저자: RamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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모틸랄오스왈 1분기 실적이 사상 최대 분기 이익 1,430억원을 기록했다고 설명. 영업이익은 전년 대비 약 24% 매출 증가, 21% 이익 증가이며, 트레저리 평가이익(약 1,000억원)이 실적을 끌어올림. TTM 기준으로 봐야 한다고 강조. 하우징파이낸스는 대출 잔액 5,000억원 돌파, 디스버스 57% 성장하나 경쟁 심화와 인력 비용 증가로 이익 성장은 제한적. 향후 5~7년간 AUM 2,000억 달러 가능성 언급. 시장 활동은 프로모터 매도 증가로 유동성 개선이 긍정적이라 평가. 고점 대비 4~6% 낮은 현 시점에서 조정 후 실적 회복 시 저가매수 준비를 권고.
다듬은 글
talking about uh normal investors. I think appetite has grown to the extent that um everyone wants a piece of the pie and that's what you're seeing when you look at the capital markets play. We're talking about modil and it's been a stellar quarter for Motil. Um the stock taking a bit of a dip right now but just to talk about the quarter gone by marked with a fair amount of milestones.
We're joined now by Ramdev Agarwal chairman and co-founder of Motel Financial Services. Mr. Agaral, very good afternoon to you. Pleasure as always to have you here with us on NDTV Profit. It's uh been an important quarter. Uh the AUM business has crossed the 1.5 lakh cr. Um what has been the top highlight in your view and what has been the big move?
Yeah. So actually this quarter has been quite a milestone I would say. I mean in terms of declared number it is the the the largest quarterly profit we ever had of 1430 crores. So clearly for us it's a it is a big moment. Not that this is going to the highest number in future will will clearly surpass these numbers but right now this is the largest in the history and it is led by uh operations as well as treasury because mutil is twin engine kind of operation treasury and operations.
So operations have grown at about 24% on top line and 21% in terms of bottom line uh in terms of 522 crores of profit for this quarter which is what gives me the biggest uh what do you call comfort and it is led by performance in uh fantastic performance in AMC uh PWM and above all the capital market where we are the largest QIP razor of about 30,000 crores in this quarter for the corporates.
So I think these three four operating what do you call highlights have brought the revenue up by 24% and matching performance in terms of uh profits but because in last quarter we had a negative mark to market this quarter as the market recovered we have bumper mark to market of almost 1,000 crores and that takes the total profit of treasury and operating to more like 1430 crores.
U Mr. Jagar is harsher. So just give our viewers a perspective on how one should look at numbers because of this mark to market. Your numbers do appear to move quite a bit. Give our viewers a perspective on how they should look at motil's numbers. I think they should look at TTM basis instead of looking at a one quarter basis.
That might be a little misleading. I think if you see a four quarter numbers trailing four quarters I think then you'll get a better sense like last year uh in March our profits were about 2550 or something like that now with the June quarter it will be about 29 30,000 crores at the TTM because in four quarters you get one or two quarters low markets in one or two quarters you get high markets I would say trailing four quarters is a reasonably good reflection of what's happening in the company uh in both the engines operating as well as treasury.
So now the operating profit for last four quarters have gone up from 2500 crores in March to here more like 3,000 crores. Um sir good afternoon and n are joining in the conversation as well. I was going through all that happened for in FI25 the investments that you guys made and you you gained market share across the five verticals.
no flags about what will happen in the rest of the five verticals and continued growth. That was the con call in May 2025. You reckon the same narrative continues? Yeah, I think uh uh except for the retail brokerage which got little bit of uh little bit impacted because of uh regulatory changes which came in uh sometime in September, October last year.
So that will play out for next two quarters more. I mean this quarter has impacted I think two more quarters have impacted more intensely the September quarter but once we get over that even for us in this quarter even the retail brokerage distribution BND brokerage and distribution retail is muted it's not down but uh it's not showing that 30 40% growth we are used to so I think that yearon-year comparison will subside sometime in September and maybe probably December but starting March uh 25 or March before I think we'll have a very good growth numbers even from uh retail broker side
sir trying to understand the lending business a little bit more and what's happening there uh uh your your yields have come off a little bit um and and your NPA ratios have spiked when I'm looking at it QoQ there's also some bit of credit cost build up which is there just give us a perspective on what is happening in housing finance a couple of big players have suggested competition is coming in in a big fashion.
Pricing has has gone a little bit or I so just trying to understand sir uh we have actually since uh housing finance uh is on a recovery mode actually in the first quarter the growth in the dispersal is more like 57%. With more or less same kind of a yield just that we have built the sales force for further growth.
