저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
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결론: 미국은 아직 침체 직전이며, 공급충격 속 스태그플레이션 경로로 연말 전 침체 진입이 기본 시나리오다. 경기·인플레이션 전망: 소비자신뢰, 소매판매, 제조업, 주택 모두 급격히 둔화 중인데 인플레는 여전히 높아 단순 침체가 아닌 스태그플레이션이다. 코로나 공급망 충격, 러시아의 우크라이나 침공에 따른 원자재 급등, 중국 제로코로나 정책이 복합적 공급충격으로 작용한다. 주식 전망: 일반적 미국 침체 시 S&P500은 약 35%(최근 기준 약 20%) 하락하지만, 1970년대식 스태그플레이션에서는 50% 이상 하락할 수 있다. 현 수준에서 추가로 약 15% 하락 여지를 언급했다. 인플레 상황에서는 주식과 채권이 동시에 손실을 본다. 금리 전망: 10년물 금리가 3개월간 200bp 상승해 1982년 이후 최대 상승폭이다. 침체 중에도 연준이 금리를 올리면 10년물이 4% 이상으로 오를 수 있다. 인플레기대는 3% 이상으로 비앵커링 우려가 있어 연준은 긴축을 지속해야 하며, 중단(폴드)은 더 큰 문제를 낳는다고 봤다. 일본·환율: 엔화가 계속 약세이면 일본은행이 제로금리와 YCC(수익률곡선통제)를 포기할 것이며, 달러/엔 140이 정책 변화 트리거다. 외환시장개입만으로는 효과가 제한적이고 통화정책 변화가 병행돼야 한다. 비트코인: 대부분 암호화폐의 본질적 가치는 0에 가깝다고 보며, 현재 20,000달러 수준의 하락이 시장 정화 과정이라고 평가했다. 하락 이후 반등에 대해 회의적이다. 핵심 리스크: 가장 큰 꼬리위험은 지정학적 리스크다. 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 악화, 이스라엘-이란 관계, 대만을 둘러싼 아시아 긴장을 가장 우려한다.
다듬은 글
so you can take the new york fed to task if you want feel free they say 80 probability of a hard landing my question to you is something a little bit different are we already in some quasi recession what's your call right now um we're not yet in a recession but we're getting very close to it and my baseline is one of the hard landings if you're looking at the consumer confidence if you look at retail sales if you look at measures of manufacturing activity if you look at housing they're all slowing down very sharply at the time where inflation is still very high that's a stagflation it's not just a recession so your base case is stagflation give me some kind of levels to hold on to there in terms of inflation on the upside and and growth on the downside because various people are already saying we'll hit recession at the end of this year do you think we will and what are the numbers yeah i think that my baseline will be one of the recession by the end of this year uh i talk about stagflation because typically we have a recession inflation is low instead in this case we are facing a number of negative aggregate supply shocks when first covered then we got the russian invasion of ukraine with a sharp rising commodity prices where the zero cove tolerance policy of the chinese government these are all shocks that reduce economic growth increase inflation they're stuck flashing so we end up in a recession where inflation is high so these are exogenous shocks and you know the question is this we're already in a bar market in some equity markets on 30 on the s p 500 what's your outlook on equity markets if we're not in recession yet how much more pain is there to come let's say in equities and bonds well in a typical recession in the united states the stock prices go down by about 35 percent where only around 20 percent whenever you have a stagflation like in 1970s the stock market can fall by more than 50 because you have a double whammy one recession and the other thing is rising inflation and in this case usually when stock market does poorly the market does well and vice versa whenever however you have a rising inflation you have a balanced bear you lose on the equity side you lose also the fixed income side because a rising inflation clients a rise in optimum interest rates and losses of fixed income as well so another 15 potentially on the downside of the equity market my question to you is 200 basis points in three months on 10-year paper and that's the biggest ramp in 10-year use since 1982 yeah how much more extreme move do you expect on the benchmark 10 years as we go into that recession well if we go into this recession and the inflation rate is still high and the fed is to increase interest rates we may get to two 10-year treasuries well above four percent so with that in mind the question i asked a number of pbs which would be what's the lesser evil the fed to pause and fold or to carry on regardless because at the moment the market says 75 basis points is again going to happen in july your call fold is fully or to charge on is the right is the right call well my view folding is fully because you get the anchoring of inflation inflation expectation and you end up not only with high inflation but you end up also with recession in that situation because you have negative supply shocks so like in the 70s if you are behind the curve you don't avoid the recession you still get inflation do you think inflation expectations are in unanchored territory to sort of channel bullard overnight well the latest numbers about influential expectations are well above three percent and if we're folding right now they're gonna go much higher so the fed has no choice keep on tight i think even if that's gonna lead to a hard landing let's talk about the bank of japan so george soros broke the bank of england i know that was on a currency peg do you think the market how do you think the bank of japan is going to play from here who can break the bank of japan can anybody well if the yen keeps on falling and it's going to fall more given the divergence between poj policy and other central banks at some point inflation is going to become a problem for the boj and they're going to give up on their zero policy rate and under trying to control the yield on the 10-year jgbs so i think that another 10 percent fall of the end would imply changing policy by the bj what's the trigger point on on yen nouriel for a switch well about 140.
and do you see that perhaps stepping back from your curve control this year do you think we could trade 140 and break field curve control this year yes because if you go well above 140 the boj will have to change policy and the first changing pulse is going to be to change the yield control curve policy and go above 0.25 on the jpgs and allow that from a global perspective i mean there was a hint that we could have had g2 intervention on the end u.s and bank of japan do you think that that's what we might get do you think there's a risk of concerted intervention on the end of it trades at 140.
well if you have forex intervention without a change in monetary policy by the boj that interventions are going to be effective to stop the fall of the end so you need a combination of forex intervention to gather a changing policy effects intervention alone is not going to make much of an effect if there's not the change of policy by the blj listen i can't let you off the set without getting a sort of a boom gloom and doom view on bitcoin i'm sure you'll get it in there so come on we're down to twenty thousand i mean we could look at a number of different ways but i look at it in terms of it is cathartic it is good it will allow a market to rebase and formulate has that commentary any merit in my view the value of most cryptocurrencies is zero so we're still very far away from that so i'm still very embarrassed about the entire crypto market so you're still down on that what is the one biggest risk that we're perhaps underpricing the biggest tail risk in the world right now for you well i think that there are a series of geopolitical risks of course the war between russia and ukraine can get worse uh we don't know what's going to happen with the relation between israel and iran and there is the tension building up in asia on the issue of taiwan so i would say geopolitical risks are the things i must worry about
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