힘. 실적 시즌은 '좋지도 나쁘지도 않다'는 평가.
다듬은 글
In our next conversation around tariffs. It's the talk of the town now but ace investor Vijay Kedia has an interesting take on it. Before We Talk to Him as a Snake picks up from his latest tune on Terrace. It's good that you picked us up. We also awakened the sleeping power. Now we will find it from the new night.
Now the time has come for a developed India. We will take you along only after making India the number one country by 47. Creation is then history. Alright the man himself joining in today on the show Mr. Kedia. Well, where are those blue glasses? How will we do the interview without him? If you had told me earlier, I would have brought all the red, yellow, blue and black ones I had.
Sorry, next time. Yes please. No, but let me start with the point that you have tried to convey through this song. India does not need to worry so much but the market is quite worried. Here the market is worried. If you look carefully, this drama has been going on for the last three-four months and if you compare the index in the last three-four months, then the index is at a higher level than that of the last three months.
So I do n't think that the market is worried about this because people have understood that yes brother, it is okay, they will keep saying this, they started from 5.25%, went up to 150, then came to 300, and now they have reduced it even further in China, so I don't think that the market is much worried about this and this is not old, this is new India and everyone knows that what I have written in the song that now we will find new ways, we will find some way or the other, the public has faith in this Vijay ji, hello Alex here and your voice is sounding as good as it was the last time you sang a song, this one is special, two.
Ah would you say there are far that many opportunities that you get in the market and quite a few opportunities now because there is some bit of concern there is a little bit of panic. These are the opportunities you double down on and what according to you are the big opportunities because you are seeing in the auto sales data for example that there is a science of rule recovery.
Even in the FMCG companies, the way that they are reporting numbers, there is science that consumption might just be picking up. So what are those areas that you are looking at very closely? No frankly speaking let me tell you that I am sitting on some cash. And I am looking for some opportunity but as of today while I am talking to you I am a little conservative.
I'm a little cautious in this market. Because in many pockets valuations are not cheap and the stocks are actually cheaper valuation wise people are not interested in buying those shares. So this market is little tricky and I feel that this year itself this 2025 is really very tricky. Look at what is happening around the world.
So many countries are fighting among themselves. So many plane crashes are happening and now this terrible thing is happening. Every day there is a new scenario. So I am a little cautious as far as this is a concern in this market but of course if I get a really compelling opportunity if I will get then I will invest otherwise I am just sitting you can say that on the fence what is the amount of cash sorry I just want to ask you said you are sitting on some cash what is the extent of cash that you are sitting on and what is the kind of opportunity you are looking for?
So I will tell you so far cash is a concern if I include my stocks which I usually I never do but I have invested in some liquid shares because keeping cash is really a painful for me I don't get sleep I have said this number of times that keeping cash is really a pain for me ah but at this moment I have little cash and may be the investment which I have made in liquid shares if I include all those then it could be somewhere around 25 30% wow ok ah Mr Keria good morning Neeraj here.
So are you when you are waiting when you are waiting for an opportunity, would you believe opportunities will come in individual pockets because of weakness in those pockets and do you believe that because of all of this noise around us. Market wide correction and deepening may occur. Correction because now the sea market is very unique.
Neeraj Bhai, if you will see that some stocks are trading at 60, 70, 80, 100 p ratio and some stocks are available at below 10 p, then I don't know what shape this market is going to take and mainly what happens is that right now, because of the USA and Trump and the tariff uncertainty, there is a lot of mix in it, so I am confused, I would rather that if I am confused and if I do any work in that, then it is better that I do not do any work.
I should sit quietly and keep it in liquid shares which are safe and they will not multiply but they are safe and so right now I am in a state of confusion so I would like to say this ok ok and so this Mr. Kedia follow up question is this that let's assume we do not get clarity because these things that to and fro continue for a long time Donald Trump ji, so there are probably 3 more years or 3 years.
Right? Right? So if this confusion lasts but if the markets were to come down to a particular level valuation wise it should be fine. Could that be a catalyst? What I mean to understand is if confusion stays when does Vijay Kedia turn a buyer if the markets correct another 1500 points or something else ?
So first of all, let me tell you what Trump is doing. Personally, I have very limited knowledge about all these things, politics and economics and whatever else. I don't think he is doing what he understands for his country and let me tell you what is the use of just blaming him, if your own leader says that yes India is a dead economy then first you should do reforms in your home brother, charity begins at home, reforms begin at home first you should do it inside your home, so first of all this is the answer to Trump, so my question is not that yes he did this, hey you stand up brother, like I have said in the song that it is good that you woke us up, get up brother, get ready, what is the harm in blaming him again and again, it is his job to run his country and coming to this market scenario I am not looking at the index whether it will fault 1000 points or 1500 points then I will invest in this market, I just feel that if the confusion settles down even a little then I can buy 10% higher also but the state of confusion is there or a little sometimes There is a fear in the middle that what will happen next.