So the productivity of the salesforce has not built up and hence the cost have stacked up little bit. So uh profit in absolute terms has not grown uh as much as the top line top line has grown. So uh as far as our understanding is concerned uh because we are still a small company we have just about crossed for 5,000 crores AUM in the housing housing side.
Uh everything looks to be fine. In fact uh the sense is that for the whole year because lot of lot of accounting cannot be done in terms of insurance income in terms of some uh uh so they down sell some of the things so I think the overall I think we are seeing we are expecting 30 to 40% growth in the bottom line on a 25 26 or 23 24 sorry 2425 so yes we are we are little I would say cautiously optimistic on housing finance side.
Uh but yes, what you're saying is right that there is much more intense competition in the uh affordable housing and more importantly that segment is not growing as much as the the upper end of the housing is growing. So uh so so much of capital is chasing so yes it becomes a little more difficult to grow profitably.
the last few years you've come a long way as an entity right from less than a billion dollars at the very least to where you are right now which is almost almost 7 billion or thereabouts and counting um what you reckon over the next 5 10 years you could replicate what you've done um in the last 5 7 10 years at the pace of growth be stronger
yeah n see we are telling right now I mean I'm telling you we were telled between 2003 to 2007 okay I I remember of that phase now I mean from 2020 to 2025 this 5 years has been massively tailwinded what we did between 2003 and 2008 2008 profits we rep so we had a almost like flattish broadly flattish decade so again there is a another round of growth of expansion of capital markets on the back of retail expansion starting from 2020 till 2025.
Now we are at 200 million. I hope we are headed for 400 to 500 million kind of thing in next 5 years. That's my hope. I mean it should happen like that. A lot of things don't happen as we expect but we are tailwind dead and as the tailwind la no no tailwind lasts forever as this tailwind continues for next four five years I think we will try to make best use of it and we will put best foot forward from motil in every possible business
Mr. Agraval I'm just wondering that with the way markets have been the last few months uh have you seen activity on that end come down a bit in terms of uh number of accounts coming in retail activity have you seen any kind of slump or dip there? No. If anything we have seen the corporate activity picking up.
In fact the block selling you know one of the thing which has emerged is the sustained selling by the corporates uh of the of their holdings. Uh I mean like I think uh the promoters holding have come off by 2 3% in last one year. So I think uh the rich valuation in the market and uh now no more promoter selling is looked upon negative.
I think we are seeing uh a lot I mean the new phenomena for 2526 is the is uh what I would say significant selling by promoter uh promoter entities uh into the market. So that's the new one which further expands the market. It is it is more I mean that that certificate which was illlquid is becoming liquid.
So floating stock the free float of the companies are increasing slowly but I mean India is the only place where you have 45% promoters block only 55% is floating stock. So as as the promoter blog melts and comes to become you know kind of owned more broadly by the people at large I think the capital market will expand meaningful capital market will expand and corporate activity will also capital market activity will also expand because the moment promoter sells the stock he he opens a family office and the money comes back to the uh AMC's and wealth and all sorts of activity happens
you know I I'm going ask you a followup on that question and not necessarily as someone running the company but now with the hat of the market expert of how you see that trend promoter selling and on the other hand primary issues and how they are flooding right now. Do you see this as a healthy trend or a bit of a tread with caution kind of a situation?
No, this is a healthiest thing to happen for the longer term. See shortterm there could be a price uh price spike down or whatever uh wherever there's excess supply or something like that it will kind of uh quench the market appetite but then the demand from the retail side is so sustained that we need supply of good quality paper and uh so I think the companies which are growing where there is a good demand and if the promoters are willing to accommodate the funders demand I think that is the best thing to happen I don't see it as negative at all So free float increase in Indian markets are I mean it's fantastic in every aspect except the liquidity is very very poor because the companies are relatively small and of that very small portion is listed.
So as the listing increases the the play area will become much more wider and much deeper. So because the price of the stock is not determined by who is selling or who is buying price of the stock is determined uh purely by the earnings performance. So uh I mean if if the earnings performance goes double even if the promoter wants to sell 50% 60% of the company I think uh the stock will move up.
Okay. So good times ahead. I you know just again as the market expert view and one one last question I know I'm over time and I've taken more of your time as well. Are you worried at all with the kind of lack of momentum that we are seeing right now? I think we had great time. I think this is the uh this is a period when earnings are somewhat slow.
So we we got to have patience but we are very close to the all-time high. I mean we are just about 1,000 points or something lower. So maybe four 5% 6% lower than alltime high. So we have done well. I think we need to bring some patience in the market whereby let it consolidated and as earnings pick up we should be ready with the uh with our dry powder to take the market to newer highs.
Okay. Be ready with dry powder that's important uh you know uh view coming in there from Ramdeval. Thank you so much sir for speaking with us. Pleasure as always. Keep your powder dry at a time when things are slowing down. We've done well.
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