If there is no future visibility in the stock market, then there is a scenario where the market gets a little panicky. There should be visibility. The rest of us have seen Covid too. Have we seen everything, have we seen the crisis of the Lynn Brothers? Saw all the sages. I have seen war. Seen from Ukraine.
Right now, second, third, fourth, all these wars are happening. We are watching everything. But visibility comes that this matter ends here. When it is over and I get a clear path, then I will invest. Vijay ji, on the weekend, Prime Minister Modi made a statement at Varanasi. I believe. Where he was talking about buying India and buying Indian products and he is talking about Swadeshi again, right?
So in the context of so many countries globally moving towards protectionism. We are talking about a scenario where we are still waiting for the consumption boost that was supposed to come through from the income tax cuts. Ah that could come through from the monetary policy benefit. Another rate cut may be on the cards.
ah are you more and more focused on the domestic ah focused entities because I know that in the past you boat ah companies like Atul Auto you boat companies like ah you know in the in the ah building materials space where you are saying that you are betting on the India growth story. This is now going back to the 90s.
How are you positioning yourself now? I You have raised a very good question. Let me tell you first of all I would like to answer in this way. Now it is the duty of the citizen. You know, now it is our duty to decide which product we should use and which product we should not use, the government cannot impose this maybe because of the WT and I don't know what ever policies are there and whatever international trade policy there is, but look at China, your Google does not work there, your YouTube does not work there, Amazon does not work there, they have made everything of their own, they have made everything of their own, this is the time for India to make its own product, now this is the time for the government to keep them.
If I were the Finance Minister, I would have said that all their products which we are using, if you manufacture them in India, then you will be tax free for life or anything like that, now is not the time to do such small reforms, brother. Now is the time for reform, it is the time for some bombardment, some revolutionary reform.
Let the industries earn. Make people earn. We have to protect India. So first of all your answer is that I feel that the government will bring some such bold reforms which neither happened in the 90s nor in 2014 or ever before, if this is the time and it does not come then it is our misfortune, I feel so and coming to sorry I forgot my second question what was the sorry stocks you are taking Vijay Khedia ji is your focus in apart from just using make in India are you looking at domestic facing stocks that was the just of the questions you asked in the past you bet on companies like Atul Auto, you bet on companies like Cera if I have not mistaken right?
In the Building Materials Space. So there for what is the next like and these are stocks that have proven to be big multibaggers for you and one of the reasons for your success. So looking at the next 10, 15-20 years, what are the stocks that you are identifying? So, correct. As on today while I am talking to you, my focus is entirely on the domestic theme.
The company which is not dependent on the USA, the company which is not dependent on other countries, that is the theme that I will decide as of today while I am talking to you, I may change my mind tomorrow also, so that is a different matter but today what I feel is that it will be safe if we find an India centric story and work on that.
Having said that Vijay Kedia ji, there is also talk of profitability and performance. The kind of results you have seen till now almost 50% is done. Is it a disappointment or is this better than what you had expected? No, I think it is mixed, there is neither any disappointment nor any excitement in it.
Now what happens is that when you are unwell, even if I feed you Rasgulla, you will not like it. Is equal. So the current market sentiment is a bit gloomy. There is fear in the minds of people. This is what I think is going to happen. What will happen next? Look at FIIs also, you can see that they are continuously selling.
So until this little clarity does not come, even if the results are a little subtended due to clarity, the market ignores it thinking that the future is good and good results will also come and if there is no visibility in the future, people think that this result is good, I don't know what will come in the future, so the most important thing is this clarity in the stock market, there is a little lack of it right now, so I feel that the result of this statement does not have that much importance and already we have seen such a big boom in three-four years, brother, the shares have increased 10 times, 20 times, 30 times, 40 times, slow down a bit, brother, are you running a marathon ?
It's not 120 km all the time. I have to go at a speed of . Sometimes come at a speed of 40. Stop sometime and drink some water. After that move ahead. It is running on time. Vijay K ji, you are saying the right thing. But this is this thing of ill health, it has been going on for a long time. Do You Think We Are on the Way to Healing in Terms of Sentiment?
I think this year will be like this. The alignment of some planets this year is also similar. You understand this. So saying this I feel that this year should pass like this, 2025, then this is fine, this is a game of sunshine and shade, this is how nature works, do you look at astrology while you are choosing investment decision because you did not talk about planets, planets means in a general language we talk, I have zero astrology, I understand, I believe, I do not see anything else, I keep looking at the full moon, empty, I become the sun, the moon comes, empty and I am in the sky, I mean hmm, okay, so my question is, okay, so just so that our viewers know that in the past Vijay Kedia also had to wait for things to turn around, in your experience, what is the longest you have waited for a story to turn around and can you tell us about that story if at all?
Now so I will tell you I had never been in cash. I had never been in so much of cash in my entire investing career that means this is the very first time that I am having so much of cash and cash means what I am talking as I said that I have invested in some liquid shares which I can sell may be in two days and three days and all it is not like mid cap and small cap which are illiquid ok all these stocks were wherever I have invested I think they are in and also so that means I can sell them at any given point so this I have never done in my life that does not mean that my vision and my observations rules for India have entirely changed.
It is not like that. So maybe you change your policies little by little as you move forward. But this is temporary because it is everyday. Let me tell you I am worried why I am keeping so much of cash. But when I look at the face of the USA President and hear something from him, I feel that it is okay to stay in cash for now.
So I have never done this. This is the first time that I am so much in cash. You know Vijay Kedia is an institution unto himself. So, we can safely say that institutional investors are sitting on cash right now. After looking at President Donald Trump, he decided to stay on cash. No but Vijay Ji I kind of circle back right?
That there will be someone who is the catalyst you need to find. I mentioned Nifty level because that is the easiest to predict. I'm sure you go bottoms up. Right? So would you say the catalyst for change will come from a lower price or you do not know right now where that catalyst for the change for Vijay to start buying will come from?
You don't have clarity there right now, yes that will not come from a lower price, so at all times, as I have said many times that there is always an opportunity somewhere in the stock market. Ok? It is like it is that Sunrise. Somewhere on Earth you will find sunrise. If it is not here then it is in England.
If it is not in England then it is here. The same theory of stock market is that you will get an opportunity somewhere. But right now I am not as concerned about the opportunity as I am about the sentiment improving a little and that is it. So what is the kind of investment you are looking at? From now on, when Vijay Kedia deploys his Ah Cash and you are saying this is the largest you have set on since you started your investing journey, that's quite a big statement, what are the kind of opportunities you are looking for?
So currently let me tell you now I remember that currently I am looking for opportunity in startups. I have already invested in maybe some 20 or 22 startups. Ok? So I am looking at the opportunity there in startups, I am searching if I can find any company there and I forgot to tell you this, I am searching extensively and I keep meeting people who are startup people, so my focus is a little there, see what I see is that many of them are like jungles, for example, an elephant runs, it has a speed, so suppose it runs at 20 km and suppose if a deer runs, it runs at 120 km.
Cheetah runs 160 km. Must be running from. For any one example, in the stock market, among so many, we have to find a cheetah who runs fast, runs more, who is agile. So this is the only purpose. The purpose of keeping cash or liquid in a chair is also the same. Type to find a cheetah. Okay, so I do n't see such a leopard in the listed space right now.
So I can see that, maybe there is something inside it. Vijay Kedia ji, the cheetah is not visible in the listed space. Cheetah is visible in the primary market, this is the IPO season. Yes, I generally do not invest in IPOs. I don't remember till now, maybe I was in any IPO because the IPO people take out all the juice.
When the IPO comes, the merchant bankers and all the promoters together extract all the juice. I don't get anything from that. And IPO is also good for those who have not sold after listing. Sold it after three months. I don't know. So I don't do IPOs. I do it in its initial stage that these people who speak in their own language, most of what I have done till now is seed funding in it but there is a small investment, then that Series A etc.
I have also invested in Series A, so nowadays whatever technology I see there, deep tech, I will have to find a new way for myself. I am not going to invest in steel and cement. My money is not going to multiply in that. Right now I am interested in technology and whatever companies I have worked in these 20-22, I think 95% or 90% of them are technology companies which I do not understand, but I understand only one concept, the rest of the data, I do not understand, so I am a little conscious, so my focus is on investing in it and I am searching for it every day, I am searching for many of them which are in very advanced stage.
Open Call Here for Innovators. Vijay Kedias Puts On His Hat As Angel Investor Now And That's A New Avatar. Before We Let You Go gives you a live demo of the song. We have finished your Lincolnton one but we have to hear something for our viewers. Hey, is the picture still left? Yes yes, absolutely always.
This is the closing credits song. The same one? No, whatever you say, you are working on making, well, that's what will work, that's what is good, you raised us, we have also awakened the sleeping power, now we will find new ways, now the time has come for developed India, we will do it only after reaching 47 and making India the number one country, together there is creation, then history is creation, then history is creation, then history what a thing, what a thing, superb, thank you, you know this, thank you so much Vijay K ji, always a pleasure to speak with you and thank you for your time for us and that passion that has come in that this is an opportunity we should see
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